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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 9, 2021 12:12:27 GMT -5
I think there are a lot of variable at play this year. Our winning percentage would suggest we hit 8-10 or 7-11 this year. That's linear movement in a vacuum but we all know that the league is better this year. The NET ratings for the conference in Ash's 3 years: 2018-19: 10 2019-20: 8 2020-21: 9 This would suggest the league isn't "better this year"
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Post by explorergrad08 on Feb 9, 2021 12:16:03 GMT -5
I don't think debating the difference between finishing 8th or 10th is really worth it. You could argue the league is better top to bottom this year compared to last. It's been a weird year though. Next year is an important step. Ash has shown he is a good young coach. He's pretty well regarded around the conference as well. The roster is my concern, it's young and needs to continue to develop. I'm hoping Ash can really elevate the sophomores and freshman's game but that takes time and so does the consistency. Ray and Kenney are much better players now than they were a year ago but they can't do it alone. I think this team needs land an impact player next year. If you replace Beatty and Spencer with a real impact player and your underclassmen continue to develop it changes a lot. I think Jack Clark is 50-60% of what he could be. He hasn't scratched his potential. A full summer/offseason for him, and he'll be the top recruit the team gets. Clark, Brickus, Gill, Moore, Kenney could be the starting 5 next year, with Ray coming off the bench. Or flip flop Gill & Ray. That's a top 6 you can win with if they get incrementally better and cohesion is built. Add Kimbrough to the mix, and Shepherd who could surprise, and that's 8 guys. Probably need one guard ready to play 10 minutes per game (could that be Ward? the new commit?), but outside of that I think the pieces could be there to compete for a top 5 seed next year. Again, if the improvement happens and the cohesion is built.
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Post by explorergrad08 on Feb 9, 2021 12:35:51 GMT -5
I think there are a lot of variable at play this year. Our winning percentage would suggest we hit 8-10 or 7-11 this year. That's linear movement in a vacuum but we all know that the league is better this year. The NET ratings for the conference in Ash's 3 years: 2018-19: 10 2019-20: 8 2020-21: 9 This would suggest the league isn't "better this year" Do you believe the league is better this year than previous years? Or are you finding numbers to fit your narrative?
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 9, 2021 13:16:18 GMT -5
The NET ratings for the conference in Ash's 3 years: 2018-19: 10 2019-20: 8 2020-21: 9 This would suggest the league isn't "better this year" Do you believe the league is better this year than previous years? Or are you finding numbers to fit your narrative? I found data. But maybe something non-quantitative is more to your liking.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 9, 2021 13:33:40 GMT -5
It doesn't change the math, but the conference RPI itself is a much better metric than rank.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 9, 2021 13:43:21 GMT -5
The only true metric is we have been in the A-10 25 years.
In those 25 years:
1 NCAA tournament 1 NIT tournament 5 Winning Seasons
You can argue the A-10 has not helped La Salle from a basketball standpoint. However, the greatest year since the NCAA championship or 1988-1969 happened while in the A-10.
I think most people hold on to allure La Salle will finally "get it" and put the right amount of resources into the program, select the right coach, land the right player etc.... to turn the program around. That which you cannot quantify would go away if we went to the MAAC or some other lower league.
I would bet the fans would be out on a move from the A-10. Problem is we are losing those fans any way. I would think in the next few years La Salle will be forced to make a decision which way to go.
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Post by explorergrad08 on Feb 9, 2021 14:09:30 GMT -5
Do you believe the league is better this year than previous years? Or are you finding numbers to fit your narrative? I found data. But maybe something non-quantitative is more to your liking. Here is your data. League is much better from a wins perspective and from an eyeball test perspective. KenPom Conference Rankings: 2020-21: +7.21 (8th of 32) 2019-20: +5.01 (9th of 32) 2018-19: +0.56 (11th of 32) 2017-18: +1.28 (10th of 32) 2016-17: +3.95 (8th of 32) 2015-16: +5.48 (8th of 32) 2014-15: +5.61 (7th of 32) Best the league has been since 2014. For reference, some more historical data: 2013-14 (6 NCAA teams): +9.29 (8th of 32) 2012-13 (5 NCAA teams): +8.24 (8th of 32) 2011-12 (4 NCAA teams): +7.64 (T-7th of 32) This year's A-10 is pretty much parallel to 2011-12. Much better than the prior two years.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 9, 2021 14:24:28 GMT -5
Here is your data. League is much better from a wins perspective and from an eyeball test perspective. KenPom Conference Rankings: 2020-21: +7.21 (8th of 32) 2019-20: +5.01 (9th of 32) 2018-19: +0.56 (11th of 32) 2017-18: +1.28 (10th of 32) 2016-17: +3.95 (8th of 32) 2015-16: +5.48 (8th of 32) 2014-15: +5.61 (7th of 32) Best the league has been since 2014. For reference, some more historical data: 2013-14 (6 NCAA teams): +9.29 (8th of 32) 2012-13 (5 NCAA teams): +8.24 (8th of 32) 2011-12 (4 NCAA teams): +7.64 (T-7th of 32) This year's A-10 is pretty much parallel to 2011-12. Much better than the prior two years. Conference RPI during Ash's tenure 2018-19: 0.5001 (Rank 11th) 2019-20: 0.5389 (Rank 8th) 2020-21: 0.5146 (Rank 11th) Data from warrennolan.com/basketball/2021/conferencerpi
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Post by explorergrad08 on Feb 9, 2021 14:48:28 GMT -5
Here is your data. League is much better from a wins perspective and from an eyeball test perspective. KenPom Conference Rankings: 2020-21: +7.21 (8th of 32) 2019-20: +5.01 (9th of 32) 2018-19: +0.56 (11th of 32) 2017-18: +1.28 (10th of 32) 2016-17: +3.95 (8th of 32) 2015-16: +5.48 (8th of 32) 2014-15: +5.61 (7th of 32) Best the league has been since 2014. For reference, some more historical data: 2013-14 (6 NCAA teams): +9.29 (8th of 32) 2012-13 (5 NCAA teams): +8.24 (8th of 32) 2011-12 (4 NCAA teams): +7.64 (T-7th of 32) This year's A-10 is pretty much parallel to 2011-12. Much better than the prior two years. Conference RPI during Ash's tenure 2018-19: 0.5001 (Rank 11th) 2019-20: 0.5389 (Rank 8th) 2020-21: 0.5146 (Rank 11th) Data from warrennolan.com/basketball/2021/conferencerpiYou're a big narrative guy, so keep on keepin' on. I won't stop you. The league is better from top to bottom. Ask anyone.
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Post by a10champion15 on Feb 9, 2021 14:50:37 GMT -5
Leaving the A10 isn't up for debate and is a terrible idea that people have talked about for 15 years. It is never happening.
Also, RPI and NET are nearly completely useless this year because of COVID. There wasn't enough non-conference games to get reliable data. Anyone will tell you the conference is better this year. We don't have the elite team this year like last year with Dayton but it's better top to bottom.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 9, 2021 15:16:53 GMT -5
The league is better from top to bottom. Ask anyone. I asked Warren Nolan
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Post by a10champion15 on Feb 9, 2021 18:05:29 GMT -5
The league is better from top to bottom. Ask anyone. I asked Warren Nolan to analyze trash data
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Post by milkoliverwurst on Feb 12, 2021 21:36:04 GMT -5
I don't think debating the difference between finishing 8th or 10th is really worth it. You could argue the league is better top to bottom this year compared to last. It's been a weird year though. Next year is an important step. Ash has shown he is a good young coach. "Good young coach" I'm not calling for his immediate dismissal. I'm saying I am not optimistic about his future at La Salle. With all due respect, help me understand what you have seen to make you feel this way?
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Post by diehardexplorer on Feb 13, 2021 16:44:56 GMT -5
fordham loses by 32 to mason on wednesday. they're losing to st louis by 26 a couple minutes into the second half today.
but people on here found excuses for la salle giving up 76 pts and losing to them last week. sorry, that was inexcusable. fordham is awful.
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Post by thelasallelunatic on Feb 13, 2021 17:06:16 GMT -5
fordham loses by 32 to mason on wednesday. they're losing to st louis by 26 a couple minutes into the second half today. but people on here found excuses for la salle giving up 76 pts and losing to them last week. sorry, that was inexcusable. fordham is awful. Worst loss since Towson 10 years ago.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 13, 2021 17:07:18 GMT -5
fordham loses by 32 to mason on wednesday. they're losing to st louis by 26 a couple minutes into the second half today. but people on here found excuses for la salle giving up 76 pts and losing to them last week. sorry, that was inexcusable. fordham is awful. when people on here say the league is better "from top to bottom", I think they forget the bottom is really really bad .
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