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Post by lasalle89 on Jul 11, 2014 11:59:52 GMT -5
With 10 seconds left down by one who is our go to guy? Two years ago we won most of those games. Last year we didn't. So who is THE guy on this team? Who is the Galloway of the squad? I know there are a lot of unknowns but I feel someone has to emerge as the go to guy when you just have to get a bucket.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 11, 2014 13:01:01 GMT -5
I'd like it to be J-Wright under the basket uncontested.
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big5vet
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Post by big5vet on Jul 12, 2014 10:37:44 GMT -5
Or Jordan Price from deep.
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Post by jellybean on Jul 12, 2014 12:50:53 GMT -5
Or Cleon Roberts from anywhere.
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Post by explorerman on Jul 12, 2014 14:30:57 GMT -5
I wanted to post a more detailed piece for conversation among the board and probably will later this weekend on regarding another post that was discussing next year...
The name that people can't forget is Cleon Roberts. I recognize that he came from the smaller school and wasn't the Top 60 recruit (even though he was a Top 150 recruit); however, for a freshman he put impressive figures. Keep in mind the competition was lessor but their are advanced metrics that do adjust for the position and competition difference.
His effectiveFG was 53.2% which would of put him #2 on our team last team (for players who played more 10 mins per game)... He also had a better WIN Score and GameScore rating than his more documented transfer teammate...
Lastly, and this is what I will post on extensively later, to dispel common opinions that are widely accepted on this board with a variety of metrics, but if Peterson starts and gets more minutes than Roberts at the #3 then Giannini has handicapped this team's success next season.. The numbers are fairly one sided in this argument of which I will present probably tomorrow morning...
To quench your taste for tomorrow's banter:
Mills was not the best guard at defense last year. It wasn't Lewis either, but actually Tyreek Duren.
Johnnie Shuler should either start at point guard or redshirt.
Our best NBA prospect on next year's team, Steve Zack, should be our primary front court offensive option, not Jerrell Wright, who had a higher eFG than Zack last year.
Again, these are either my opinions backed up with data or really conversational comments as this is the quiet part of the year for the board...
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Post by explorerman on Jul 12, 2014 14:49:55 GMT -5
Actually 2 more:
Replacing Jordan Price with Tyrone Garland is worth 4 wins. A 4-game turnaround in the win-loss record is naturally huge, which leads to the next one.
La Salle will be in the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
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Post by jellybean on Jul 13, 2014 10:10:53 GMT -5
Actually 2 more: Replacing Jordan Price with Tyrone Garland is worth 4 wins. A 4-game turnaround in the win-loss record is naturally huge, which leads to the next one. La Salle will be in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Can't wait to see your analysis because I come up with something way less. Garland ,according to basket-reference.com, accounted for 1.2 Wins and had a .054 Win share/per 40 minutes. Price at Auburn played about 15 minutes a game as a FR and had .8 Wins and .083 WS/40. So if we say Price doubles his minutes that would double his Wins to 1.6 or a little higher accounting for a year of development and improving his skills. So let's say he is 2 or even 3 wins better as a player. That's not an improvement of 4 games over Garland. If we compare Sam Mills to Cleon Roberts, we have Sam at 1.6 Wins and .064 WS/40 and Roberts at 2.3 and .103. (BTW, .100 is average). Roberts might actually see slightly fewer minutes this year than we had as a FR. So Roberts would be a .7 Wins improvement over Mills. In my opinion, Roberts and Price as FR were +3.1 and Garland and Mills as SR were +2.8. So Roberts and Price as SOPH should be better but are they improved enough to be +7? Take the team as a whole. The returning group of Zack(2.6), Wright(3.2), Brown(.60 , Peterson(1.2) and Lewis (-.3) accounted for 7.3 Wins last year (Duren accounted for 4.1 himself). Which brings me back to the point I have been making, the key to the season is Stukes. Can we come close to Duren's +4.1? That's a lot to ask of a FR. I'm rooting for him. |
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jul 13, 2014 13:49:58 GMT -5
That's my concern too; I expect a nice jump at the 2 and 3 and the front court is a year older and better but I fear we're understating Duren's departure just like we did Galloway.
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big5vet
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Post by big5vet on Jul 13, 2014 17:09:54 GMT -5
No, we can't exactly count on Amar, as a redshirt freshman, to replace Tyreek in year one. Rothstein likes him which is encouraging. I like him too. From AAU ball, we believe he a very good team player and was a good distributor to Steve Vesturia. Think he can do similar things for teammates - Jordan and Cleon who developed close friendships over previous 12 months. Add in Johnny Shuler to the mix and the PG position will be in good shape albeit one handled by freshmen.
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Post by cpico on Jul 13, 2014 19:40:37 GMT -5
Actually 2 more: La Salle will be in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. We should probably have different expectations after what happened last season. With a bunch of new players on the court for the first time this season, I think anything over .500 would be a really pleasant surprise. But we'll see. |
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Post by lasalle89 on Jul 13, 2014 20:05:14 GMT -5
I set myself up for failure last year. I had us in the top 25 and back to the Sweet 16. This year I am just excited for the season. I have no expectations except for a team that plays hard. I have never seen the new guys play so it's a wait and see. I hope they are athletic though. The plus/minus on wins this season could be 8 games depending on how we gel and how quickly.
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Post by lwc4591 on Jul 14, 2014 8:36:26 GMT -5
With Wright, Zack, Roberts, Price, Peterson, Lewis, Brown and Davis we have experienced NCAA players with four of these eight(Wright, Roberts, Zack and Price) being above average A10 players so these guys are the ones I would look to for leadership. Yes I am aware Price and Roberts have never played in A10 but based on their freshman season in college in which they fared pretty well I think making the above average statement will hold up after they get acclimated to their new team and league. As far as the newcomers go (Stukes, Shuler, Washington, Sauhniuk) I like all four players based on video and what they have accomplished in high school and other leagues played. I think these four freshman will surprise as a group over their college careers with any of the four if not all four becoming solid to good A10 players. I don't expect 20 wins this upcoming season but more like 17-18 wins with a solid chance at an NIT bid. If Price, Roberts or Washington blow up as a player then all bets are off. To me this is the best 12 scholarship players G has had at any given time since he joined La Salle. G has small guards,big guards,small forwards,big forwards and big centers. Look for more inside play this season due to our very good size and depth. I hope G always has minimum of three crashing the boards because I am sick and tired of getting pounded in that area.
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Post by explorerman on Jul 14, 2014 19:08:26 GMT -5
Actually 2 more: Replacing Jordan Price with Tyrone Garland is worth 4 wins. A 4-game turnaround in the win-loss record is naturally huge, which leads to the next one. La Salle will be in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Can't wait to see your analysis because I come up with something way less. Garland ,according to basket-reference.com, accounted for 1.2 Wins and had a .054 Win share/per 40 minutes. Price at Auburn played about 15 minutes a game as a FR and had .8 Wins and .083 WS/40. So if we say Price doubles his minutes that would double his Wins to 1.6 or a little higher accounting for a year of development and improving his skills. So let's say he is 2 or even 3 wins better as a player. That's not an improvement of 4 games over Garland. If we compare Sam Mills to Cleon Roberts, we have Sam at 1.6 Wins and .064 WS/40 and Roberts at 2.3 and .103. (BTW, .100 is average). Roberts might actually see slightly fewer minutes this year than we had as a FR. So Roberts would be a .7 Wins improvement over Mills. In my opinion, Roberts and Price as FR were +3.1 and Garland and Mills as SR were +2.8. So Roberts and Price as SOPH should be better but are they improved enough to be +7? Take the team as a whole. The returning group of Zack(2.6), Wright(3.2), Brown(.60 , Peterson(1.2) and Lewis (-.3) accounted for 7.3 Wins last year (Duren accounted for 4.1 himself). Which brings me back to the point I have been making, the key to the season is Stukes. Can we come close to Duren's +4.1? That's a lot to ask of a FR. I'm rooting for him. Good post and I am sorry that I haven't returned! The only thing is that I do not like Win Shares for a variety of reasons: 1) Defensive Rating is really an estimate of box score figures (Garland is no way our 5th best defender like Defensive Win Share or comparable to Sam Mills like those figures show) and it really depends how good your team is defensively. Here is an example (I am stealing): Omer Asik was traded from the defensively dominant Chicago Bulls to the Houston Rockets, where he has to adjust for the mistakes from James Harden and a roster of rookies. Few people watching Asik this year would say he has dropped off significantly in defensive intensity or skill. However, the previous year his rating was 2nd and before that, his rookie season, he was 3rd. This season? 68th. The Rockets are a league average defensive team because of him; when he's off the court they're terrifyingly bad, yet win shares only sees a player who's a great defensive rebounder with some blocked shots on a mediocre defensive team. Defensive Win Shares Ratings (2011- 97; 2012- 92 and 2013-103) 2) Win Shares also restrict your totals due to the amount of wins your team has for a season which can deflate a player's rating especially when comparing players from other teams or years 3) It does not consider the position played. Also, assumes that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute. We know Garland didn't and was a late sub out of important defensive situations. Considering that I use ValueAdd or, mainly, Win Score which speaks not to necessarily wins but do you create a negative or positive contribution to the team. It is not restricted to the amount of team wins overall. Also, it considers and compares amongst others in the same position. I will post later in specific detail but last season Lewis AND Garland were both produced negative win shares which means you produce a negative contribution when on the court and when you play as many minutes as Garland did, your negative influence gets magnified. Lewis was even worse with a larger negative WinSc. For everyone wondering, there were only 3 players that produced negative win scores Also with my statement about wins, comes my believe that Jordan Price and Cleon Roberts will benefit from the change of scenery like Ramon Galloway did. Their respective playing styles are very similar. The improvement in metrics is because there is not a structured offense to limit a player's skill set which is exactly what South Carolina did to Galloway, GA Southern did to Roberts and especially Auburn did to Price.. The spread offense will be for these guys as it, was for Ramon, and that is fantastic. Ramon's advanced metrics like Win Score (WinSc) and, even Win Shares, jumped over 100% between his 2nd and 3rd years. With another strong improvement into his 4th year. To the posters talking about the difference in the PG position play and will Stukes/Shuler make up for the lack of Duren, I remind that in a spread offense the PG has a lessor role. In a spread you have 3 players that can bring the ball up and iso against a defender. Duren was so important last year because Mills, Lewis and Garland were extremely limited offensive players and were not effective in the spread. Duren's Junior Year, Galloway had most of the penetration and Duren was the secondary option. With Roberts and Price, 2 players that obtain the skill set the need for a primary ball handler is lessened as Roberts and Price will be the primary iso options. Duren will certainly be missed! Imagine what another 7-8 points per game would have done to our record, I don't think that would be too difficult considering the offensive improvements in 4 of 5 starting spots on the team, especially at the 2 and 3 position. Off of the top of my head, I believe that would have impacted the Manhattan, Penn State, Providence, VCU (regular time), STL and George Mason. I think that would produced a completely different season, no? I will be back and will look forward to intelligent conversation! |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jul 15, 2014 9:19:46 GMT -5
Awesome post
Best offseason conversation we've had all season. I had a similar post shortly after seasons end about how 6-7 PPG offensively would've changed our season dramatically. One thought missing is that price and Roberts could also help improve the overall team defense, so the PPG swing could be much greater. Consider possibly 2-3 PPG better defensively and all you need is a 4 PPG offensive improvement which feels pretty attainable.
Explorerman = Sam Hinkie ?
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