WH predicts 20+ wins for LA SALLE 2012-13

[Deleted]

www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/472066-lasalle-noncon-forecast.html

WH said:

LA SALLE

W- NOV. 10 DELAWARE
W- NOV. 18 CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
W- Nov. 20 at Hartford
W- NOV. 25 VILLANOVA
W - Nov.29 at Rider
W- DEC. 5 PENN STATE (AT THE PALESTRA)
W- Dec. 8 at Northeastern
L - Dec. 15 at Bucknell
W- DEC. 20 IONA
W- DEC. 22 SACRED HEART
L - Dec. 29 at Siena
L - Jan. 2 at Miami (Fla.)
W - JAN. 5 PENN


La Salle doesn't have an especially strong sched, but every game is winnable and the Explorers should be favored in every contest except for Villanova.

Delaware nipped La Salle last year at home and is perhaps the favorite for the watered-down CAA. coached by former SJU assistant Monte Ross, Delaware has a solid frontcourt and good guards. Yet this time, Lasalle returns the favor.

La Salle follows wth wins over a mediocre C Conn State at home and Hartford on the road. Hartford, coming off a 22-loss season, is coached by yet another SJU alum in John Gallagher, but he has nine freshmen.

Then the big one. For once La Salle can claim a superior backcourt to Villanova and the Explorers beat the Cats for the first time since ... 2001!

La Salle, if wants to merit tournament, consideration, absolutely has to avoid a letdown and beat Rider on the road like a drum. The difference in talent is too stark to allow an upset. Incidentally, Rider is also coached by a ... St Joe's alum!

Penn State is a weak team in rebuilding mode. Explorers should handle with relative ease in the Palestra.

La Salle's first loss will likely come on the road against Northeastern or Bucknell.

Northeastern is a young and upcoming team (14-17) with a solid backcourt and some athletic forwards. Bucknell returns almost all its key players from a 25-win team, including Mike Muscala. La Salle beat both teams at home last season. They won't get a sweep on the road, though.

Iona only has four players returning - three of them starters, though - from a 25-win team that went to the NCAAs. Too young to beat LaSalle at home. Sacred Heart is also easy prey.

Siena rapidly improved as the season wore on and Albany is never an easy place to play. LaSalle needs to this game, and should win if it fancies itself a postseason team. I go conservative and call it a loss (A-10 suck Factor).

La Salle has a huge chance for a signature win at Miami. Very winnable game, but I take Larranaga's discipline over DrG's laxness.

Explorers finish with arch-rival Penn and win a classic Big 5 battle.


NONCON FORECAST: 10-3

A-10 FORECAST: 10-6

OVERALL PREDICTION: 20-9

[calsufan]

10-3 non-conference sounds about right. I'm not sure I agree with all the wins and losses, but all in all we will lose2 or 3 games. The bigger problem is that if we lose 3 games in the non-con and 6 games in conference, the best we can hope for is the NIT again.

[explorerman]

A weak OOC unfortunately for does that

[luhoopsfan]

it's the same predicament as last year - essentially you have to go undefeated in the OOC because there are not enough opportunities for good wins to cancel out good losses and the rest of the quality opponents are basically non-existent. MAYBE going 2-1 against Miami, PSU and Nova gets it done, problem is, you need to prove you can win on the road and you only have 1 opportunity to do that so you can't lose that game, plus you can't lose at home, so in reality you do have to go 3-0 most likely.... but then you cannot lose to anyone else. No matter how "tough" it is to win at Sienna and Bucknell, they aren't viewed as quality losses by a selection committee.

Only saving grace is that the league schedule will be brutal and hopefully everyone has strong OOC performances (us included) so that when everyone is knocking each other off, none of the losses are "bad" and if you can be fortunate to have double-digit wins it should get you to the Big Dance.

For my money, I'll bet that the A10 is the toughest league top-to-bottom than any league this year. No, we don't have a single championship-caliber team, i admit that, so the tops of the BCS leagues are better, no doubt, but the top teams in most of thos eleagues would probably have a tougher time in the A10 than their own leagues this year because the middle and bottom of our legue is really, really strong.

[explorer88]

I don't think there is anything wrong with the schedule except we don't have sexy teams coming into Gola.

La Salle's NCAA hopes rides on how well we do in the A-10. I agree with hoopsfan that the A-10 might be one of the best conference this year top to bottom. If we do well in the conference combined with 10 to 11 OCC wins we may be dancing.

We just have to avoid bad losses and beat some very good A-10 teams. It would help to win at Miami but we cannot falter within the conference.

Top 5 finish in the A-10 will get it done.

[Deleted]

Explorer88 is correct about OOC!! The #114 OOC schedule suffices, especially because we know it will get better than that when we face some vastly improved A10 opponents.

Drexel had quite a bit weaker OOC schedule and that only hurt them because they were a marginal team on paper, losing some of the most critical in-conference games against Old Dominion and against Delaware. They want to blame the schedule, but their close losses to worse teams were unimpressive.

In 2006, GW had a much more questionable schedule but was able to somewhat overcome these limitations to qualify for the NCAA by winning 26 in a row. Drexel just needed a win here or a win there and they would have qualified, as GW proved can be done on almost any D1 schedule.

There is no way to punch your ticket to the dance unless you are a good team and WIN THE GAMES YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO WIN. On the other hand, our schedule won't be the reason we stay home. Our schedule gives us a shot, whereas an all BCS schedule would require us to 1) play on the road a ton more 2) absorb some more losses.

Explorer88, I do not think the A10 is automatically more than a three bid NCAA league but I hope you are right that the 4th or 5th place teams, which will surely be somewhere on the bubble, are going somewhere as well.

[explorer88]

I think conference is a sure fire 3-4 bid league. Another 2-3 on the bubble. Question is whether the 2-3 on the bubble can do enough to get in. Most likely, La Salle will be one fo those 2-3 teams.

[talkinbball]

Somebody needs to point out to WH how clever we are in scheduling our OOC for RPI purposes.

[jellybean]

For what it is worth, I see 20-9 ( 9-7 a10) record for regular season. Will be mentioned in NCAA Bubble talk until Selection Sunday. Don't think we get invite to Big Dance.

Must beat Nova this year. Can't have any slips in OCC. A10 is brutal but it makes you tougher. Can't afford losses to bottom half of league. Need to make Quarter finals and really help our cause if we take a step up to Semi's.

Questions for the season.

1.How will Garland perform? Needs to shake off the rust but remember he didn't set the ACC on fire.

2.Will Zack live up to the buildup? I think he'll be vastly improved but will he give us production of a former player? If he can give us 5.8 and 4.7, I'm very happy.

3.Can Wright give us 25 minutes a game? If he can he will be a beast and we will be better than expected. I'm looking for him to do that and give us 13 pts and 7.5 rebounds a game. Also needs to improve his 61% FT%.

4. Will Dunn get out of G's doghouse?

5. Will DJ Peterson have a breakout year?

6. Will Duren get a little LESS minutes especially before the stretch. Last 11 games he averaged 37 mins a game and production dropped. 10.8 pts and 34 assists with 29 turnovers.

7. Will Sam Mills breakout or is he at his ceiling? For some reason, I think there is more to his offensive game than we've seen. I'd like to see him in the teens.

8 Will Brown-Davis-Hunt give us what Steve Zack gave us production-wise?

9 Will Ramon be 1st team A10 or have senioritis?

Thoughts appreciated.

[las71]

I actually thought Zack played well in spurts as a freshman. I hate to sound cynical but we have not had great success with our bigs so my expectations weren't very high and I found him to be a pleasant surprise. I think he will continue to surprise.

[lasallescreamer]

Screamer says:No reason to think that Garland will not be good;Zack will be better on boards;JW will play 28/game;Dunn will not play much-where r the minutes; DJ will be great if he gets 20+/game;Duren can play less bec. of depth; Mills could step up if he and G see him as more than a complimentary player which could be trough because of depth;Ramon will be grfeat bec. he is talen ted and sees himself as a star. I see a contribution from Davis/Hunt/Brown as a key.We have to get past StJ, Temple and UMass which r all physical teams. Being out-rebounded and pushed around is not good on scoreboard and it is also depressing. The backup BIGS need not score but must play good D, absorb fouls, and balance the floor so JW is not playing against all of STJ bigs by himself.We did well- but not great last year with four guards, but the next level requires a more balanced contribution. Is the praise of Zack by G a way of letting the guards know there will be a few less minutes for them? I stand on my prediction of a great year;23-6,A-10 Championship Game and NCAA.

[lasallescreamer]

Sorry for terrible typing; tired and Eagles are making me ill.

[calsufan]

Oct 14, 2012 15:34:15 GMT -5 lasallescreamer said:

Sorry for terrible typing; tired and Eagles are making me ill.

Eagles have been making me ill all season, but these last two games have been ridiculous.