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Post by mookie on Jul 15, 2015 15:45:06 GMT -5
I did it for you. Here are the lowest minutes per game in the A-10 last year ... 6th man: 17.4 (St. Bonaventure) 7th man: 10.2 (George Washington) 8th man: 7.0 (St. Joseph's of PA) 9th man: 5.4 (George Washington) Those are minimums. We are, if you squint and wish, 8 players deep. We're effectively ... what? Price and Roberts are known. Our backcourt is now two sophomores. Our front court is made of up two guys who will be expected to average about 20 minutes more per game than they've combined for in their careers to date. Our 7th man is Rohan. Our 8th man is a mid-level true freshman. Lewis leaves a hole. You don't have to like Lewis or like Lewis' numbers or anything to understand that he leaves a hole because we were a short roster before a guy who average 27 minutes per game walked. We're much, much shorter now. I hear what you are saying but try this on for size and let me know if you feel differently. '15-'16 Time Distribution Easy cases: 1)Price : averaged 32 mpg last year; will likely bump up to 35/36; no big deal 2)Roberts: averaged 29 mpg last year; will likely bump up to 34/35; no big deal This accounts for 70 of 200 minutes (35%) 3)Stukes: averaged 23 mpg last year; will likely bump up to 30 - 32; I see that as a plus since I like him better than KL. YMMV. So we have about 50% of the returning minutes accounted for between those 3, which frankly is something a lot of teams would like to have a handle on. Moving on beyond the low hanging fruit, here we go 4)Eugene: IMO, if he had been eligible, he would have averaged 20 mpg last year even with JW and SZ in the lineup. We really lacked a 6'7" body and someone who could score and pass. Thus, he would have easily taken 20 mpg from KL and DJ. I could see him going from a pro forma 20 mpg to 30 mpg next year. Yes, it sucks that we lose SZ and JW, but he is the best alternative that G could get in the frontcourt for this year, so 30 mpg is a reasonable ask. 6) Johnnie: IMO, he should have averaged 15 mpg last year. I won't dredge up old posts, but there is plenty on the record on that front from me. I could see him going from a pro forma 15 mpg to 25 mpg next year. I also can see him with many 30+ mpg games and earning more time as the season goes on. I will take him over KL in a NY City minute. YMMV. BTW, he likely will be our 6th man and my projected 25 mpg is about 50% higher than the A10's lowest mpg total last year, so that should not be a problem. 7) Brown : averaged 8 mpg last year; will likely bump up to 15-20; no big deal; he hustles, provides glue and has shown an increasing ability to score down low and away from the hoop. i am not expecting double digits, but I think he can deliver more than DJ and KL last year stat-wise. That is a good thing. As our 7th man, he projects out at 50-100% more mpg than last season's low, so we should be in good stead here. It's also nice that our 7th man has actual Sweet 16 experience and is a great "hustle leader." We now have 173 of 200 minutes accounted for. 5) TW, our projected 5th starter had 3 mpg last year, but let's face it that is not a shocker with SZ and JW in the frontcourt. As many have said, and which I will repeat, TW's performance will be a huge driver in whether we finish above or below the .500 mark we have averaged the last two years. I project him out at 20 mpg and we will need that since you cannot coach height or length. I think Tony will be a good performer. I like the way he moves around the hoop. I like the way he finishes. I think he will be a breakout A-10 performer. Lots to look forward to when Mr. (aka Dr.) G goes to Washington. 8) Karl Harris: I think he has an opportunity to be a sniper by season's end if our guards can move the ball around and hit him in space. Teams will slack off of him with JP, CR and JS in the lineup. Cheers to him making them pay for that. I foresee an average of 7 mpg next year. There you have it. Have at it! Nice breakdown. I don't think Price or Roberts should see their minutes exceed roughly 30-32 mpg game. At that point, they'll probably be pacing themselves or be really gassed to the point where they start just throwing up shots rather than working to create for themselves or others. I am definitely concerned about the players we have for several reasons: Stukes - disappeared for a few games last year and his jumper is not that strong after a full year to work on it in practice Shuler - very limited playing time last season (unproven) Eugene - we basically know nothing about him (unrpoven) Washington - no playing time last year (unproven) Brown - energy guy but undersized to play the 4 and limited skills-wise Roberts - disappeared for a few games and struggled early to adapt Harris - reports are he's simply not ready Optimistic Stukes - another offseason to work on his jumper and has a year of experience. Not expecting a huge jump in performance but rather in consistency which should help a great deal Shuler - showed an ability to score and hit the 3; epitome of "change of pace" guard (vs Stukes) Eugene - reports are that he's a solid A10-level player already and could/should be counted on for roughly 10/7 per game Washington - reports are that he's made tremendous strides and he performed very well in the team trip Brown - played in good spurts last season and played well on the trip as well; could be counted on to provide a boost for 5-10 mpg every game as opposed to playing here and there last year Roberts - he should be much more consistent next year after playing a full year following a redshirt Harris - he doesn't have to be "ready", just needs to play hard when given minutes and can spend the year focusing on certain things during the game while working on other aspects of his game in practice (ie 3-and-D, solid D, etc) There's definitely concern with so many unproven players but I think this is a good time to develop these players and REALLY see what they can do and what they can't. It will lay the groundwork for identifying what type of recruits we need to focus on as well as roles for the following year when the other recruits become eligible. Remember, if the other recruits are legit, they will be starting by midyear and what was once viewed as a weakness this season (depth) will become a strength because a starter or 2 may become a leading bench player OR it will just lead to that much more competitive practices which will only help in the development of everybody.
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Post by mookie on Jul 15, 2015 15:46:31 GMT -5
Everyone is going round and round whether Lewis' leaving is a good thing or a bad thing. The reality is it's a thing. He is gone. The team has 10 guys counting Harris that are on the team. It is going to be what it is. The team will make due. Hopefully, everyone will step and make this thing work. It will certainly give guys lots of experience. Exactly...
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Post by belfieldhappyhour on Jul 18, 2015 13:04:08 GMT -5
Iona has some company
Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein 7m7 minutes ago La Salle transfer Khalid Lewis told @cbssports he will visit Baylor, Nevada, and TCU in August. Recently visited Iona. Immediately eligible.
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Post by stlexplorer on Jul 20, 2015 8:50:11 GMT -5
Some good teams coming a calling for Lewis
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Post by explorer88 on Jul 20, 2015 8:58:22 GMT -5
Some good teams coming a calling for Lewis Goes to show the later it gets the more desperate the bigger schools become to land players. That is why it is always so important to get targeted high school kids early for La Salle and other schools and not let them get out of the early signing period. Once they get out in the Spring their options become much wider if they have played well.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 9:29:50 GMT -5
Some good teams coming a calling for Lewis Right? Almost like there's a vast middle ground between superstar and "bad player who we are better off not having at all".
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Post by 23won on Jul 20, 2015 10:03:52 GMT -5
Baylor runs a pretty disciplined offensive scheme. Can't see that plauing out well if it were to come to pass. Just because there is interest doesn't move him into superstar or better middle ground status.
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 10:07:42 GMT -5
I'm surprised too by the teams that are showing interest. I do think it's still premature to make any conclusions. Let's see where he ends up at and what he does. If he ends up at a high major and performs at a level higher than what he did here, then I'll admit I was wrong and then raise the question did he really improve that much this offseason OR did G completely misuse him?
If he tranfers down and puts up good numbers, I won't be that impressed. If he transfers down and puts up similar numbers or worse, then I think it should be obvious that we are better off without him.
Keep in mind though, I'm not sure anybody ever said he was a bad player.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 10:40:06 GMT -5
If he transfers down and puts up similar numbers, we're still better off with him than with an empty roster spot. Which remains my only point of debate here, its not that his role is being filled by someone I like less or think isn't ready, its that there's no one to fill his role at all. We have 8 actually recruited players. That's shallow and bad.
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Post by a10champion15 on Jul 20, 2015 10:50:17 GMT -5
Depth is overrated in this conference. If our top 7 guys stay healthy we will be fine but I know that's asking a lot.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 10:51:17 GMT -5
Talented depth is overrated. Actual mid-major recruited depth is not.
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 12:00:44 GMT -5
I hear what you're saying but we're not at the point where we have an "empty" roster. 7 players is really good...8 is a luxury. 9 and you're just at the point of not getting everybody enough playing time and if you are, then your best players are sitting for far too long.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 12:15:22 GMT -5
2014-15: Brown/Shuler 2013-14: Brown/Dunn 2012-13: Brown/Dunn 2011-12: Zack/Dunn 2010-11: Stefan/White 2009-10: Grant/White 2008-09: Partin/Williams 2007-08: Griffin/Diaz 2006-07: Diaz/Grimes 2005-06: Fadipe/Diaz
Those are our 8-9 players in every season Giannini recruited. Guys like Brown and Dunn and Diaz aren't world beaters by any means, but they can handle a minor role in the A-10. A true freshman and ... leaves a hole. And that's before you start talking about injuries and/or foul trouble and/or the fact that half our 8 recruited players have less than 150 career minutes.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 12:16:34 GMT -5
(Which isn't to say, again, that I think losing Khalid is a killer. I think losing *anyone* 1-8 at that point would have been a killer.)
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 12:36:37 GMT -5
I guess what it comes down to how much you value Lewis and how much you trust G to find playing time to develop the younger guys.
I don't believe Lewis makes enough of an impact to really say losing him is going to cost us any games. Like I said in a previous post, he didn't win us and games nor did he lose us any games which essentially made him a non-factor. Again, my view on him. If Lewis sticks around, I don't trust G enough to find playing time for Shuler (Harris to a lesser extent) next season if Lewis is around. I believe G will go to who he knows (Lewis) for several years as a safety net, which doesn't always benefit the team.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 12:39:35 GMT -5
When we lose every game the entire year, you'll admit I was right.
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 12:49:02 GMT -5
ha! 0 chance of that happening then
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jul 20, 2015 12:51:06 GMT -5
I think G does a better job coaching w/ fewer options so maybe that's a plus. Smart guys like him sometimes over-think and outsmart themselves trying to find an edge or a matchup advantage. If G doesn't have the option to shuttle guys in and out or be loyal to maybe it make sit easier for him w/ fewer decisions to make.
When Zack got hurt you could argue it was G's best coaching job in his tenure here b/c he was forced to go w/ 4 guards and 1 big. When he had 4 guards and 2 bigs at his disposal there was a loyalty and matchup piece he seemed to try to play and the team never felt like it was really in a groove. Next season he has 7 guys to pick from and the game will dictate who should be out there more than anything.
Not a criticism of G, but I know a lot of really smart, successful people and it's not uncommon for them to struggle when there are too many options available or combinations. Sometimes choosing between vanilla and chocolate is better than trying to find the right flavor at Baskin Robbins.
I don't know if I made any sense, it's really hot today.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 13:18:22 GMT -5
It makes sense, but I'd argue its not scalable. The no-Zack short bench was fine for a postseason run. Over 30 games, it wouldn't have worked out.
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 13:21:37 GMT -5
I think G does a better job coaching w/ fewer options so maybe that's a plus. Smart guys like him sometimes over-think and outsmart themselves trying to find an edge or a matchup advantage. If G doesn't have the option to shuttle guys in and out or be loyal to maybe it make sit easier for him w/ fewer decisions to make. When Zack got hurt you could argue it was G's best coaching job in his tenure here b/c he was forced to go w/ 4 guards and 1 big. When he had 4 guards and 2 bigs at his disposal there was a loyalty and matchup piece he seemed to try to play and the team never felt like it was really in a groove. Next season he has 7 guys to pick from and the game will dictate who should be out there more than anything. Not a criticism of G, but I know a lot of really smart, successful people and it's not uncommon for them to struggle when there are too many options available or combinations. Sometimes choosing between vanilla and chocolate is better than trying to find the right flavor at Baskin Robbins. I don't know if I made any sense, it's really hot today. I think what you said makes sense. I've said before my thoughts were G lucked into that line-up because of injury. Teams in the A10 were already very familiar with Jerrell so they had more time to prepare and scout him. The teams we faced in the tourney didn't have that luxury and combine it with the fact that Jerrell delivered at the FT line set us up for great success. With Zack's return it was easy to see why we'd do even better but that wasn't the case and the team's flaws were exposed, leaving G to look confused as to what to do at this point. It's really tough to sit a big who's older and has been very productive when few other teams in the conference could match it. If G was more business-like in that sense and didn't show loyalty or favorites, then having Lewis would be nice in the event of injury or foul trouble. But since this team needs to think long term and develop it's players AND because IMO Lewis is really not going to win us any games then it makes sense... They'll definitely struggle but having Lewis isn't going to make a big enough difference that we'll 3 or 4 more games, I don't believe he'll win us even 1. Again, just my opinion...
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 13:25:35 GMT -5
If G was more business-like in that sense and didn't show loyalty or favorites, then having Lewis would be nice in the event of injury or foul trouble. But since this team needs to think long term and develop it's players AND because IMO Lewis is really not going to win us any games then it makes sense... Mostly agree here too. I think our best lineup had Lewis as our 5th option at the 1-3 spots, I just also happen to think that the 5th option there would have gotten a lot of PT and been pretty important overall, especially if we plan to run 4 at a time.
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 13:26:14 GMT -5
It makes sense, but I'd argue its not scalable. The no-Zack short bench was fine for a postseason run. Over 30 games, it wouldn't have worked out. I actually thought at the time we were fortunate to be getting by without him but after watching the last 2 years, I go back and forth on it because then we're saying we're a better team without Zack when I don't believe that to be the case. I think utilizing Zack differently and not playing him and Jerrell together often would've led to more success...guess we'll never know
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Post by mookie on Jul 20, 2015 13:30:01 GMT -5
If G was more business-like in that sense and didn't show loyalty or favorites, then having Lewis would be nice in the event of injury or foul trouble. But since this team needs to think long term and develop it's players AND because IMO Lewis is really not going to win us any games then it makes sense... Mostly agree here too. I think our best lineup had Lewis as our 5th option at the 1-3 spots, I just also happen to think that the 5th option there would have gotten a lot of PT and been pretty important overall, especially if we plan to run 4 at a time. Flip side would be if it weren't for his loyalty, how many players would not have ended up here? There was a role for Lewis here had he stayed, I'll admit that. But I think we wouldn't see much of a difference in level of play or results had Lewis stayed. Since that was my assumption, I'm willing to take a risk and let the younger guys play together and develop. If the team struggles but the players develop so that the following season when our transfers are eligible, they'll be ready to go with minimal questions about being unproven and such. Now, if the team struggles and the players don't develop, then there's a major problem.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 13:32:12 GMT -5
Well, that could end up being another part of it. Obviously part of developing Stukes and Shuler is getting them regular PT and not yanking them on the first mistake, but another part is knowing when to get them out. Losing Lewis could lead to running those guys out there when best practice would be to let them sit and watch for a bit.
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Post by thelasallelunatic on Jul 20, 2015 15:35:37 GMT -5
Depth is overrated in this conference. If our top 7 guys stay healthy we will be fine but I know that's asking a lot. That's a bullshit statement. Dayton would've been a Sweet 16 team had they not run out of gas vs Oklahoma. This was due to 2 things, not having a player over 6'6, and lack of depth. I'm not a Khalid Lewis fan, but the guy filled a role here. We were excited to get Lewis from Delaware. People forget that he did shut down Tyreek Duren 2 years ago. Duren's a high level player, not a run of the mill point guard. At 6'3, Lewis can also defend bigger guards. Again, it's tough to play 4 guards when there's only 4 guards in the rotation now.
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Post by 23won on Jul 20, 2015 15:52:01 GMT -5
I think G does a better job coaching w/ fewer options so maybe that's a plus. Smart guys like him sometimes over-think and outsmart themselves trying to find an edge or a matchup advantage. If G doesn't have the option to shuttle guys in and out or be loyal to maybe it make sit easier for him w/ fewer decisions to make. When Zack got hurt you could argue it was G's best coaching job in his tenure here b/c he was forced to go w/ 4 guards and 1 big. When he had 4 guards and 2 bigs at his disposal there was a loyalty and matchup piece he seemed to try to play and the team never felt like it was really in a groove. Next season he has 7 guys to pick from and the game will dictate who should be out there more than anything. Not a criticism of G, but I know a lot of really smart, successful people and it's not uncommon for them to struggle when there are too many options available or combinations. Sometimes choosing between vanilla and chocolate is better than trying to find the right flavor at Baskin Robbins. I don't know if I made any sense, it's really hot today. Good points
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Post by a10champion15 on Jul 20, 2015 20:06:34 GMT -5
Nearly all A10 teams don't use their depth to win. They have 5-7 really good players who carry the team. If they can get some relief from an 8th guy it doesn't hurt. A10 teams don't wear teams out with their depth with probably the exception being VCU and Dayton two years ago. I wouldn't use last years Dayton team as an example. The team was better without Robinson and Scott. Chemistry is much more important. Pollard didn't excel until they were dismissed. They weren't beating Oklahoma with or without Scott and Robinson.
This league while better recently simply doesn't recruit at this extremely high level where they can have 9-11 excellent to solid rotation guys. It just doesn't work that way.
Believe me I rather have Khalid here. I don't know how many good players we have but if our 6 guys are legitimate and Rohan/Harris provide something could be a decent middle of the pack team but who the hell knows. I said it before I rather have Lewis out there over Harris.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 20, 2015 20:42:19 GMT -5
If anything, Dayton is a counter example. After 9 games, they dismissed 21.5% of their average minutes and had other guys ready to step in.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2015 22:18:30 GMT -5
Well if nothing else this gives us something to talk about in the off-season.
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Xwalkonx
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Post by Xwalkonx on Jul 21, 2015 4:55:32 GMT -5
What circumstances make Lewis Immediately able to play?
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