Bracketologists and La Salle

[theneumann64]

Still way to early to tell. We could be anywhere form the 1-4 seed. And most of 5-12 is still up in the air. IF we lose, and end up 3 or 4 though, count on it being Temple, Butler, or Xavier.

[neubauer93]

After last night, Lunardi moved us up to the last four in (non-play in game.) Gee, thanks Joe.

[luhoopsfan]

I think right now our prospects at best are as follows

12- lose at SLU
11- win at SLU
11- win at SLU and 1 A10
10- A10 champ game
9- a10 tourney winner

There are 93 brackets this AM we appear in 92

[coqui900]

I can see Villanova over us at this point, despite the head-to-head win. They had chances for some major scalps and got them. They also had some rough losses along the way.

We haven't had a chance for a big scalp in a few months, unless you count Temple. We also haven't had any bad losses.

So it's a matter of what you weight more -- big wins with losses to teams like Seton Hall or no big wins since Dream Week but no bad losses.

Colorado is a joke. I guess Oregon's a good team but they're not as good as Butler, St. Louis or VCU.

[mookie]

We'll get out chance against STL...

[theneumann64]

Mar 8, 2013 8:29:57 GMT -5 luhoopsfan said:

I think right now our prospects at best are as follows

12- lose at SLU
11- win at SLU
11- win at SLU and 1 A10
10- A10 champ game
9- a10 tourney winner

There are 93 brackets this AM we appear in 92

I think you may be a bit low on the top end. If we were to win the A-10 tourney, we'd be 24-8 or 25-7, with undoubtedly a few more huge victories. We'd be a 7 seed. Again, that's very unlikely to happen, but that would be a huge boost.

[luhoopsfan]

I'm not sure we could get higher than an 8 seed, and really does it matter if you're an 8 or 9 seed anyway?

One scenario not listed is losing @ SLU and in A10, depending on bubble team performances we could slide to the Play-in game.

Also, losing @ SLU and winning our first A10 game would probably keep us out of the play in but still as a 12.

[MisterD]

If we finish inside the bye and win the A-10 and only get the 8-9 game, I'd be pretty furious. That sort of resume (and finish, which is dumb but whatever) should be a geographically favorable 7 at the very worst.

[mookie]

Mar 8, 2013 10:51:46 GMT -5 MisterD said:

If we finish inside the bye and win the A-10 and only get the 8-9 game, I'd be pretty furious. That sort of resume (and finish, which is dumb but whatever) should be a geographically favorable 7 at the very worst.

Why would you think we'd be a 7 (in the east) at worse?? I really don't get the seedings except the top 4 and the 5/12 seeds...everything else? no clue

[lwc4591]

Just think back to L. Simmons days when we were what 30-1 with are only loss being to a top 5 team and what did we get a 4 seed. I may be wrong but I think this is true and I am to lazy to look it up. Count on one thing and that is being shafted because this is not the NIT this is Big TV.

[theneumann64]

I agree. If it's close, even if we belong in, we'll probably get the shaft. That's why you gotta win another one so that they can't leave us out. I really can't see a way they leave a 22 win team out, especially because that means we either beat SLU on the road, or got to the A-10 semis.

[lwc4591]

Just listen to how people talk and you realize the increidble bias that exist. Goes something like La Salle has to beat #16 St Louis or # 30? Butler or they are out with a 21-9 record but Nova could lose to #150? S. Hall and # 18 Pitt with a 18-13 record and that is OK.

[mookie]

Goes back to reputation and conference affiliation...

A10 was gaining more respect with the additions of Butler and VCU, but now that Butler is leaving just as fast as they joined, it hurts. Not to mention that LaSalle just doesn't have much of a "brand" in the eyes of the Committee and national audience. It sucks, but LaSalle really needs knock down the door and grab respect rather than ask or hope for it.

Sorry - I know I come off hard on LaSalle and seem to put them down and by no means do I want LaSalle to fail. I'm an alum and loving how LaSalle is a 20 win team this year and how we're IN consideration for the NCAAs. I just know that LaSalle doesn't have much of a reputation (at least not positive) across the nation. People in the area know about us, but you would expect that from a local perspective. It's a tough road to the NCAAs and we just got to keep pushing and making noise until we can't be ignored...and that requires seizing every opportunity.

[coqui900]

The other thing that sucks is the A-10 IS considered as the best non-BCS conference.

We lose the whole Cinderella appeal that a Belmont or Middle Tennessee State gets. We're not even a true underdog in that sense, although we have a lot more in common than those teams than we do with the Big East.

[broderickpresident]

Mar 8, 2013 14:09:55 GMT -5 lwc4591 said:

Just think back to L. Simmons days when we were what 30-1 with are only loss being to a top 5 team and what did we get a 4 seed. I may be wrong but I think this is true and I am to lazy to look it up. Count on one thing and that is being shafted because this is not the NIT this is Big TV.

La Salle was 29-1 heading to the dance, on a 21-game win streak. Our 1 loss was to LMU, who was ranked 25th at the time they beat us but was not ranked entering the tournament if I recall correctly (I believe they ended up being an 11 seed, but obviously that took into account the death of one of the best players in the country).

I'd say we deserved a higher seed (we were ranked about 11th or 12th in the country), but our RPI entering selection Sunday was only 25th: rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20Library/1990%20Selection%20RPI.pdf

We were only 159th in SOS, thanks to playing in a 1-bid MAAC. Our non-conference schedule was undersold a bit. A 21-point road win at DePaul was big-time back then. Notre Dame had several NBA players (including a lottery pick), but had a dysfunctional season with Ellis in and out of favor if I recall correctly, but they were at full strength when we played them. Temple had won about 30 in a row at McGonigle when we won there and they were at full strength before kicking Duane Causwell (a 7-foot 1st round draft pick off the team). That Temple team had at least 4 NBA players on it and all of them big (6'5" Macon, 7-0 Causwell, 7-0 Hodge and 6-9 Strickland). We beat a Florida team with another 7-foot 1st round pick who would later be kicked off the team (Schintzius). Basically, we beat a lot of teams that were good when we played them and then had great players kicked off their team or miss games and hurt their profiles (and therefore ours).

[theneumann64]

Everyone under 30 hates you guys for being able to remember a time we got a 4 seed, and you were pissed about it.

[broderickpresident]

Mar 8, 2013 14:48:34 GMT -5 broderickpresident said:

Mar 8, 2013 14:09:55 GMT -5 lwc4591 said:

Just think back to L. Simmons days when we were what 30-1 with are only loss being to a top 5 team and what did we get a 4 seed. I may be wrong but I think this is true and I am to lazy to look it up. Count on one thing and that is being shafted because this is not the NIT this is Big TV.

La Salle was 29-1 heading to the dance, on a 21-game win streak. Our 1 loss was to LMU, who was ranked 25th at the time they beat us but was not ranked entering the tournament if I recall correctly (I believe they ended up being an 11 seed, but obviously that took into account the death of one of the best players in the country).

I'd say we deserved a higher seed (we were ranked about 11th or 12th in the country), but our RPI entering selection Sunday was only 25th: rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats%20Library/1990%20Selection%20RPI.pdf

We were only 159th in SOS, thanks to playing in a 1-bid MAAC. Our non-conference schedule was undersold a bit. A 21-point road win at DePaul was big-time back then. Notre Dame had several NBA players (including a lottery pick), but had a dysfunctional season with Ellis in and out of favor if I recall correctly, but they were at full strength when we played them. Temple had won about 30 in a row at McGonigle when we won there and they were at full strength before kicking Duane Causwell (a 7-foot 1st round draft pick off the team). That Temple team had at least 4 NBA players on it and all of them big (6'5" Macon, 7-0 Causwell, 7-0 Hodge and 6-9 Strickland). We beat a Florida team with another 7-foot 1st round pick who would later be kicked off the team (Schintzius). Basically, we beat a lot of teams that were good when we played them and then had great players kicked off their team or miss games and hurt their profiles (and therefore ours).

Wow, it makes me angry looking back at how unfair RPI is...UConn had a 16 RPI, but still got a 1 seed (so we were penalized by RPI, but it didn't apply to a UConn team we would have crushed). And the real kicker is that Ohio State had a 19 RPI (with a 15-11 record). That's a team we beat by 12 points on a neutral court in New Orleans...

[broderickpresident]

Mar 8, 2013 14:52:38 GMT -5 theneumann64 said:

Everyone under 30 hates you guys for being able to remember a time we got a 4 seed, and you were pissed about it.

Just a very frustrating end to an incredible season. That team had what it took for a Final Four. Drew a terrible matchup in Clemson (regular-season ACC champs in a year when the ACC sent 2 teams to the Final Four). And yet, our guards were so much better that we were turning them over at will and jumped out to 20-point lead, only to get absolutely mauled on the glass and suddenly have Overton and Woods unable to hit anything. Clemson had roughly a 40-10 edge in free throw attempts. We matched up much better with UConn and Duke, which would have been our path to the Final Four. Don't think we matched up as well with UNLV

[lwc4591]

Big TV teams don't get penalized for lower RPI but smaller conferences get crushed and solid conferences like A10 just get hurt. Can you imagine if many teams like Belmont, Butler, VCU and numerous others were given a more fair seeding how good college basketball would be. What we get is the same old teams who get special bias seeding which carries them through to Sweet 16 or higher year after year. Thank goodness for VCU and Butler the last few seasons it made the NCAA's tolerable.

[luhoopsfan]

I wills ay that now that that the NCAA selection committee has made a lot more info public about the process it probably helps cases like ours. basically they've said "This is our formula for selecting teams" so if there's some real deviation from that formula they will get called on it. I think it's part of the reason there was so much uproar a couple years ago when VA Tech was left out. If I remember correctly VT beat Duke at home that year but had a lot of questionable losses and played a really soft schedule and they got passed over for some mid-majors that went on the road and won games.

[20thandolney]

I also think you guys are overlooking the fact that they are looking for good competitive games. They don't want people turning off their tv's because the game is over by half. As for La Salle, simply put, they don't get blown out and would be competitive even in a 12-5 game. That, plus they fact they play an exciting 4 guard style makes La Salle a sexy pick for TV.

Also, it is a Philadelphia school. We aren't in the middle of no where USA. Philadelphia will watch La Salle if they are in the tourney. 

[lwc4591]

Hoopsfan I hope you are correct because everyone feels better when treated fairly or at the very least somewhat fairly. We will know soon enough and if last seasons NIT was any indication then maybe we are headed in the right direction. Ten more days and we will know the truth.

[luhoopsfan]

This is pretty crazy and some serious analysis.

TEAM RANKINGS

Basically - we've got a 73% chance of making the tournament. Looking more closely through some of the links on this site, they have us as the 3rd favorite to win the A10 tourney after VCU and SLU at 1-2 and project us as the 3 seed at 11-5 (I think they have Temple losing to VCU) I think they give us a 20% chance of winning the tourney and like a 65% chance of making it to the Semi's.

There's a 1.0% chance of us making the Final Four - so get your plane tickets and hotel reservations confirmed...ASAP

[SICguy84]

Mar 8, 2013 16:21:32 GMT -5 luhoopsfan said:

This is pretty crazy and some serious analysis.

TEAM RANKINGS

Basically - we've got a 73% chance of making the tournament. Looking more closely through some of the links on this site, they have us as the 3rd favorite to win the A10 tourney after VCU and SLU at 1-2 and project us as the 3 seed at 11-5 (I think they have Temple losing to VCU) I think they give us a 20% chance of winning the tourney and like a 65% chance of making it to the Semi's.

There's a 1.0% chance of us making the Final Four - so get your plane tickets and hotel reservations confirmed...ASAP

Great site. Thanks.

According teamrankings.com, Temple = 52% chance of making tournament. Yet local media types say that La Salle has the worst chance.

[20thandolney]

Mar 8, 2013 16:21:32 GMT -5 luhoopsfan said:

This is pretty crazy and some serious analysis.

TEAM RANKINGS

Basically - we've got a 73% chance of making the tournament. Looking more closely through some of the links on this site, they have us as the 3rd favorite to win the A10 tourney after VCU and SLU at 1-2 and project us as the 3 seed at 11-5 (I think they have Temple losing to VCU) I think they give us a 20% chance of winning the tourney and like a 65% chance of making it to the Semi's.

There's a 1.0% chance of us making the Final Four - so get your plane tickets and hotel reservations confirmed...ASAP

.1% chance at being National Champs!

T-shirt is ordered!

[20thandolney]

It is interesting that they have us more likely as a 10 seed (12.7) than 12 seed (5.6).

11 seed is most likely at 15.7%

[Gnocchi]

Here's the Team Rankings breakdown of Explos' probability of an NCAA bid based on total wins, from simulations of games still to be played, including the A-10 tournament.

www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/la-salle-explorers/bracketology

Total Wins NCAA Bid%
25 100.0%
24 98.6%
23 79.1%
22 68.5%
21 47.7%
OVERALL 73.0%

Using simulations based on season records to date they give us a 29% chance of beating St. Louis, so if we beat SLU to get to 22 wins the probability of a bid would be higher than the 68.5% indicated since it's more likely for us to get to 22 wins by beating a weaker opponent in the A-10 quarters than by beating SLU and losing in the quarters. If we lose the next 2 and are stuck on 21 our probility is 47.7%, making for a nail-biting selection Sunday.

Here are their projections for the Explos in the A-10 tournament:

www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/la-salle-explorers/projections

Conference Tournament Win Odds By Seed
Seed Probability Win Odds
1 10.5% 16.2%
2 19.1% 14.5%
3 52.2% 12.2%
4 18.2% 12.7%

OVERALL 13.2%

Oddly, they have our probability of winning the tournament slightly higher as the 4-seed (12.7%) than the 3-seed (12.2%). Not buying that, since we're more likely to face Temple or Butler in the quarters as the 4-seed vs. there being a good chance of getting UMass as the 3-seed.

[big5explorer]

Mar 8, 2013 16:32:47 GMT -5 20thandolney said:

Mar 8, 2013 16:21:32 GMT -5 luhoopsfan said:

This is pretty crazy and some serious analysis.

TEAM RANKINGS

Basically - we've got a 73% chance of making the tournament. Looking more closely through some of the links on this site, they have us as the 3rd favorite to win the A10 tourney after VCU and SLU at 1-2 and project us as the 3 seed at 11-5 (I think they have Temple losing to VCU) I think they give us a 20% chance of winning the tourney and like a 65% chance of making it to the Semi's.

There's a 1.0% chance of us making the Final Four - so get your plane tickets and hotel reservations confirmed...ASAP

.1% chance at being National Champs!

T-shirt is ordered!

So you're saying there's a chance!!!!!

[luhoopsfan]

As of tonight- there are 85 brackets updated since 3/5 ... We appear in all 85