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Post by 23won on Mar 1, 2013 14:35:23 GMT -5
With news stories reporting the glory and riches of the new BE and the near certain demise of the A10 as a power conference, I'd like to take a stab at debunking these theories with some simple math.
I'll start with a fair assumption that X and Butler will join the BE to make the tv deal work as an improved network of eastern (NY, NE, NJ, Phila, DC) and midwestern (Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Cincy) markets.
Next, I will assume the quoted Fox deal for $40 million a year is legit.
With that, an even split of the tv pie among 9 "members" results in $4.4 mil each.
Would you, as a voting "member", give up $1.1 milllion per year to add 3 members consisting of any combination of
Creighton (Maybe -- I could see that choice as much as St Lou)
St Louis ( Maybe -- I could see that choice as much as Creighton)
VCU (Nah - Richmond is not a big tv market and JTIII doesn't want to get out-Thompsoned by Smart if he is smart)
Richmond ( No way -- Richmond is not a big tv market and Chris Mooney is no Shaka Smart)
Dayton (Dayton, seriously?)
I predict theBE/C7 will add one team, and members give up $400k each. I don't see the value of the return in giving up the extra 700K to add a couple of OK teams. So at the end of the day, I see it as a 50% chance that they take Creighton and the A-10 remains a solid 12-team league, or a 50% chance that they take St Louis and we drop to 11, with a need to add one, which is certainly doable based on the thoughts from the other thread on BE Dominos. Also, I see the new league paying handsomely for the BE name, so if that happens, there will be less gold to spread around.
So in the end, I say "Don't fret - St Benjamin will save the A-10's a$$." What do you think?
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Post by 20thandolney on Mar 1, 2013 14:51:42 GMT -5
I hope your right. Even saving just dayton would be nice. Dayton is a lot more important to the A-10 than to the new big east.
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Post by golasalle on Mar 1, 2013 15:04:41 GMT -5
With news stories reporting the glory and riches of the new BE and the near certain demise of the A10 as a power conference, I'd like to take a stab at debunking these theories with some simple math. I'll start with a fair assumption that X and Butler will join the BE to make the tv deal work as an improved network of eastern (NY, NE, NJ, Phila, DC) and midwestern (Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Cincy) markets. Next, I will assume the quoted Fox deal for $40 million a year is legit. With that, an even split of the tv pie among 9 "members" results in $4.4 mil each. Would you, as a voting "member", give up $1.1 milllion per year to add 3 members consisting of any combination of Creighton (Maybe -- I could see that choice as much as St Lou) St Louis ( Maybe -- I could see that choice as much as Creighton) VCU (Nah - Richmond is not a big tv market and JTIII doesn't want to get out-Thompsoned by Smart if he is smart) Richmond ( No way -- Richmond is not a big tv market and Chris Mooney is no Shaka Smart) Dayton (Dayton, seriously?) I predict theBE/C7 will add one team, and members give up $400k each. I don't see the value of the return in giving up the extra 700K to add a couple of OK teams. So at the end of the day, I see it as a 50% chance that they take Creighton and the A-10 remains a solid 12-team league, or a 50% chance that they take St Louis and we drop to 11, with a need to add one, which is certainly doable based on the thoughts from the other thread on BE Dominos. Also, I see the new league paying handsomely for the BE name, so if that happens, there will be less gold to spread around. So in the end, I say "Don't fret - St Benjamin will save the A-10's a$$." What do you think? The one flaw to your logic is if the Fox deal is contingent on the new league adding "X" teams from among "Y" list. (keeping your math theme going with a quasi-formula!) |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Mar 1, 2013 16:10:39 GMT -5
Also missing is the impact of adding potential NCAA units to the pie - however, based on that league makeup I would expect that most of them will beat each other up and knock down their RPIs and if there are 9 teams in the league, 4 will get Bids.
Plus, I bet DePaul, Seton Hall, providence and St Johns will continue to be avg teams.
I agree, of they were going to have 12 teams, why not get them right away?
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Post by Gnocchi on Mar 1, 2013 17:52:51 GMT -5
They're not going to 12 right away because of 23's math -- the extra $2.2 million or $3.3 million in year 1 (depending on whether there are 9 or 10 teams) is a concession from Fox to the C7 to buy the Big East name and still pocket over $3 million per team. 23's math is right but the causality is sketchy on who decides the total number of teams. Fox is driving that bus and wants 12 for the TV footprint. The C7 gets to vote on which teams but not the total number.
Contrary to media reports look for Dayton instead of Richmond to wind up on the outside looking in. The Richmond MSA is somewhat larger than Dayton's and, with Dayton added to X. Butler, SLU, Creighton, DePaul and Marquette, there would be 7 midwestern teams and only 5 eastern. Richmond balances the geography better, has bucks and a better profile with Georgetown, has had more NCAA success and lessens the "catholic" factor.
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Post by theneumann64 on Mar 1, 2013 18:03:47 GMT -5
I hope that's not true, because then Dayton definitely leaves the A-10 and goes somewhere else.
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Post by Gnocchi on Mar 1, 2013 18:38:40 GMT -5
Who knows how it shakes out but Richmond, near Georgetown and in ACC country, would seem to make more sense than adding another midwestern team like Dayton who brings little but a rabid fan base. And where would Dayton go that's clearly better than a watered down A-10? The Horizon, with Detroit? Hardly an upgrade. Maybe the MVC to replace Creighton? Better geographically but again not a clear upgrade. The Flyers aren't in much better shape, if at all, than La Salle and Overbrook in finding a better landing place than the A-10.
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Post by 23won on Mar 1, 2013 20:18:03 GMT -5
Nice piece of analysis Gnoch. With the money Fox is shelling out, the BE clearly will be Fox's bitch.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Mar 1, 2013 21:09:55 GMT -5
And like the watered down leagues, now you've got ESPN, NBC, CBS and Fox all with their sports networks and they aren't going to be able to sell the ads for what they used to sell them for which means leagues won't get the pay days they used to get either.
Plus, Fox has to get into homes that are controlled by Comcast/NBC in most of the homes. If Comcast is smart they can have major leverage over Fox. I would rather be in a league aligned with NBC right now than almost any other network
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Post by Gnocchi on Mar 2, 2013 0:18:31 GMT -5
More grist on the Richmond front. Getta loada the C7 board's moniker... holylandofhoops.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=452&sid=c0d08ea512bf07b2efffb57b2ddfea56Richmond IN, Dayton OUT by Scoop » Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:13 pm I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, so I figured I would register and post. I have a trusted 'source' inside the Villanova athletic department that said the ESPN reports aren't entirely accurate, and were likely leaked by someone hoping to manipulate the process. Xavier and Butler are definitely IN next year b/c they were the only 2 schools where there was a consensus. Despite what is being reported, Creighton and RICHMOND are likely next in line, in part b/c of a recent compromise between the eastern and western C7 schools. The last spot is undecided, but Fox has been pushing for SLU, which would leave Dayton out of the mix. |
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