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Post by 23won on May 13, 2024 7:10:28 GMT -5
While waiting for the Khalil back/not back mystery to end, here are a few thoughts for discussion.
The roster will be a function of what’s left in the NIL fund. I gather Brantley is asking for a big number and we don’t have it in the till. I love Khalid’s heart but at this point, I am more in favor of using the NIL money to get
A big that can play D at least and another scorer who has a good handle and play above average D, ideally a 6-4” guard who can guard a 3 if needed - I will call these the “final roster pieces”
With this, I think we have decent returning scoring production potential with D and chemistry being the question marks. Based on Big 10 footage I’d actually rather have Lilley taking the lion’s share of minutes without Rokas, as it would be easier to manage from the bench. If Lilley can work on positionial scoring with the guards and get in good shape that would be a big development and I think he is capable of a breakout of sorts. I realize Rokas had a good finish for r last year, but without the killer Bs feeding him would he be able to create scoring? More likely not a big increase over last year
Here is my way too early scoring projection assuming Brantley doesn’t return
Jones 7 ( with upside to 10)
Acker 12
White 14
Shepherd 12
Lilley 7
Tunde 8
Marrero 7
“Final roster pieces” 6
Zan 3
That is decent. Again D is key and these are early projections so factor in your own handicapping.
If Brantley comes back, the distribution changes a bit but you have decent o production either way.
Last year we were too reliant on two scorers. Hopefully this makeup with better balance on scoring helps in the W column. Time will tell but I like having more weapons for Fran to coach up
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Post by explorer88 on May 13, 2024 8:09:54 GMT -5
This team will not average 76 points a game next year. If we did we probably win 20 games. Not going to happen. We lost our 4 of our top 5 scorers last year.
You projection per player doesn't seem incredibly off but in totality it does not look possible.
I would say Lilley is too high, the final roster pieces won't average 6 points per game, and Acker/Shep/White combo of 38 points per game is too high. The rest looks doable.
I think high 60's is the ceiling for this team right now.
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Post by victoriouslasalle on May 13, 2024 9:26:52 GMT -5
While waiting for the Khalil back/not back mystery to end, here are a few thoughts for discussion. The roster will be a function of what’s left in the NIL fund. I gather Brantley is asking for a big number and we don’t have it in the till. I love Khalid’s heart but at this point, I am more in favor of using the NIL money to get A big that can play D at least and another scorer who has a good handle and play above average D, ideally a 6-4” guard who can guard a 3 if needed - I will call these the “final roster pieces” With this, I think we have decent returning scoring production potential with D and chemistry being the question marks. Based on Big 10 footage I’d actually rather have Lilley taking the lion’s share of minutes without Rokas, as it would be easier to manage from the bench. If Lilley can work on positionial scoring with the guards and get in good shape that would be a big development and I think he is capable of a breakout of sorts. I realize Rokas had a good finish for r last year, but without the killer Bs feeding him would he be able to create scoring? More likely not a big increase over last year Here is my way too early scoring projection assuming Brantley doesn’t return Jones 7 ( with upside to 10) Acker 12 White 14 Shepherd 12 Lilley 7 Tunde 8 Marrero 7 “Final roster pieces” 6 Zan 3 That is decent. Again D is key and these are early projections so factor in your own handicapping. If Brantley comes back, the distribution changes a bit but you have decent o production either way. Last year we were too reliant on two scorers. Hopefully this makeup with better balance on scoring helps in the W column. Time will tell but I like having more weapons for Fran to coach up Disagree with your assessment of the Jocious loss if I am understanding it. Geez as a back up center alone he could mean a lot to next years team. |
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Post by diehardexplorer on May 13, 2024 9:54:51 GMT -5
This team will not average 76 points a game next year. If we did we probably win 20 games. Not going to happen. We lost our 4 of our top 5 scorers last year. You projection per player doesn't seem incredibly off but in totality it does not look possible. I would say Lilley is too high, the final roster pieces won't average 6 points per game, and Acker/Shep/White combo of 38 points per game is too high. The rest looks doable. I think high 60's is the ceiling for this team right now. last year people were worried about replacing the 40 pts per game they lost with josh, the twins and mamadou leaving the program. guess what, the team increased their scoring from 69.8 to 72.7 pts per game, and that was with losing 3 of our top 6 scorers and only adding andres, tunde and ryan to the rotation. assuming khalil is gone, we'll lose around 47 ppg but between increased production i expect from shep, tunde, andres and ryan along with talented newcomers in jahlil, demetrius, eric and deuce, i will be surprised if they don't score in the 70 ppg range again. the staff is also not done adding to the roster. have you ever seen lilley play live and in person? |
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Post by explorer88 on May 13, 2024 10:07:25 GMT -5
This team will not average 76 points a game next year. If we did we probably win 20 games. Not going to happen. We lost our 4 of our top 5 scorers last year. You projection per player doesn't seem incredibly off but in totality it does not look possible. I would say Lilley is too high, the final roster pieces won't average 6 points per game, and Acker/Shep/White combo of 38 points per game is too high. The rest looks doable. I think high 60's is the ceiling for this team right now. last year people were worried about replacing the 40 pts per game they lost with josh, the twins and mamadou leaving the program. guess what, the team increased their scoring from 69.8 to 72.7 pts per game, and that was with losing 3 of our top 6 scorers and only adding andres, tunde and ryan to the rotation. assuming khalil is gone, we'll lose around 47 ppg but between increased production i expect from shep, tunde, andres and ryan along with talented newcomers in jahlil, demetrius, eric and deuce, i will be surprised if they don't score in the 70 ppg range again. the staff is also not done adding to the roster. have you ever seen lilley play live and in person? Yes, I have seen him twice. My problem is I don't see another guard coming into the program that can get our guys easy buckets to increase their production. If that does come to fruition then the 70's is in sight. It won't be 76 no matter what. Only 2 teams averaged that in the A-10 last year. |
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Post by 23won on May 13, 2024 11:53:29 GMT -5
Due to injuries and some guys not playing every game the average per player when you sum them is greater than the actual average per team. The team averaged 72.7 points per game last year and we had low percentage FG shooting from Brantley and Gill, among others. White and Lilley should have decent FG % and Andres and Tunde should improve on good 3 point numbers. My point was (similar to Diehard) that we should be ok scoring with the loss of portal transfers.
The issue IMO will be defense (and scoring margin) and chemistry. I thought Rokas Jig and Brantley couldn't be consistent together last year. If Fran can get some offensive system and chemistry going with the new pieces, They may surprise on the upside. We should be taller and hopefully more impactful on D. We'll see.
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Post by mookie on May 13, 2024 16:13:20 GMT -5
Few thoughts:
* every player should be viewed as 1 or 2 year “rentals”
* we definitely won’t average 76 ppg; 70 is possible
* with likelihood of Brantley leaving, his biggest asset imo is his “heart”
* tough to say we’re better or even treading water with the talent we’re bringing vs last year
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Post by victoriouslasalle on May 13, 2024 17:00:58 GMT -5
Few thoughts: * every player should be viewed as 1 or 2 year “rentals” * we definitely won’t average 76 ppg; 70 is possible * with likelihood of Brantley leaving, his biggest asset imo is his “heart” * tough to say we’re better or even treading water with the talent we’re bringing vs last year Very- NPOA- IMHO |
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Post by 23won on May 15, 2024 6:14:18 GMT -5
Here is a refresh on the OP. I think Fran and staff did a good job rebuilding a roster, something that will be an annual event for all teams it seems. For all the conference naysayers, we are better off in the A10 IMO as we are still able to draw transfer talent sideways or up from other conferences. Hopefully with relationships we can get a Ramon or BJ but with NIL this will be far tougher.
I think we can replicate points scored from last year. See below. Individual ppg may vary but the overall numbers should be the same.
Haven’t seen our new guys except limited views of White but am encouraged by Del’s comments on Fran’s roster building. Again, chemistry and D will drive scoring margin data and Ws. I don’t have A10 scoring differential data but that is a key area for us in getting to .500 or above.
Hats off to Fran for embracing the challenge of a one year roster life cycle. If anyone can coach up 3 returning rotational players to work in a system with 5 new players and a few returning contributors in development (Zan and another?) he can
Acker 11 ppg
Mckeithan 8
Jones 8
Shepherd 10
Marrero 7
White 10
Tunde 8
Lilley 7?
Zan 3
Replicates 72 point average last year
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on May 15, 2024 6:18:59 GMT -5
If Deuce Jones averages the same amount as Corey McKeithan then the season is disappointing.
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Post by giveansk1 on May 15, 2024 6:31:53 GMT -5
Doesn't White project to be your late shot clock/winning time player? I have to think so but I'm unfamiliar with the new roster.
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Post by mookie on May 15, 2024 6:44:01 GMT -5
If Deuce Jones averages the same amount as Corey McKeithan then the season is disappointing. How are you defining “disappointing” because I’ve reached a point where that term doesn’t exist anymore. The last time I was disappointed by this program was the year following the Sweet 16. Since then, Ive been embarrassed or “team is where I expected them to be” and unfortunately that’s been a notch below .500. Additionally, I wouldn’t be disappointed if Jones averaged 8 ppg. If McKeithan scored 8 as well then I’d probably be happy with that but that’s because I don’t know much of either. Are you expecting Jones to average more than McKeithan? Or the other way around? |
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on May 15, 2024 6:45:39 GMT -5
I’m expecting Jones to be one of two cogs in the offense.
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Post by thelasallelunatic on May 15, 2024 8:09:45 GMT -5
If Deuce Jones averages the same amount as Corey McKeithan then the season is disappointing. How are you defining “disappointing” because I’ve reached a point where that term doesn’t exist anymore. The last time I was disappointed by this program was the year following the Sweet 16. Since then, Ive been embarrassed or “team is where I expected them to be” and unfortunately that’s been a notch below .500. Additionally, I wouldn’t be disappointed if Jones averaged 8 ppg. If McKeithan scored 8 as well then I’d probably be happy with that but that’s because I don’t know much of either. Are you expecting Jones to average more than McKeithan? Or the other way around? If Deuce Jones is to be as good as advertised, he should be better than a one year rental from Rider. I don't want to disparage the Rider kid, but if he outperforms your stud freshman, it's not good for La Salle. Quite frankly, we don't know if any of these guys besides the Temple kid can play, but you want Jones to come in here and have a good season. Disappointing is anything less than 16 wins. We have to show improvement over last season. Otherwise, what the hell are we doing here? The last freshman I was this excited about was Jack Clark. I was told he's a future NBA later, and instead, he's getting a PhD in college basketball, so this shit isn't an exact science. But if the Rider kid is better than Deuce, we got issues. |
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Post by diehardexplorer on May 15, 2024 8:23:41 GMT -5
Here is a refresh on the OP. I think Fran and staff did a good job rebuilding a roster, something that will be an annual event for all teams it seems. For all the conference naysayers, we are better off in the A10 IMO as we are still able to draw transfer talent sideways or up from other conferences. Hopefully with relationships we can get a Ramon or BJ but with NIL this will be far tougher. I think we can replicate points scored from last year. See below. Individual ppg may vary but the overall numbers should be the same. Haven’t seen our new guys except limited views of White but am encouraged by Del’s comments on Fran’s roster building. Again, chemistry and D will drive scoring margin data and Ws. I don’t have A10 scoring differential data but that is a key area for us in getting to .500 or above. Hats off to Fran for embracing the challenge of a one year roster life cycle. If anyone can coach up 3 returning rotational players to work in a system with 5 new players and a few returning contributors in development (Zan and another?) he can Acker 11 ppg Mckeithan 8 Jones 8 Shepherd 10 Marrero 7 White 10 Tunde 8 Lilley 7? Zan 3 Replicates 72 point average last year these numbers are actually pretty conservative which to me is encouraging. the only 2 people he has averaging more than they did last season are tunde (8 up from 7) and demetrius (7 up from 3). considering how much tunde's production went up as the season went on and that demetrius will most likely be playing many more minutes in a featured role in the a10 instead of the b10, it's not unreasonable for both to match or exceed those increases. i realize eric is taking a step up in comp but i don't think 11 ppg is out of the question for him. he scored double figures in all but three of liu's ooc games last season, including 18 against ucla and 13 against miami. jahlil averaged 10 playing hurt for much of the season and in a league comparable to the a10. i'd be surprised if corey averages 8 but i will also be surprised if deuce averages 8. i think he's a low double figure lock. i've seen people say he's only a freshman, that he'll need to adjust to better comp, and that is true, but la salle has had a number of freshmen come in and average double figures immediately (carr, black, greenberg, woods, butler, green, harris, hurd, neal, thomas, smith, clark and of course simmons and brooks). as far as deuce's adjustment goes, people need to realize he played his first two seasons at trenton catholic and his junior year at st thomas aquinas going up against the best teams in nj. and even though college achieve charter played in the small schools division for the state tournament, they played and beat a lot of the bigger nj schools during the regular season. he's also played at the highest level of aau for the last 4 years. this kid is ready to go. it is not out of the question that he's a double figure scorer for la salle. my biggest concerns for next season are from beyond the arc (andres' and tunde's roles will be critical), team defense and finding a competent big man who can give the team minutes along with demetrius. ryan did a fine job filling in there last year but he'll be much more effective is he's playing a combo forward role. |
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Post by explorer88 on May 15, 2024 8:33:25 GMT -5
Depends what your idea of good is. Is Deuce going to average 12 and turn the ball over while the McKeithan averages 8 points a game ad has a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio?
Deuce will be a freshman. I think we need to temper expectations. At least the 1st half of the year. When was the last freshman to come into La Salle and tear it up like some on here want to see?
McKeithan averaged the following against A10 programs and higher last year:
FG 40%
3P 36%
FT 70%
A/TO 1.43
Pts/G 10.4
Not bad. 2 of his best games came against Nebraska and Maryland.
He is not a savior but he will contribute next year. We need and I expect all of the transfers to get better under Dunphy. We need our returnees to get better. If we get great play from someone unexpected we can be better than last year but we do need a lot to happen.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on May 15, 2024 9:01:47 GMT -5
McKeithan averaged the following against A10 programs and higher last year: FG 40% 3P 36% FT 70% A/TO 1.43 Pts/G 10.4 But you have to include volume. Marquette - Team Lost by 30 - Five points, Five shots, two were threes, no free throws, three assists, one turnover Nebraska (his best game) - Team lost by 14 - 18 points, 14 shots, six were threes, five free throws, two assists, four turnovers Duquesne - Team lost by 19 - 13 points, 11 shots, six were threes, four free throws, one assist, one turnover Maryland - Team lost by 27 - 13 points, 11 shots, one was a three, one free throw, three assists, one turnover Penn State - Team lost by 27 - Three points, seven shots, four were threes, no free throws, three assists, one turnover I just don't see it being the steady option at guard that it is being made out to be. He is a veteran presence and maybe that is what is needed. |
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Post by 23won on May 15, 2024 10:13:49 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of the comments above, especially Diehard's .
I'd expect Fran to bring Deuce along where he may average 10 or more ppg late in year and less earlier in the year but average 8 overall. Corey could be the opposite. It's a story of experience versus D1 newbie. I am sure Fran will give the right rope to let Deuce grow as the season goes on. As I said in the OP, individual numbers for all could vary versus estimates.
IMO the ppg estimate numbers could be very conservative for White and Lilley. Based on a limited sample size, they seemed to play very well when they got high minutes in the past. The high minutes should happen with us for both; they won't have to look over their shoulders for the yank and should play more confidently and better for us versus their time at TU and PSU. Not clear on White, but if injuries were a factor impacting last year's stats, he could be a 16 ppg guy, and it is encouraging if he can be a go to late game scorer. If Deuce can evolve like Xzavier did for SJU's last year, that would be awesome and we could have two solid "go to" options. Don't want to throw too much pressure on Deuce, but his evolution like X's is plausible/doable.
Time will tell but I am cautiously optimistic and think we move up in the standings. How much this goes will depend on D and chemistry. Also agree that the 3 ball % for Andres and Tunde will be a big factor. Glad they got good minutes last year.
No disrespect, but I am not heartbroken over losing Jig, Khalil and Anwar. Glad they got more bank than we could afford, but I am looking forward to seeing some interesting pieces at the guard spot come together. Hope Fran can work some magic, but the changes seem well thought out and the best we can do with our limited wallet.
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Post by thelasallelunatic on May 15, 2024 10:32:29 GMT -5
Depends what your idea of good is. Is Deuce going to average 12 and turn the ball over while the McKeithan averages 8 points a game ad has a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio? Deuce will be a freshman. I think we need to temper expectations. At least the 1st half of the year. When was the last freshman to come into La Salle and tear it up like some on here want to see? McKeithan averaged the following against A10 programs and higher last year: FG 40% 3P 36% FT 70% A/TO 1.43 Pts/G 10.4 Not bad. 2 of his best games came against Nebraska and Maryland. He is not a savior but he will contribute next year. We need and I expect all of the transfers to get better under Dunphy. We need our returnees to get better. If we get great play from someone unexpected we can be better than last year but we do need a lot to happen. Are we getting a Gary Neal or Pookie Powell type player here in Jones? |
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Post by las71 on May 15, 2024 10:51:12 GMT -5
I'm with 23won on not being heartbroken over Jig, Khalil and Anwar moving on. I appreciate their contributions to the program and enjoyed watching them play but we were in the bottom half of the A 10 the last two years so I'm okay with getting some new faces. I understand that there's no guarantee that we'll finish higher but we got a little bigger with Meeech and White added two athletic guards and an experienced point. Shepherd is back to create some wow moments and Marrero, Fasasi and Zan got a lot of play last year and hopefully will improve. I'm also happy that Dunphy will be back and look forward to the new facility. Go 'splorers!
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on May 15, 2024 10:54:12 GMT -5
Feels like we're massively underrating the difference between a HS senior and a college senior. Deuce may be more skilled, especially is you're comparing them at the same age, but McKeithan has almost 100 D1 games played. That's going to matter all season and especially on the front end.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on May 15, 2024 11:10:44 GMT -5
Feels like we're massively underrating the difference between a HS senior and a college senior. That's me doing that. Watching clips and hearing about Jones...he was severely under recruited. I want him in the forefront. |
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on May 15, 2024 11:14:19 GMT -5
I understand, but its just "we got a guy from Rider versus this freshman I think will be great" and the experience gap is being entirely discounted. Our best HS PG of the last three decades(?) scored single digits and shot 32% from 3 in almost 34 minutes per.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on May 15, 2024 11:34:40 GMT -5
Was on a team with a four/five star and two seniors who fashioned themselves scorers. This La Salle team is devoid of that.
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Post by explorerman on May 15, 2024 11:36:17 GMT -5
Nice discussion. I would only add.. Isolating PPG as the metric to judge players or success next season seems silly or lazy or both.
Scoring efficiency and/or skill is paramount. Defense and rebounding are very important factors to success.
There are many comparisons between Corey and Deuce. I have heard from respected people that Corey is a good defensive point guard. Of all the things I have heard about Deuce, I have not heard much about his defense. That doesn't mean he is bad, but I haven't heard much.
I would take a PG who averaged an efficient 8 ppg, made good decisions with the ball, and played good defense over an inefficient PG who averaged 13, made questionable decisions, and was a defensive liability.
Last year, backcourt defense was a noted weakness. Our perimeter defense was swiss cheese, which was very easy to penetrate. Some of it was we were outsized at #1 - #3 spots and the other part, Brantley and Brickus had to have been gassed trying to generate scoring opportunities all the time in iso situations with less than 10 seconds of the shot clock. Still inconceivable to me that Brantley took over 150 3-point attempts last year.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on May 15, 2024 12:01:21 GMT -5
Was on a team with a four/five star and two seniors who fashioned themselves scorers. This La Salle team is devoid of that. Sure, but again, its an A-10 freshman. The 4th highest scoring freshman in the conference last year averaged 8.5 per. It has nothing to do with the kid himself, just historical baselines. |
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Post by victoriouslasalle on May 15, 2024 12:36:49 GMT -5
agree with the point made that Marrero and Tunde look like out best hope to establish the 3 point game. Need them to be more consistent and less streaky from 3.
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Post by mookie on May 15, 2024 13:24:09 GMT -5
I had a much longer response until my browser crapped and I’m on mobile so here’s my points in bullet form
* last fresh to be key cog and average high double digits was Gary (18 ish) and Darnell (11ish)…I believe
* Lack of shooters returning + time to adjust make it difficult (imo) for Jones to come in and put up big points
* Don’t know much about him or McKeithan but if we got 8ish from McKeithan then it’s a win in my book
* I don’t have any expectations for .500 season - hoping we don’t embarrass ourselves with multiple 20+ losses and less than 12 wins.
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Post by 23won on May 15, 2024 13:26:21 GMT -5
E- man. Both posts I made emphasized D and chemistry of a new unit not just lazy ppg. Problem is you can’t metric those two variables. We just have to wait and see. But as I said I am cautiously optimistic and think the staff did a good job with limited resources. If we could add another big I’d be more optimistic fwiw.
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Post by thelasallelunatic on May 15, 2024 13:36:02 GMT -5
I had a much longer response until my browser crapped and I’m on mobile so here’s my points in bullet form * last fresh to be key cog and average high double digits was Gary (18 ish) and Darnell (11ish)…I believe * Lack of shooters returning + time to adjust make it difficult (imo) for Jones to come in and put up big points * Don’t know much about him or McKeithan but if we got 8ish from McKeithan then it’s a win in my book * I don’t have any expectations for .500 season - hoping we don’t embarrass ourselves with multiple 20+ losses and less than 12 wins. Mookie, if we're winning 12 and losing 20, what the hell is Fran doing at the helm? I don't know if this team is gonna be good, bad, or mediocre, but 12 wins is a significant step back. That's like total reset numbers. That got Ashley Howard fired. Gary Neal was the last freshman that we knew as a future NBA player watching him play, being a 6'4 guard, etc. I think he averaged 19 as a frosh, with range anywhere in the half court. Couldn't, nor wouldn't D up, but when you got that game, take the good with the bad. That's why I asked if Jones is gonna profile like him, or like Pookie who is of similar size. |
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