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Post by vasalos on Jan 6, 2013 19:57:53 GMT -5
First NIT projection is out courtesy of NYC Buckets. I have a lot of problems with it. We know RPI is a significant determiner in how teams are seeded. In this version, St. Joe's is ranked way to high while UMASS is way too low. I can live with La Salle as a #2 seed as of now, but no way they are a #3. There's argument that La Salle is a legit #1 seed right now in the NIT.
NIT Bracket:
1. Iowa St. 8. California 4. Illinois St. 5. Washington 3. La Salle 6. Villanova 2. Stanford 7. Georgia Tech
1. Oregon 8. Charlotte 4. Arkansas 5. St. John’s 3. St. Mary’s 6. Alabama 2. Dayton 7. Texas
1. Saint Joseph’s 8. Valparaiso 4. Santa Clara 5. Rutgers 3. Louisiana Tech 6. Southern Miss 2. Pittsburgh 7. Texas A&M
1. Iowa 8. Lehigh 4. Northern Iowa 5. Seton Hall 3. Northwestern 6. Massachusetts 2. LSU 7. South Florida
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 8, 2013 14:54:54 GMT -5
In a truly shocking develpment, Lunardi, per his twitter, has us IN at #62 potentially.
The team needs to keep winning as many games as possible against the 4 Top 50 opponents (as of right now) and not lose any games against anyone outside the Top 100 to remain in contention.
I continue to only see 2 sure-fire losses and really only the game at VCU I would consider not worth watching because of the likelihood of losing being 99.99%. The next likely losses are SLU, @ TU and @ XU...after that, I don't see anything insurmountable for this team. I like having Butler at home on their 2nd trip back to PHL in 2 weeks during the week and think we have as good a shot to win that game as any other game. Dayton and UMass at home also offer advantages as well. I'm not saying any fo the road games will be easy, but in terms of picking teams you would rather play at home or on the road we have as many at home as you would prefer and the schedule offers a lot of opportunities for road wins which count big time toward the RPI.
Winning tomorrow is going to be critical.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 8, 2013 15:20:39 GMT -5
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Post by cpico on Jan 8, 2013 17:55:24 GMT -5
In a truly shocking develpment, Lunardi, per his twitter, has us IN at #62 potentially. The team needs to keep winning as many games as possible against the 4 Top 50 opponents (as of right now) and not lose any games against anyone outside the Top 100 to remain in contention. I continue to only see 2 sure-fire losses and really only the game at VCU I would consider not worth watching because of the likelihood of losing being 99.99%. The next likely losses are SLU, @ TU and @ XU...after that, I don't see anything insurmountable for this team. I like having Butler at home on their 2nd trip back to PHL in 2 weeks during the week and think we have as good a shot to win that game as any other game. Dayton and UMass at home also offer advantages as well. I'm not saying any fo the road games will be easy, but in terms of picking teams you would rather play at home or on the road we have as many at home as you would prefer and the schedule offers a lot of opportunities for road wins which count big time toward the RPI. Winning tomorrow is going to be critical. Why would at XU be a likely loss? If that happens it would really hurt our chances at NCAA. That game should be a win. But tomorrow at Charlotte is a must win. It's a game we need to win and it's a game we should win. NO excuses.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2013 18:10:45 GMT -5
In Lunardi's S-curve ratings, only the first 49-50 make his bracket. He has to leave room for the automatic bid teams from the one-bid conferences.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 8, 2013 19:59:18 GMT -5
Oh, I get it. Thanks KJ, I honestly never spent time learning because he is a sham- he revises his bracket up to about 20 mins before it is released so its really not a prediction of anything. If he really wanted to be ballsy he would put a bracket out on Feb 1 and see how it stacks up and make predictions on a bunch of bubble teams.
The win over ND will carry SJU all season long. ND is really good and SJU played their best game of the season that night
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 8, 2013 20:01:53 GMT -5
Winning at XU is difficult no matter how good they are which is why I chalk it up as a likely loss if I am solely trying to ID the 4 games LS is pretty well guaranteed to lose. I can find 3 real quick and XU is right behind those 3. After that I'm not sure which one is loss #5
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Post by mookie on Jan 9, 2013 8:42:17 GMT -5
I agree with hoopsfan. Winning at X is always difficult. And despite their 7-6 record, I believe they are better than that. I say that because last year they struggled a bit before "turning it on" and making the tourney. They also have played some very quality opponents. I think that will help them down the road THIS season. And, until LaSalle shows they are a team that we can look at the schedule and say "this game is a win" and can be more successful on the road, I'd have to mark that game as a likely loss.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 9, 2013 8:58:27 GMT -5
We won't need a win against Xavier if we beat teams like Charlotte, Richmond, Dayton, etc. Xavier is tough to beat let alone beat them within a very tough January schedule. If we do end up losing any of the next three games, then we'll have to beat teams like Xavier, Temple, Butler.
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Post by mookie on Jan 9, 2013 9:15:02 GMT -5
I want a W over Butler...no excuses
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 9, 2013 9:42:31 GMT -5
Just looking deeper at the schedule I can see the following scenarios playing out... a nice 3-0 start to the A10 and then a tough loss at XU that is a winnable game but we can't pull it out A huge bounce-back win at home over Butler and then a total let-down game at VCU that we're "in" the whole game but never really in a position to win A nice run of 5 straight capped off by a huge win against SJU and then a similar game at Temple as at VCU, within 7-10 points the hole game but never really getting into a position to win Followed by a nice spurt of 3 games heading into the SLU game where a win for either team locks up the A10 bye and we again come up short in a game that's never quite over but that we never really have a chance to win
There's another loss somewhere in there and I fear that it's at the Bonnies in a classic trap game right before the SJU game that drops the record to 11-5 and puts the team in 5th place with a home game against Rhode Island in the 1st round followed by a rematch against VCU that we pull out in a miracle and then lose to Butler or SLU in the Semi's and either of those 2 go on to win the tourney
We get into the big dance as an 11 seed in the West Region so no one has a chance to go see the team play. The wins over Butler, SJU, Dayton and UMass boost the RPI enough and a couple tough road wins lead us to the promised land.
Maybe the gods will smile upon us and get us a date in the East Region with a game here in Philly, but that would be just too perfect, but insane at the same time.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 9, 2013 9:46:51 GMT -5
I am just worried about winning this game tonight. I know it is good fodder but I can't see how anyone can look past who we are playing each night in the A-10 save a few teams. Almost any team can come out and bite us.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 9, 2013 9:56:08 GMT -5
I'm not looking past Charlotte by any means, but I'm also not on the team. This team seems to have the ability to focus on one game at a time, which is great to see. Forget the past and future, focus on the task at hand. I'm just looking at the schedule, big-picture, and trying to see how it COULD play out. otherwise I may not be so inclined to watch.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 9, 2013 10:03:19 GMT -5
I'm not looking past Charlotte by any means, but I'm also not on the team. This team seems to have the ability to focus on one game at a time, which is great to see. Forget the past and future, focus on the task at hand. I'm just looking at the schedule, big-picture, and trying to see how it COULD play out. otherwise I may not be so inclined to watch. That wasn't directed at you hoops fan. I just said that in a general sense.
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Post by cpico on Jan 9, 2013 12:41:54 GMT -5
I agree with hoopsfan. Winning at X is always difficult. And despite their 7-6 record, I believe they are better than that. I say that because last year they struggled a bit before "turning it on" and making the tourney. They also have played some very quality opponents. I think that will help them down the road THIS season. And, until LaSalle shows they are a team that we can look at the schedule and say "this game is a win" and can be more successful on the road, I'd have to mark that game as a likely loss. I don't believe Xavier is better than their 7-6 record. Xavier is not that great of a basketball team this season. It's rare to say that, but it is the reality of the situation this year. Type of game we should win even on the road, no excuses. But tonight's game is huge. We need to start the A-10 season with a win. Beat Charlotte!
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 9, 2013 13:02:28 GMT -5
Beating Charlotte does 2 things 1 - it gets us off to a 1-0 start (obviously) but it's a ROAD win, meaning taking care of business at home means we only need to win 2 more road games all season to go 11-5, GW feels like one and @ URI feels possible as well. 2 - it gets immediate attention because of Charlotte's infalted record and attention it gathered
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2013 12:08:39 GMT -5
It's simple math using RPI and overall record. Our RPI of a 36 will pull weight and the A10 is loaded with teams with strong RPIs. Everyone doesn't want to believe that the Committee favors teams that play bubble teams regardless of result. We have enough of those types of teams on our schedule. First four out: dailybracket.wordpress.com/bracketwag.com/It is nice to see vasalos has his sources and that he is not out of touch with reality as he has been accused. However, if we go 12-4 in the A10, we will be 22-7. at that point we would likely not have an RPI of 36 maintained unless we do BETTER than 12-4 in the A10. This is because the power conferences are going to have plenty of 9, 10, 11, and 12 win teams that have better in conference RPI's than La Salle, as well as many other midmajor conferences with 13-1 and 12-2 teams. It is a long hill to climb. We still need better than 12 conference wins to get to 22+, plus we need two wins in Brooklyn, to get sniffs from the committee. The committee will take no more than 5 A10 teams, so we need to finish in the top 5 and that can only mean winning TWO games in Brooklyn. The first game will likely be against a 100+ RPI team and so it is important to win that second game which could be like a bubble burster for one team or the other.
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Post by lasalle89 on Jan 17, 2013 12:21:14 GMT -5
Did you watch G's press conference on the website. At the 2:00 mark he said yeah it feels good to beat them but "we've beat a lot of good teams. We are never surprised or overly thrilled when we beat any particular opponent." I think this was a big win. It was a good barometer of where we stand at this point in the season. I just want G to get that one big win over a top 25 team so that statement can more accurate.
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Post by lwc4591 on Jan 17, 2013 12:43:44 GMT -5
23 wins gets us in no matter what. 23-8 is very good but I don't see it happening. 21-10 with a 3 seed in the NIT is what I believe will happen.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 18, 2013 11:16:19 GMT -5
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 18, 2013 12:16:36 GMT -5
Bottom line is this, need to just keep winning, especially at home because home losses kill your RPI no matter the opponent, and grab a couple key road wins. I like our Road scheduel and think it's conducive to getting as many as 5 wins in the A10 on the road XU TU GW SBU URI
Those are all winnable games on the road, particularly the bottom 3. The first two are most difficult but I like the matchup with XU, even though they ahve the revenge factor going from last year, and Temple is a Big 5 game and a team we played tough both times last year, plus it's a Big 5 game where anything can happen.
The high-water mark for this team is probably 12-4 in the league, the low-likely # in my mind is 9-7, I think we come somewhere around 10 or 11 wins.
It feels like the progression of the program and the visibility are going to lead us to the "First 4" as a selection, hopefully they get themselves off that bubble and squarely in. Would be great to see them play at the WF Center and actually have a big crowd support, because I think even those not-affiliated ith LS but local would be on board, plus we'd have the underdog factor.
If not, let's go out west and play UCLA because that would just be awesome.
In the end, if we miss the big dance and are back in the NIT it would be mildly disappointing.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2013 13:39:55 GMT -5
If we are in the first four is it a double header in Dayton? Their fans would cheer for the A10, so it would be like a home game. Plus, I would be there, so I like that aspect. I would hate to have a game out west, and not be able to find airfare because of all the demand from the other La Salle fans.
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Post by theneumann64 on Jan 18, 2013 14:07:59 GMT -5
Not to be contrary here, but I really don't understand what the hell the point is of "bracketology" before mid-February. We've played 3 A-10 games. Are they saying we'd be in if we don't lose again? Or if we perform "as expected" the rest of the way. If that's the case, I would assume they would expect us to lose to VCU and Butler. But if we do lose both those games, I'm sure we'd drop out of these things.
I dunno, just seems like this gets earlier and earlier every year. I love the bracket stuff, ESPN's Bubble Watch, etc. Just not until a month from now.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 18, 2013 14:12:29 GMT -5
Not to be contrary here, but I really don't understand what the hell the point is of "bracketology" before mid-February. We've played 3 A-10 games. Are they saying we'd be in if we don't lose again? Or if we perform "as expected" the rest of the way. If that's the case, I would assume they would expect us to lose to VCU and Butler. But if we do lose both those games, I'm sure we'd drop out of these things. I dunno, just seems like this gets earlier and earlier every year. I love the bracket stuff, ESPN's Bubble Watch, etc. Just not until a month from now. I agree. They were doing bracketology before the season started. It is insane.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 18, 2013 15:10:40 GMT -5
bracketology = marketing 101 to get people to watch regular season games.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2013 15:28:17 GMT -5
the percent chance thing makes sense. RPI, to a certain extent, yes. even though we know they by rule can't stay the same, they either must go up or go down depending on what opponents do which is outside of our control.
but picking seed numbers and pods and opponents and which region they can play in EVEN IN MARCH - until the resumes are all in I think it's a waste of time!
I suppose the only way you can guarantee La Salle is a 12 seed is not only by saying that we will beat VCU or Butler, but it also implies that VCU or Butler wins 10 of their next 14 games as well. And that's not a given, nor is it a given to think that Villanova or Penn State won't tank and lose 7 games out of 8, ruining our RPI that way. It's just too soon to start making up seed numbers, without so much information being available yet.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 18, 2013 16:06:08 GMT -5
I jus think it's fun and exciting to know that up until this point La Salle has done the necessary things to remain in the hunt for a spot. I don't know what the basis is to know what the future assumptions are but it's exciting to look and say the mroe games we win the better chance we have to get in. It's better than the alternative of knowing that there is basically no shot to get in. It makes the wins more rewarding and the losses more devastating, it's like a terrible drug.
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Post by mookie on Jan 18, 2013 18:32:16 GMT -5
Basically, Bracketology = BCS Standings
Just there so people can track it as "if the season ended today". Also provides ammunition for fans of schools who end up not gettin in despite being projected to be in...
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Post by vasalos on Jan 23, 2013 20:57:25 GMT -5
Hello Tournament. Keep winning boys!
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Post by goexplorers on Jan 24, 2013 13:32:43 GMT -5
We now have a 13-5 record, 32 RPI, 47 SoS, 4-4 vs top 100. Those are pretty nice credentials. One problem is that the 4 wins came at home and the 4 losses came on the road. We have to win a quality road game or two.
To get in, we have to win 1 of the following 3...@vcu, @tu, @slu. Furthermore, don't lose any of the other games vs SJU, Bona, Dukes, Fordham, GW (2), UMass, URI. That's a 9-2 finish, and a 22-7 regular season. Go 1-1 in Brooklyn and we're in.
Given the schedule, I think that's totally doable.
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