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Post by mookie on Oct 28, 2013 9:19:04 GMT -5
ESPN Insider posted a new article projecting Best Case and Worse Case scenarios for all D1 teams.
At the moment, they have us ranked 43rd.
Best Case 20th Worse Case 79th Conference Rk 3rd
Other Notes VCU 22nd Witchia State 23rd St Louis 24th Harvard 27th Villanova 36th Boise 41st Drexel 73rd St Joes 86th Florida Gulf Coast 96th
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Post by luhoopsfan on Oct 28, 2013 11:59:01 GMT -5
I think a lot of people are over-valuing the loss of Galloway against the addition of lewis + improved play from returning players.
This is not to say Galloway wasn't a critical piece of our success, but many folks thought we would have to have everything go exactly right last season in order to overcome the loss of Earl Pettis' production. Last season seemed to go OK.
I fully expect this team to be in the NCAA tournament again in 2014.
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Post by theneumann64 on Oct 28, 2013 12:26:50 GMT -5
I honestly totally disagree. If anything, I think the loss of Galloway is being undervalued around here.
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Post by 1801olney on Oct 28, 2013 13:06:46 GMT -5
I think alot of people are over-valuing Lewis. Maybe its because he had the best game of his career against us? I personally think he will stink.
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big5vet
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Post by big5vet on Oct 28, 2013 13:17:25 GMT -5
I think 43 is about right. Initial Coaches Poll had us with 7 votes which equates to a 37 national ranking. If we win the games we are suppose to, we should dance in 2014.
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Post by mookie on Oct 28, 2013 14:00:43 GMT -5
I think the loss of Galloway will rear it's ugly head in clutch situations. I think if, and that's a big if, Garland's game steps up combined with improved play from Jerrel and Zack then we should be fine during the game.
I think it's going to be even more important that this team does not have poor starts or finishes at either half.
My expectations for next year are for the team to continue it's post-season appearance streak. I expect the NIT with us sniffing at the Big Dance again. The following year I expect the team to be even better. So if this team makes the Dance again this year, I will expect them to go farther the following. I've heard great things about Lewis but I'm skeptical about him so I'm not going to have too high expectations...I will however, hope he's able to provide 8-9 ppg and 2-3 apg as a player who should be able to get to the hoop and finish (either the play or at the line) when the team needs a basket and shots aren't falling. Of course, I'm also hoping Jerrel is that player where we can dump the ball down low to him whenever we need a basket so that we don't have multiple possessions in a row where we don't score (ie. 3 or more).
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Post by lasallescreamer on Oct 28, 2013 14:28:57 GMT -5
Ramon was a great player for us, but he was not Mich Jordan. Good programs graduate players like Ramon every year and finds ways to replace them. Add. playing time for Garland will help as will add confidence for DJ and Sam. The Bigs should be better. The Team will be fine and if healthy, will go Dancing again.I place great emphasis on "confidence factor" and that will be higher than at any time since 1990. I would surely rather have Ramon than not- but this is a very good team. Let's Go Explorers!
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 14:50:54 GMT -5
I'd argue UNC can more easily replace a superstar than La Salle can replace a Galloway. Garland should be good to very good for us, but Galloway was just a different level everything player.
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Post by durenduren on Oct 28, 2013 14:53:56 GMT -5
I'd argue UNC can more easily replace a superstar than La Salle can replace a Galloway. Garland should be good to very good for us, but Galloway was just a different level everything player. Bingo. Mid-Majors don't just replace players like the BCS Super PAC can.
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Post by explorer88 on Oct 28, 2013 14:58:49 GMT -5
We will miss Ramon. No question in my mind that on some nights we will all be saying we miss Ramon after some games. No one on this team is going to give us the bost like Ramon did like drilling 4 deep threes in a 3 minute span like he could. Totally changed the momentum of the game sometimes.
That being said Ramon also had nights like Charlotte and Butler we he couldn't throw it in the ocean. We have more depth and our bigs should be much better than last year. Hopefully that makes up for the areas we can't replace with the loss of Ramon.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 15:06:15 GMT -5
I really don't get the belief that we'll make up for Galloway in sum. Are we not minus Galloway and plus Lewis and Davis for this season? Nothing against those two, but how is that better? I think we're conflating Galloway not leaving a gaping hole (due to Garland as a capable fill in) with not missing a beat.
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Post by durenduren on Oct 28, 2013 15:07:19 GMT -5
Maybe it's because I'm not used to being such a savvy pick, but I need to see the proof in the pudding before I talk Top 40 rankings. Still think we're prime to dance, but I'm approaching us as a pure bubble team until I have reasons to relax.
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Post by a10champion15 on Oct 28, 2013 15:34:42 GMT -5
Maybe it's because I'm not used to being such a savvy pick, but I need to see the proof in the pudding before I talk Top 40 rankings. Still think we're prime to dance, but I'm approaching us as a pure bubble team until I have reasons to relax. Exactly! It is good to keep a level head. I know we will miss Ramon...a lot. I think expectations are too high for Khalid as well. I am interested like many how the offense will function. One duo that I thought worked really well was Garland and Wright. I am most comfortable in saying we are going to be better defensively I just don't know how much our offense will take a hit without knowing how much Garland, Lewis, Zack and Wright have improved. Playing VCU and SLU at home however is a HUGE plus IF they're as potent as they were last year. I think VCU going to be incredibly good this year. Just a side note. There is another side of this as well. There is was one game where I was screaming at Ramon, the Butler game. He may have had the game winning shot but he played awful that game. He also played pretty poorly against UMass as well. Those games like very few others he simply tried to do to much.
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Post by explorerman on Oct 28, 2013 15:37:33 GMT -5
I really don't get the belief that we'll make up for Galloway in sum. Are we not minus Galloway and plus Lewis and Davis for this season? Nothing against those two, but how is that better? I think we're conflating Galloway not leaving a gaping hole (due to Garland as a capable fill in) with not missing a beat. It isn't just those two playes, it is the improvement of the roster. Can the roster replace the 17 points that Galloway averaged per night? Say Lewis averages 8 per game, Wright adds 4 ppg and Zack 2 ppg.. We are 14 ppg right there.. The team will be better defensively as we have more players and, hence, deeper. Lewis is a defensive stud where Galloway really wasn't. Galloway was really the only player that could create a shot from nothing. Duren being second. Galloway had the elite athleticism to create offense. I imagine we will see more zone which if we pass properly then out guards should be getting good looks. The question becomes does Mills shoot like the beginning of the year or the last part of the year. Will garland and Lewis improve their shooting? In total if the averages 3 points less per game, I will not cry one bit because the defense is going to be that much better. I will feel bad for whatever team's guards will have Mills and Lewis in their face. Duren is no slouch either. As with Rothstein , I imagine more of the same. Low 3 point FG percentage with an even lower 2 point FG percentage with Zack and Wright's improvement and Davis' 5 fouls and ox of a body
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 16:04:31 GMT -5
So Lewis, in half of Galloways's minutes, is going to more than make up for Galloway's loss by adding defense? I'll believe that when I see it.
Its not meant to be a knock on any player, but it almost strikes me as a knock on Galloway to just write off his loss with the expected gains coming from a young transfer and "overall improvements".
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Post by explorer88 on Oct 28, 2013 16:09:37 GMT -5
So Lewis, in half of Galloways's minutes, is going to more than make up for Galloway's loss by adding defense? I'll believe that when I see it. Its not meant to be a knock on any player, but it almost strikes me as a knock on Galloway to just write off his loss with the expected gains coming from a young transfer and "overall improvements". Not a knock at all. It is either we can't make it up or we can. There are only two answers here. We are never going to replace Ramon. We lose certain areas with him not in the program. We make up certain areas with more depth and an improved froncourt. I don't think it is an issue of replacing Ramon. The fact is we lose something without him. The team is is different and will add additional areas we didn't have prior. Whether it is enough who knows but it can only be one of two answers. We can or we can't.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 16:17:39 GMT -5
Agreed, I just don't get the assumption that worst case is we breakeven with solid potential to gain. Maybe we do, but that seems far from certain.
(The flipside is that I think we can take a step back as a team without taking a step back in W-L. So even if we don't successfully replace Galloway, we can be good enough to contend anyway.)
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Post by las71 on Oct 28, 2013 16:20:47 GMT -5
I am actually on both sides of this. I don't think we replace Ramon's athleticism and maybe more importantly his leadership but I think the confidence gained by our run and by playing alongside Ramon will be enough for us to be as good as last season. I'll be shocked if we don't make the tournament this year. The program is simply better than it has been in years and Ramon deserves some of the credit for that.
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Post by explorer88 on Oct 28, 2013 16:23:29 GMT -5
No certainties for sure MisterD. We agree on that.
G said we were 6-1 last year in games decided on the last shot. How likely is that to happen again? Not likely.
We are no lock to make the tournament. However, we do have a chance to be very good if Jerrell and Steve take their game to the next level. No doubt in my mind the guards will be steady and spectacular at times.
I just love waht I saw in Steve Zack toward the end of last year and with Jerrell that I cannot think any reason they are not making major impact on our season.
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Post by lwc4591 on Oct 28, 2013 16:42:15 GMT -5
Yes Ramon will be missed but don't get carried away like he is irreplaceable. He averaged 17 a game because he took the most shots and hardly shot lights out. His intangible was that the players really liked him plus he was good. Now getting away from Ramon we have plenty of players who can score the ball and actually I expect are rebounding to improve dramatically with a bigger team on the floor a higher percent of the time. We have five players (Duren, Garland, Wright and to a lesser degree Zack and Mills) who are offensive minded and can be counted on. I didn't include Peterson and Lewis but would not be at all surprised on some nights they score in double digits. We will be a good defensive team due to depth particularly with Brown and Davis backing up the bigs.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 17:30:33 GMT -5
Yes Ramon will be missed but don't get carried away like he is irreplaceable. He averaged 17 a game because he took the most shots and hardly shot lights out. That's pretty misleading. Galloway averaged more points per shot than the guy we're expecting to replace him and that's with team's keying on him all season long. Its not like he was some 17 points on 18 shots bulk scorer or something like that.
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Post by durenduren on Oct 28, 2013 17:51:41 GMT -5
I'm not saying Ramon's scoring is irreplaceable, but I think his game changing ability might be a void left absent. There's candidates to fill it, that's for sure. But there's no quantifiable figures that can pinpoint it. And under no terms do I think Lewis's defensive improvement will balance some combination of Ramon's offense and game changing ability.
For the first time in years, Ramon helped give character and a face to this team. That identity is going to have to evolve with his departure, or we'll fall on our faces. It's not the scoring that's got my attention, but the intangibles because I think scoring will fall in line after that (to a certain extent). We'll begin to get a picture with that first exhibition.
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expbrady03
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Post by expbrady03 on Oct 28, 2013 18:17:42 GMT -5
Hey guys, don't forget that almost every other team out there graduated impact players too and, while I agree that it's easier for the UNCs and Dukes of the world to replenish that talent, we aren't scheduled to play those teams this year. I feel like we are still firmly a tournament team and, as this squad showed last year, all you need to do is get into the dance and then all sorts of crazy things can happen. This is still the ground floor and it takes some time for the elevator to reach the penthouse. Trust in G, he will show us the way!
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 18:18:02 GMT -5
Yup. The raw points can be replaced, hell I think he only outscored Pettis per game by like 2, but he gave us a guy who could reliably score even when the other team's main goal was to prevent him from scoring. And he knew when to dish off so someone else could score when the other team was doing a good job of preventing him from scoring. And he seemed like a really good dude.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2013 18:42:55 GMT -5
The only thing I worry about with this team is health and there's nothing anyone can do about that. You just hope they make it through the season without losing anyone for a significant period of time.
The intangibles of this team don't worry me one bit. G has already said that team chemistry is a strength again. Rothstein made it a point to mention in his tweets from the other night how unselfish this team is and how they make the extra pass. As far as the team being loose, no problems there with Ty Garland on the roster. He's as free-spirited as Ramon and is well-liked by his teammates. At the open practice, I watched Ty closer than anyone, and while he struggled from beyond the arc that night, he did everything else at a high level. He defended, took care of the ball, and in particular, his shot selection was great. I remember one forced shot from him the entire practice, and that was with the shot clock running down.
Losing Ramon hurts but I go more by the philosophy that it's not so much who you lose as to what you return, and this team returns a lot plus adds a quality guard with D-1 experience and a redshirt big man who will provide solid depth behind two of the better big men in the A10.
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Post by durenduren on Oct 28, 2013 19:00:38 GMT -5
And he seemed like a really good dude. The realest thing said yet.
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Post by theneumann64 on Oct 28, 2013 19:07:12 GMT -5
I have a lot to say about this team and Ramon, but I will wait until I unleash my knowledge storm of a pre-season post sometime next week.
But long story short, we're gonna miss him. Even if we replicate his numbers exactly, we are going to miss him.
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Post by lwc4591 on Oct 28, 2013 19:16:47 GMT -5
The sky is falling, the sky is falling Ramon is gone oh what shall we do. Look we all know Ramon was a good player but he didn't do it alone it took seven or eight players to get it done. This season we will have nine players to get it done. Man after Duren, Mills and Garland graduate can you imagine the pessimism next season with only Roberts, Price, Lewis, Stukes, Peterson and new recuit playing the 1/2/3 postion. We may actually be better next season than this season and that is saying something. We will be a huge team next season with 8 players being 6-5 or bigger.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 28, 2013 21:35:31 GMT -5
Oh, trust me, I'll be like this again after this season when Duren leaves. This is the 14th season I'll have been associated with the school and Galloway and Duren will be the 4th and 5th serious impact players I've seen. Losing one matters huge. Last season was special, but we're losing the most important player off that squad. Not pessimistic, that's not my thing, it's just balancing. You can't just plow through and pretend we aren't inherently different.
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Post by calsufan on Oct 28, 2013 21:36:17 GMT -5
I honestly totally disagree. If anything, I think the loss of Galloway is being undervalued around here. I agree with you 100%. I think the dynamics of the team will change without Ramon. Put me down as worried.
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