Post by 23won on Feb 12, 2014 14:45:21 GMT -5
4-5. 12-11. Nothing to jump up and down about, right? For sure, but it's nothing to slit your wrist over either.
So what have we learned and where do we go? Let's start with numbers, since they don't lie.
1) We had 5 losses against teams with a combined 78% winning perecentage.
We have 4 wins against teams with a combined 55% winning perecentage.
We have 7 remaining games against teams with a combined 57% winning perecentage.
Take-away: There is a good chance we can finish 5-2, maybe 6-1.
2) G-eality. G has played a small lineup more often than not due to 4 guard success last year.
Reality #1. That lineup has produced a 4-5, 12-11 record this year.
Reality #2. Our overall FG offense is ranked 12/13 in A10.
Reality #3. Our FG 3 point offense is 12th in A10.
Reality #4. Our bigs are shooting well over 50%.
Takeaway: Guard offensive productivity decline is a major reason for where we are. Thus, drop the small guard, D first mentality and .500 play outcomes in favor of more effective and productive offense. Instead, play scorers and bigs with heavy minutes. Most of this was achieved in a near upset of St Louis; if we can get that close, we can have more success if we continue and tweak that formula a bit. It was a lot more funwatching St Louis than UNI, Providence, etc.
"How to" Take-Away: We need (1) Jerrell and Steve on the floor as much as possible, (2) Tyrone playing 28 minutes with a red light on 3s, (3) we need Khalid playing more and creating scoring opportunities (but with a red light on the 3 ball), (4) we need Reek working to get open for more 3s, (5) we need Sam getting less minutes but staying fresh with an emphasis on getting and taking (without hesitation) open look 3s. If 4 and 5 can happen, Khalid can have more space to operate and get the ball to the other players on the court with the most open looks. Khalid will be a major point guard or us next year, we might as well advance the timetable and give him primary pooint responsibility for 20 minutes or as much as he can handle.
3) G-eality. Point number 2 makes some sense, but I can't give up a guard, defense first approach.
Reality #5. See Reality #1-3 above.
Reality #6. Our turnover margin is 8/13 in A10.
Reality #7. Our steals are 10/13 in A10.
Reality #8. Our rebound margin is 9th, but (1) #6 is just a few ticks away, and (2) G has played Steve and Jerrell in the low 50 minutes per game all year without any help from a real #3. Up their playing time, and the bigs' advantages will produce far better numbers and outcomes.
4) G-eality. The difference between winning and losing is so miniscule.
Reality #9. No sh!t. Now it's time to put on some big boy pants and a thinking cap and (a) analyze Reality 1-8 against each slightly different opponent remaining and (b) implement the takeaways above with some tweaks based on an opponent by opponent basis.
5) Perception. It's too late to do this with any meaningful outcome.
Reality #10. Wichita State had a veteran team last year, but was saddled with injuries and a 5-5 record going into a key stretch at the end of last season.
Reality #11. The Shockers got healthy, went with their most productive lineup and went on a late season roll.
Reality #12. The Shockers had veteran guards and productive bigs. They merely needed health and time to get the combinations right.
Possibility ?. Do I think we make a final 4 appearance like the Shockers - no, unless the ensuing change is incredibly great. Real Possibility. I do think it is eminently "doable" to finish strong against the remaining schedule now that the toughest teams are behind us. If you look at the current last 4 in and last 4 out, you have sju, UR and UD. Beat these teams fellas, and continue the roll in NY and it's possible not only to advance the goal of "staying great" but to up it by "staying in the dance."
Go Explorers!
So what have we learned and where do we go? Let's start with numbers, since they don't lie.
1) We had 5 losses against teams with a combined 78% winning perecentage.
We have 4 wins against teams with a combined 55% winning perecentage.
We have 7 remaining games against teams with a combined 57% winning perecentage.
Take-away: There is a good chance we can finish 5-2, maybe 6-1.
2) G-eality. G has played a small lineup more often than not due to 4 guard success last year.
Reality #1. That lineup has produced a 4-5, 12-11 record this year.
Reality #2. Our overall FG offense is ranked 12/13 in A10.
Reality #3. Our FG 3 point offense is 12th in A10.
Reality #4. Our bigs are shooting well over 50%.
Takeaway: Guard offensive productivity decline is a major reason for where we are. Thus, drop the small guard, D first mentality and .500 play outcomes in favor of more effective and productive offense. Instead, play scorers and bigs with heavy minutes. Most of this was achieved in a near upset of St Louis; if we can get that close, we can have more success if we continue and tweak that formula a bit. It was a lot more funwatching St Louis than UNI, Providence, etc.
"How to" Take-Away: We need (1) Jerrell and Steve on the floor as much as possible, (2) Tyrone playing 28 minutes with a red light on 3s, (3) we need Khalid playing more and creating scoring opportunities (but with a red light on the 3 ball), (4) we need Reek working to get open for more 3s, (5) we need Sam getting less minutes but staying fresh with an emphasis on getting and taking (without hesitation) open look 3s. If 4 and 5 can happen, Khalid can have more space to operate and get the ball to the other players on the court with the most open looks. Khalid will be a major point guard or us next year, we might as well advance the timetable and give him primary pooint responsibility for 20 minutes or as much as he can handle.
3) G-eality. Point number 2 makes some sense, but I can't give up a guard, defense first approach.
Reality #5. See Reality #1-3 above.
Reality #6. Our turnover margin is 8/13 in A10.
Reality #7. Our steals are 10/13 in A10.
Reality #8. Our rebound margin is 9th, but (1) #6 is just a few ticks away, and (2) G has played Steve and Jerrell in the low 50 minutes per game all year without any help from a real #3. Up their playing time, and the bigs' advantages will produce far better numbers and outcomes.
4) G-eality. The difference between winning and losing is so miniscule.
Reality #9. No sh!t. Now it's time to put on some big boy pants and a thinking cap and (a) analyze Reality 1-8 against each slightly different opponent remaining and (b) implement the takeaways above with some tweaks based on an opponent by opponent basis.
5) Perception. It's too late to do this with any meaningful outcome.
Reality #10. Wichita State had a veteran team last year, but was saddled with injuries and a 5-5 record going into a key stretch at the end of last season.
Reality #11. The Shockers got healthy, went with their most productive lineup and went on a late season roll.
Reality #12. The Shockers had veteran guards and productive bigs. They merely needed health and time to get the combinations right.
Possibility ?. Do I think we make a final 4 appearance like the Shockers - no, unless the ensuing change is incredibly great. Real Possibility. I do think it is eminently "doable" to finish strong against the remaining schedule now that the toughest teams are behind us. If you look at the current last 4 in and last 4 out, you have sju, UR and UD. Beat these teams fellas, and continue the roll in NY and it's possible not only to advance the goal of "staying great" but to up it by "staying in the dance."
Go Explorers!
