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Post by 23won on Feb 24, 2013 20:45:14 GMT -5
If the top 6 win out as you'd expect (e.g., winning all except for tough road wins), I think two key games will determine whether we get a bye:
1)Butler @ UMAss 2)VCU @ Temple
For example
St Lou (Ws against SJU, @gw, LaS; L @ X) 13-3
VCU (Ws v Butler, UR; L @ TU) 12-4
Us (W v FU, GW; L @ St Lou) 11-5
TU (W v URI, VCU @ FU) 11-5
Butler (W v X; L @ VCU, @ UMass) 10-6
X (W v U Mass; Ls v St Lou, @ Butler) 9-7
If Butler beats UMass, we have a 3 way tie (LaS, BU, TU) for the last two byes. Each has a 1-1 head to head record. How do you decide that?
If VCU beats TU, we have no issue, but that is not a given.
Aside from the obvious need to take care of business at home and maybe sneak an upset at St Lou, the two games above will probably decide the fate of the bye field. INTERESTINGLY, if we BEAT ST LOU, we probably WIND UP AS THE # 1 SEED.
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Post by vasalos on Feb 24, 2013 20:49:10 GMT -5
Too many variables still. Upsets will happen between now and March 9. I just hope one of those upsets don't happen to us.
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 24, 2013 20:54:26 GMT -5
After next weekend, when everyone has just 2 games left, things should be clearer. I generally agree with the idea that 11-5 in the A-10 should get us one of those Byes.
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Post by explorerman on Feb 24, 2013 21:34:33 GMT -5
If the top 6 win out as you'd expect (e.g., winning all except for tough road wins), I think two key games will determine whether we get a bye: 1)Butler @ UMAss 2)VCU @ Temple For example St Lou (Ws against SJU, @gw, LaS; L @ X) 13-3 VCU (Ws v Butler, UR; L @ TU) 12-4 Us (W v FU, GW; L @ St Lou) 11-5 TU (W v URI, VCU @ FU) 11-5 Butler (W v X; L @ VCU, @ UMass) 10-6 X (W v U Mass; Ls v St Lou, @ Butler) 9-7 If Butler beats UMass, we have a 3 way tie (LaS, BU, TU) for the last two byes. Each has a 1-1 head to head record. How do you decide that? If VCU beats TU, we have no issue, but that is not a given. Aside from the obvious need to take care of business at home and maybe sneak an upset at St Lou, the two games above will probably decide the fate of the bye field. INTERESTINGLY, if we BEAT ST LOU, we probably WIND UP AS THE # 1 SEED. Would not be shocked if VCU wins at Temple handily... They press, early and often.. I question whether Temple can take care of the ball that well when the ball isn't in Wyatt's hands... In total, La Salle should be fine by winning the games they are supposed to.. A lot of tough games for the other teams that we are competing with... They are jealous right now of our schedule.. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2013 0:28:12 GMT -5
a 3 way tie (LaS, BU, TU) for the last two byes. Â Each has a 1-1 head to head record. Â How do you decide that? In your scenario... Temple has the 3 and La Salle has the 4 and Butler the 5. As long as SLU is the 1 seed. Gets complicated tho if VCU wins out over SLU for the 1 because that would give La Salle the 3 and Butler the 4, and Temple would be a 5. |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 25, 2013 7:37:57 GMT -5
We don't want TU winning against VCU - Temple could steal our NCAA bid
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2013 8:22:09 GMT -5
We want temple at the 5 losing to 12 seed then we can say have fun in the NIT!!
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Post by coqui900 on Feb 25, 2013 9:00:43 GMT -5
I think Temple is peaking at the absolute right time. I mean, it's this year's Temple team so who knows but they're playing lights out the past two games against good teams.
I want us to finish as high as possible. I think our best bet is to, obviously, win. But if St. Louis beats VCU, wouldn't we be the 2 seed after Saturday with two games to go? St. Louis is almsot uncatchable at this point even if they do come back down to earth (and I'm not sure that's a thing -- Brad Stevens called them a Fianl Eight team and, yeah, they are right now).
What a great league this year. Butler, VCU and St. Louis have all looked like world beaters and we're right with them.
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 25, 2013 9:05:09 GMT -5
I want no part of Temple in Brooklyn. They are the team I would least like to see on Friday, with us in what would probably be a must-win game.
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Post by 23won on Feb 25, 2013 11:00:00 GMT -5
a 3 way tie (LaS, BU, TU) for the last two byes. Â Each has a 1-1 head to head record. Â How do you decide that? In your scenario... Temple has the 3 and La Salle has the 4 and Butler the 5. As long as SLU is the 1 seed. Gets complicated tho if VCU wins out over SLU for the 1 because that would give La Salle the 3 and Butler the 4, and Temple would be a 5. Not doubting you Hykos, but how do you get to that conclusion? What is the next tiebreaker basis? |
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Post by lwc4591 on Feb 25, 2013 11:11:11 GMT -5
Oh God here we go again for like the 15th straight year about how Temple is peaking and to watch out for them. Correct me if I am wrong but don't the Owls lose every time they get to the NCAA's under Dunphy except one time. I think Dunphy's record is 1-9 with the Owls which is almost perfect but in the wrong direction. Well here I go I am going to go out on a limb and say Temple wins their second tourny game under Dunphy which will be his final win because next season they will be hard pressed to have a winning record and certainly won't have to worry about tourny.
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Post by goexplorers on Feb 25, 2013 11:15:18 GMT -5
If 3 teams finish tied with each other, and have identical 1-1 records vs each other, the next tie-breaker is "who has the best record vs teams starting at the top of the conference standings". So if Butler, X, and La Salle finish tied, and have 1-1 records vs each other, then they look at the individual team's record vs SLU (assuming they're first), and go down the list from there until the tie is broken.
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Post by lwc4591 on Feb 25, 2013 11:16:01 GMT -5
Temple just beat a La salle team which is playing poorly and a Charlotte team that looks like it may lose 5 or 6 games in a row.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2013 11:16:41 GMT -5
Thank you for asking. The rules for tiebreakers are completed in descending order because your record depends on the placement of your highest wins among 'common' opponents. (well, everyone is a common opponent in this sport, unlike the other A10 sports like WBB and Soccer). SLU has an edge over VCU for the 1 seed right now, because SLU holds a "game in hand" and they own a tiebreaker head to head. If they both finish 13-3, SLU will be the #1. All other tiebreakers would depend on record vs. SLU, as long as that holds. If we tie with Temple and Butler, Temple would be the likely only team with a SLU win. Even if we beat SLU, Temple beat us and that trumps our both having beaten SLU. Butler fell to STL twice, and this counts against them, dropping them all the way to fifth place.
The VCU in first scenario is complicated and unlikely (because they haven't played Butler and Temple yet), but it would help us in a tiebreaker with Butler and Temple because I assume VCU has to win at least one of those two games to get into first place. You'll start to see more clearly only when there are one or two games left, or if a team clinches #1, because right now there are still so many ifs.
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Post by coqui900 on Feb 25, 2013 12:08:40 GMT -5
Wait, wouldn't we have the same record Saturday w/ Butler and VCU if Butler beats VCU? And that makes us the two?
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 25, 2013 12:46:56 GMT -5
The next 5 days are going to go by very slowly with no games, only 3 A-10 games mid-week, and lots of variables right now in terms of A-10 seeding, and our NCAA standing.
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Post by 23won on Feb 25, 2013 13:03:52 GMT -5
Thanks for the explanation. This makes following the other teams a lot more interesting, like a pennant race or wild card run.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2013 13:35:56 GMT -5
Temple just beat a La salle team which is playing poorly and a Charlotte team that looks like it may lose 5 or 6 games in a row. Don't count on this. Charlotte has a lighter remaining schedule than most teams and they have beaten Butler (@hinkle) fairly recently. They are a strong 9-7 candidate (with tiebreakers over UMass and Xavier) and will almost certainly be one of the top 8 seeds. |
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Post by ltrain38 on Feb 25, 2013 14:32:15 GMT -5
Charlotte could very well lose at St. Bonaventure, which might be enough to put Bonas into the top 100 RPI (something that could only help us).
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 25, 2013 14:50:05 GMT -5
another Top 100 road win would be VERY helpful.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 25, 2013 15:13:34 GMT -5
another Top 100 road win would be VERY helpful. Where are we going to get that? |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 25, 2013 15:16:23 GMT -5
VCU holds a ton of cards for us when i went through the remaining schedules for the league's top teams. Have a look:
Butler
@vcu
@mass
XU
VCU:
BUT
RICH
@tu
TU:
URI
@for
VCU
In some ways, VCU winning out would help us a lot. Butler would have at least 5 losses and Temple would have at least 6. In both of those cases, assuming things go as expected for the Explorers, we would be tied with Butler at 11-5 and ahead of Temple at 10-6. We would get the 3 seed and avoid Temple until the Finals. I'm not scared of Temple by any means and still think that the team that beat SJU would've also beaten TU but alas, this is where we are at the moment.
Also looking at the schedules more closely here's some interesting things of note:
Saint Louis is the only team in the top 5 that has 4 games left and will have no bye week the rest of the way, we will be playing @ Saint Louis in a similar setting as it was for us when we played UMass as they will end a stretch of 7 games with no time off and will be coming off back-to-back road games @ GW and @ XU. There's a possibility they have the #1 locked up at that point, not saying this means LS wins the game but it's something to possibly put in the column for advantage over them
TU will host URI only 2 days after hosting Detroit on Thursday. URI makes teams play ugly and they provd they can beat a good team in our league already beating SLU. It could make the challenge a little harder for the Owls and may be that 6th league loss we want them to have.
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 25, 2013 15:25:12 GMT -5
another Top 100 road win would be VERY helpful. Where are we going to get that? He's saying if the Bonnies RPI gets there. |
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 25, 2013 15:29:26 GMT -5
Where are we going to get that? He's saying if the Bonnies RPI gets there. Got it. Makes sense. |
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Post by coachd on Feb 25, 2013 16:46:00 GMT -5
I just want to see two things in the next 9 days or so...
1. Explorers win the 2 games at Gola from start to finish.
2. All the posters on here with the default Avatar to find a unique image!
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 25, 2013 17:03:51 GMT -5
Other good news is that CCSU moved back above (below?) 200 and sits at a 195 RPI right now, sort of taking away that awful loss and making it only a bad loss.
It's the little things...
Also - Dayton MIGHT be able to claw its way back to Top 100 status but it's a long shot at this point based on their play. SBU winning at home over Charlotte would not surprise me at all. Not sure if it would be enough to get them over(under?) 100. either way, it would help.
if all else fails, the win at SLU is an opportunity.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2013 7:50:10 GMT -5
Other good news is that CCSU moved back above (below?) 200 and sits at a 195 RPI right now, sort of taking away that awful loss and making it only a bad loss. It's the little things... Also - Dayton MIGHT be able to claw its way back to Top 100 status but it's a long shot at this point based on their play. SBU winning at home over Charlotte would not surprise me at all. Not sure if it would be enough to get them over(under?) 100. either way, it would help. if all else fails, the win at SLU is an opportunity. If CCSU qualifies for their conference tournament they will play the 1 seed next week and that will help our RPI. |
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Post by lwc4591 on Feb 26, 2013 8:57:55 GMT -5
Why can't we lose 11-12 games like Nova and still hear how we should make the Big Dance. Talk about unsportsmanlike conduct that is how many small schools get screwed so we can let these spoiled, pampered and way over rated Big Brat schools into the Dance who clearly don't belong. A10 6 wins, Big Brats 1 win versus each other in top half of league.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2013 13:05:41 GMT -5
We are ahead of Nova in just about every prognostication or bracket. Nova is still talked about so much because they are an anomaly and because they played most recently. I saw these conversations in the context of their being still on the bubble, a real head scratcher with four high quality wins and three bad losses.
La Salle would definitely be IN, if the season ended today no doubt about it, but there's still work to be done to secure that bid, because if you look at the A10 standings, we could be seeded anywhere from 1 to 8 in a matter of two weeks, and that affects our first and second round matchups. Also, our RPI can't get better than it is unless we run the table in Brooklyn. It will go down if we go 2-1. It will maintain if we go 3-0.
I go back to my posts from months ago when the sched came out. STL is a chip we really need on our resume. It would leave no doubt no matter what happens in Brooklyn.
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