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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Dec 26, 2019 10:30:15 GMT -5
Was going to put this in the other thread with predictions, but it seems to be turning into its own topic...
We keep talking about the A10 being stacked and a tough conference this year, but it just isn't playing out in the records so far. Looking at the Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, the conference is struggling. The record for Quad 1 wins is 4-18, and 6-13 for Quad 2 wins. Even Dayton is just 1-2 in Quad 1 wins, and VCU 0-3.
Looking at RPIs, there just won't be a lot of opportunities for teams to get Quad 1 in-conference wins. Beating Dayton at home is the only Quad 1 home win for any other teams in the conference right now, or teams can get road wins at Dayton, Mason, RI, Richmond, and SLU...but losses by them will drop them out of Quad 1 territory.
Predicting maybe 3 teams get bids from the A10. Maybe. Right now it's just VCU and Dayton in, with VCU as one of the last 4 in.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Dec 26, 2019 10:59:28 GMT -5
Getting Quad 1 wins is hard for a mid major conference.
Quadrant 1: Home games vs. RPI teams ranked in the top 30; neutral games vs. 1-50; away games vs. 1-75.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Dec 26, 2019 11:23:20 GMT -5
right...all the damage had to be done by now for the Quad 1 wins, and the league came up somewhat short.
Dayton with 1
SJU with 1
Richmond with 1
Bonaventure with 1
No more neutral games left, so have to see how the league beats each other up to see if we can get more than 2 teams in. I guess it just doesn't feel as stacked as we thought. The league is tough this year intra-league, but in terms of being competitive outside the A10, the numbers don't add up.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Dec 26, 2019 12:36:34 GMT -5
I think the league as a whole is stronger than in 2012, but the top 3 was probably stronger back then.
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Post by 23won on Dec 26, 2019 12:37:10 GMT -5
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Dec 26, 2019 12:38:55 GMT -5
I’m a big RPI proponent and still feel it was the best way to value teams. The problem is that it is an equation as opposed to a weird bucketing system and math makes people angry.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Dec 26, 2019 13:32:33 GMT -5
Yup. The gap between 29 and 30 could be 5x bigger than it is between 30 and 31 and a ranked system fails, so a bucket system is destined to be a complete cluster.
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Post by a10champion15 on Dec 26, 2019 14:52:27 GMT -5
Still think it's too early to be looking at where teams fall in the quadrant system. A lot can change where these teams stand right now once conference play begins.
Based on where the conference stands I'm still thinking 3 or 4 teams get in the NCAA tourney while 2-3 get into the NIT.
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Post by sweat83 on Dec 26, 2019 15:07:48 GMT -5
Just win the A10 tournament. For once. Go on a run at the end of the year, and allow us to watch a meaningful conference tournament game on a weekend.
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Post by coqui900 on Dec 26, 2019 15:18:42 GMT -5
I think some of the A-10 is going to come down this year. Dayton's obviously the class of the league and no one anywhere would be shocked to see them in the Final Four. Obi's fantastic. Lunardi has them as a four seed right now. But if Dayton holds serve in the A-10 and San Diego State or another team slip, they could very well end up as a three. I know he's not the end-all be-all, but that's where they're at.
But I don't see any way Duquesne keeps it up considering their arena situation. For those who don't know -- the Palumbo Center is getting overhauled this year, so they're playing games at three different arenas (the arena where the Penguins play at, Robert Morris's gym and LeMoyne's place). They also don't have any sort of practice space this season and don't even have showers. I am actively rooting for them to beat everyone in the A-10 this year aside from us. But that really has to be draining after a while, especially when everything heats up.
George Mason is 11-1 but wow is that schedule weak. They played one good team in Maryland (who are a great team) and got smoked. No shame in losing to the Terps this year but wow is that a bad schedule. They could come crashing down hard.
I could see St. Louis sticking up at the top of the ladder behind Dayton and VCU. And I think URI could end up very good by the end of the year.
As far as us: I have absolutely zero idea what to think headed into conference. Our three losses were all to quality teams... but none were really all that close, save for the final few minutes against Temple when we made it very respectable. But Penn beat us handily and Villanova shut the door really hard. Have we played anyone who would be a middle of the pack A-10 team this year? Wright State has 10 wins.
I'm still thinking Iona will win the MAAC. It's hard to tell considering Iona has somehow only played SIX friggin' games this year! WTF?
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Post by diehardexplorer on Dec 26, 2019 15:44:12 GMT -5
But I don't see any way Duquesne keeps it up considering their arena situation. For those who don't know -- the Palumbo Center is getting overhauled this year, so they're playing games at three different arenas (the arena where the Penguins play at, Robert Morris's gym and LeMoyne's place). They also don't have any sort of practice space this season and don't even have showers. I am actively rooting for them to beat everyone in the A-10 this year aside from us. But that really has to be draining after a while, especially when everything heats up. you ain't kidding. asking a team from pittsburgh to play some of their home games at an arena in syracuse would drain anyone.  |
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Dec 26, 2019 17:33:21 GMT -5
Good internet here
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Post by coachd on Dec 27, 2019 9:17:45 GMT -5
May the Fish be with you!
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Post by big5explorer on Dec 28, 2019 9:15:04 GMT -5
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Dec 28, 2019 9:43:05 GMT -5
Depending on where you slot the AAC, 8th is either 1st or 2nd outside the majors. I’m pretty happy with that.
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Post by 23won on Dec 28, 2019 10:14:14 GMT -5
8th is excellent. The AAC has talented top teams and better teams at the bottom of the league. A10 will not surpass.
Dayton - lock
VCU - pretty much a sure thing
UR - look well positioned to dance
One or two of the following also could make it
SLU
URI
La Salle
Mason
Bonnies
Davidson
I
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Dec 29, 2019 21:00:17 GMT -5
Duquesne had a bad loss today to Marshall who had a 240 NET ranking coming into the game. Richmond had a chance to bolster their resume today but unfortunately lost on the road to Alabama who had a 77 NET. Would have been nice for the conference to get a win over an SEC team, and the loss to Marshall hurts.
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nealum
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Post by nealum on Dec 30, 2019 13:21:53 GMT -5
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Post by Happy Fortune on Dec 30, 2019 15:28:17 GMT -5
This game isn't on ESPN+ which is why we aren't included in this article. La Salle v Dayton is on CBS Sports Network
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Dec 30, 2019 19:03:26 GMT -5
The article mentions "he who shall not be named" from the Bonnies.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Dec 30, 2019 22:54:14 GMT -5
Not a great night in A10 land for resume building. Davidson with a bad loss to lower ranked Vanderbilt, Mason with a horrible 34-point loss to lower ranked TCU, Bonnies losing to Buffalo, UMass losing to Akron. The A10 is limping into conference play.
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