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Post by vasalos on Dec 30, 2012 11:20:26 GMT -5
I started this last year and will start it again this year. Since a previous post asked about NIT v. NCAA, here's what has to happen: 20 Wins = NIT 22 Wins = NCAA Charlotte, Richmond, Dayton are all must wins. Miami, Xavier, Butler, VCU, Temple can be losses although I think Xavier, Miami, Temple are very beatable. Following games are must wins: UPENN Charlotte Richmond Dayton UMASS GW Fordham St. Bonas St. Joe's URI Duq GW St. Louis Following games can be losses: Miami Xavier Butler VCU Team Rankings gives us a 38% chance of making the big dance: www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/bracketology/We are currently in the following brackets: gmoneysportspage.blogspot.ca/We got bounced out of the following brackets even though we had a win. Siena brought down our RPI: herestotheacc.blogspot.com/seedmadness.home.comcast.net/~seedmadness/dailybracket.wordpress.com/Since our RPI dropped to #46, we are more of a high NIT seed than a low NCAA seed. Miami is going to be a big game since they are projected a #10 seed... www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
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Post by ltrain38 on Dec 30, 2012 12:35:53 GMT -5
I'm very optimistic at what this team can do and think we should win at least 20 regular season games. I'm not convinced that Xavier and UMass are tossups - I'll be disappointed if we lose those games. Still, it always helps to get some noteworthy non-conference wins and right now, we don't have anything approaching that. Wednesday will have a lot to do with which tournament we get invited to in March.
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Post by vasalos on Dec 30, 2012 12:51:15 GMT -5
UMASS is a must win. Just so I'm clear, below are the must wins:
UPENN Charlotte Richmond Dayton UMASS GW Fordham St. Bonas St. Joe's URI Duq GW St. Louis
Following games can be losses: Miami Xavier Butler VCU
Xavier is very beatable but January's schedule is brutal. I'm expecting road losses at Xavier and VCU; Butler is out of our league at this point.
If we have 22 wins by the end of conference play, the A10 tournament will just solidify a higher NCAA seed. 20 wins and the A10 tournament will be critical to get into the Dance.
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rcoz
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Post by rcoz on Dec 30, 2012 13:03:15 GMT -5
i think 19 and 10 and then they would have to take 1 in the tourney and i am not sure on that one. i am hoping 20 wins
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Post by luhoopsfan on Dec 30, 2012 15:14:23 GMT -5
Just win Wednesday
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2012 17:00:53 GMT -5
Must beat SLU
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Post by vasalos on Jan 1, 2013 8:18:42 GMT -5
Heading into tomorrow night's game, we still have a 47 RPI. Even though that's good enough to be a bubble team, I think we are a high NIT seed at this point. The leader board of the A10 just too crowded and we need some key wins to separate ourselves from the pack. Tomorrow night will provide much guidance towards the direction of our destiny. Lets hope our ascent continues.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2013 13:21:19 GMT -5
IMO, here's what La Salle needs to do at minimum to get into the NCAA tournament:
1) final RPI somewhere in the 40's 2) top 5 finish in the A10 standings 3) at least 20 regular season wins 4) make it to the A10 tournament semifinals
It's a tall order, but this team has the talent and desire to do it.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 1, 2013 14:59:03 GMT -5
Take care of #2 on that list and everything should fall into place.
11 A10 wins gets top 4, 20+ wins and you're likely good enough to make the Semis with one win after getting a first rd bye.
These guys are focused and are not settling for anything. CCSU was a wake up call
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 2, 2013 14:06:45 GMT -5
Kinda wish this tread hadn't originated again this year. Once it popped up last year, we played mediocre ball the rest of the year, and ended up just barely making the NIT..Now its up again, and we haven't even started playing In Conference games yet, and have only beaten subpar teams so far this year. A little premature in my book...
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Post by vasalos on Jan 2, 2013 14:27:28 GMT -5
Maybe it's a trend to break the "losing" culture. I agree with a lot of sentiments that we alumn are so used to losing, we don't know how to enjoy winning. Two years of this thread appearing is a great sign.
As just for self promotion, I ended up being right about our postseason chances. I actually think I was one of very few (maybe 2 or 3) that believed La Salle would make the NIT.
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 2, 2013 14:33:21 GMT -5
It's more of a superstitious thing than a "used to losing" thing for me. And we lost in the NIT to what is turning out to be, this year, an EXCELLENT Minnesota Team.
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Post by theneumann64 on Jan 2, 2013 14:49:38 GMT -5
I have no problem with this thread as it is currently constructed. It's just laying out what we would need to do in his mind for each tournament.
It's not saying "Will be be a 3 or a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament" so it's really not any sort of bad karma at all I don't think.
I think it will take at least 11 wins in the A-10, plus a Semi Final appearance in Brooklyn to even be in the NCAA discussion.
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big5vet
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Post by big5vet on Jan 2, 2013 16:56:58 GMT -5
I think the discussion on this board is constructive, informative, well reasoned, and supports the program. It's good to read the varied opinions about post season play. Maybe because of the long drought, I'd be satified to return to the NIT. 19 or 20 wins should get us that invitation. If we went on to win a couple of games, it could be a nice boost for the Explorers in a few ways - recruiting, some national exposure, tournament seasoning for the non-seniors. But I sure WANT to go to the NCAA tournament. The previous message said 22 wins which should do it. I also think a top 4 conference finish with 10 wins plus reaching the tourney semis could conceivably do it also.
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Post by La Salle 08 on Jan 2, 2013 17:02:22 GMT -5
This discussion is what message boards are for. Keep it going Lou.
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Post by theneumann64 on Jan 2, 2013 17:03:39 GMT -5
Kinda wish this tread hadn't originated again this year. Once it popped up last year, we played mediocre ball the rest of the year, and ended up just barely making the NIT..Now its up again, and we haven't even started playing In Conference games yet, and have only beaten subpar teams so far this year. A little premature in my book... Not to pick on you man, but we were a 3 seed in the NIT. How is that "just barely making it?"
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Jan 2, 2013 18:48:21 GMT -5
Doesn't exactly work that way though. Of the 20 teams behind them, eight or nine were automatic bids. Also, NIT schedules regionally, as evidenced by the east coast / east coast / south / west coast brackets (outside of the few automatics.) Finally, it would have been absurd to have La Salle in the same bracket as Drexel and St. Joe's. Almost none of the NIT bracketologists (and there are like 5 of them) had La Salle in. Nitology.com for example. Finally, there is Statsheet, who predicted La Salle as an 8 seed based purely around an S-Curve. explorerreport.com/la-salle-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-la-salle-as-nit-eight-seed-03-08-2012Thus, our final at large bids appear in the 9-13 seed range, while automatic bids from weaker conferences fill out the lowest seeds. We also take into account the fact that some of our projected NCAA BUBBLE teams will wind up in the NIT, some of our NIT BUBBLE teams will wind up in the CBI, and so on.
~Joe Fedorowicz Philahoops.com
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ericmurry
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Post by ericmurry on Jan 2, 2013 19:10:15 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, everyone on the previous board was shocked La Salle made the NIT, let alone getting a #3 seed.
That's why they were on cloud 9 even though La Salle lost the NIT opener, at home.
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 2, 2013 19:38:54 GMT -5
EM is correct. Especially after the Fordham loss. There was little hope on this board that we would be NIT bound.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 2, 2013 19:47:13 GMT -5
March 12, 2011
Nominate | Report
Posted: 3/10/2012 5:55 PM RE: The Official La Salle BB Post Season Thread NCAA Locks: Temple St. Louis Xavier
NIT Locks: St. Joe's UMASS Dayton St. Bonas (unless they win the final)
Root hard for St. Bonas tomorrow. I think there's a chance that if they win the conference tournament, La Salle may be able to sneak a spot in the NIT with their absence.
People called me nuts when I posted this, but low and behold, St. Bonas won the conference tournament and La Salle got in.
What's most important at this point is just enjoying the games and winning! I do like the post season banter as it evokes some strong emotions and creates good energy.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 20:43:24 GMT -5
Doesn't exactly work that way though. Of the 20 teams behind them, eight or nine were automatic bids. Also, NIT schedules regionally, as evidenced by the east coast / east coast / south / west coast brackets (outside of the few automatics.) Finally, it would have been absurd to have La Salle in the same bracket as Drexel and St. Joe's. Almost none of the NIT bracketologists (and there are like 5 of them) had La Salle in. Nitology.com for example. Finally, there is Statsheet, who predicted La Salle as an 8 seed based purely around an S-Curve. explorerreport.com/la-salle-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-la-salle-as-nit-eight-seed-03-08-2012Thus, our final at large bids appear in the 9-13 seed range, while automatic bids from weaker conferences fill out the lowest seeds. We also take into account the fact that some of our projected NCAA BUBBLE teams will wind up in the NIT, some of our NIT BUBBLE teams will wind up in the CBI, and so on.
~Joe Fedorowicz Philahoops.com Please, don't reference NITology like it's some type of valid site. If I remember correctly, his accuracy rate is historically very low. And surprise, surprise. The guy who runs it is a St Joe's grad who took the Bracketology course that Joey Lunardi gives. Shocking that he didn't have La Salle in. So even if La Salle should have been seeded lower, they were firmly in because all these wannabee NIT bracket sites had no clue. Ghost of don't believe everything you read on the Interweb.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Jan 2, 2013 21:29:14 GMT -5
Well, believe what you may, but Statsheet used math to do their statistical analysis.
And they had La Salle as one of the last four.
EDIT: And Mike missed four last year, but hasn't missed more than three every year. And his NCAA predictions have outperformed Lunardi.
~Joe Fedorowicz Philahoops.com
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Post by durenduren on Jan 2, 2013 23:06:32 GMT -5
Well, believe what you may, but Statsheet used math to do their statistical analysis. And they had La Salle as one of the last four. Yeah, think that'll be changing with that Miami bruising.
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Post by sawdoctors on Jan 2, 2013 23:08:57 GMT -5
Please delete this thread
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Post by lasallerules1978 on Jan 2, 2013 23:16:36 GMT -5
Well, believe what you may, but Statsheet used math to do their statistical analysis. And they had La Salle as one of the last four. EDIT: And Mike missed four last year, but hasn't missed more than three every year. And his NCAA predictions have outperformed Lunardi. ~Joe Fedorowicz Philahoops.com Missed four when? Was it as of march or as of January 1. You guys put stock in these things when they are not apples to aplples comparisons. Let the season play out and stop speculating as of January 1 it's useless.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 3, 2013 6:39:51 GMT -5
No reason to jump off the bridge folks. 22 wins and victories over St. Louis, Dayton, Richmond still keep us eligible. At this point, we look NIT bound if we hit 20 wins. The Miami game informs us that we are more of a NIT team than a NCAA team. Conference play will be huge.
Playing teams like Miami regardless of the result helps us. Our RPI is still 43 and forecasted RPI is 59. So our season is very much alive.
Now the team gets to take out their anger on UPENN. Then we have a brutal January schedule. Charlotte, Richmond, Dayton are must wins so we have to go on a 4 game win streak. As always, one game at a time.
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Post by ltrain38 on Jan 3, 2013 18:05:53 GMT -5
I think we need to win the next five to keep any NCAA shot alive. Need 2-2 out of Butler, VCU, Temple, St. Louis. Otherwise, our only way in is three wins in Brooklyn. This is still a very good team, but we only had two chances for big wins in the OOC and both against teams that, because of their size, were not good match-ups. Season's not over, but we're clearly in NIT territory right now.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 4, 2013 10:54:24 GMT -5
Scouring the NCAA projected brackets today, I couldn't believe my eyes. La Salle made one bracket as the last team in. Now, I think this bracket is wrong; I don't think our team is a NCAA team right now. But our RPI is really helping us out stay within reach of the NCAA tourney and our conference schedule will help us as VCU (38) , Butler (11), Temple (32), St. Louis (51) and UMASS (40) will help sustain a legit RPI. As of today, I am projecting our team to be a #1 NIT seed. Below is the bracket I was referencing to: seedmadness.home.comcast.net/~seedmadness/Enjoy the game this weekend everyone.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2013 14:26:57 GMT -5
The problem with relying on our current RPI is it involves a very heavy SOS which won't be the same after we get through the bottom half of the A10. Our year end RPI ceiling is where it is right now. It can't get better unless we continue to win 75% of our games... and then some more. And while the numbers don't help the A10, we all know how hard it is to go at least 12-4 in the A10. Our program record is what... 10-6.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 5, 2013 16:29:31 GMT -5
A10 conference play is finally here. First match up is a great one. A good defensive team against a good shooting team. Here's our chance to make up ground with the A10 leaders. Shut down Braswell and Mayfield and we win.
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