Post by 23won on Feb 8, 2014 10:48:47 GMT -5
We have had a real hard time with the Billikens, but I think that if we take a much different approach on player personnel and substitution patterns, we actually can win today. To do that, we have to understand StL's strengths this year and not try to beat them based on the last time we played them last year.
So, to break down their strengths, StL wins (20-2, AP#13) because 1) they play great defense; 2) they don't make mistakes; 3) they are experienced and have great guards; 4) they have balance and score with equal contributions from the frontcourt and backcourt; 5) they don't force 3s and shoot far less 3s than in years' past, and as a result have an effective 3 point shooting percentage; 6) they do not over-play key players and use 7 core players and 3 lesser used players, and as a result the best players generally play under 30 minutes a game.
If you compare those strengths to what La Salle has underachieved on this year, it is a pretty depressing sutuation, unless G IMPLEMENTS change in how he uses his players against StL and uses it (a) for purposes of turning the season around with a win today and/or (b) as a teaching experience to learn how to beat St Louis at the Barclays Center, where we'll need to win if we want to play in A tourney this year. We have had some success with (1), (2) and (3) above this year, but it has not been consistent, so I will save suggestions on better consistency on points (1) - (3) for the end of this discussion.
Scoring Balance and Efficiency (#4 Above) In the games we have lost, the general reasons for the loss can be attributed to the following : (i) departure from early success in frontcourt scoring, (ii) poor offensive flow and passing around perimeter, with the result that we take a forced or low quality shot, and (iii) horrendous 3 point shot selection and very low 3 point accuracy. This can be fixed with a variety of solutions, including (I) continuing to go to the low post, and having a plan for defeating a Jerrell double team (a common and constant phenomenon) by picking for a perimeter player off ball to cut to an open space near Jerrell for a dish and finish (this never happens), (II) emphasizing the need for perimeter motion, better spacing and quick passing, and (3) revoking 3 point shooting privileges for Tyrone (23%), DJ (25%), Lewis (23%) and Rohan (11%) unless we are winning by at least 8 and it is an incredibly high quality shot. Reek (38%) and Mills (41%) are the only green light 3 options. Emphasizing balance, and success with low post scoring, also will enable better perimeter shots. Our guards also have to resist driving in deep and forcing a shot near the rim against 2 or 3 tall defenders; they need to dribble or pass out. We are ranked 313th nationally and 12th in the A10 (out of 13) in offensive field goal shooting percentage; if we don't make changes, including those mentioned above, this terrible stat will continue and we will remain a .500 team.
More Selective and Less 3 Point Shooting (#5 Above). See point (3) in the prior paragraph.
Use of Players/Substitution Patterns (#6 Above). This has been an oft discussed topic and I will not recycle past thoughts, but only offer the following. We can match up against StL, but we have to resist the desire to sub for mismatches (that worked with Ramon last year but is not working this year) and instead keep guards as fresh as possible and all players locked into one player (i.e., resist the constant switching and try to mark and stay with YOUR man as much as possible). In this regard, I think we should line up mano a mano and stick with it. Some guys will get less time than normal and some will get more than others, but that is what could be a major difference in approach that works in this game. This year we match up well as compared to years' past, and we should take advantage and sub in synch with Crews' substitution patterns as much as possible; almost all of the following players match up size wise and athletically and should be on the court the following minutes, based on average playing time for StL players this year: Mills- Jett (29 Min.); Garland - McBroom (5'9" and the only big starter 3 ball threat to mark) (23 minutes); Duren - Mc Call (29 minutes); Wright - Evans (29 min.); Zack - Loe and Manning (38 min.); Brown - Glaze (15 min.); split DJ and Lewis 11 min each - Barnett (22 min.); Lewis - Crawford (watch the 3 ball threat off the bench) (7 min.); split Davis 3.5 and Wright 3.5 min. - Lancona (7 min.); Brown - Aghelco (6 min.).
Improve Defensive Efficiency (#1 Above) Our overall defense is average (6/13 in A10) but our 3 point D is horrendous (12/13 in A10). Bottom line is our perimeter D has been pathetic, especially when we get torched with 3s while our offense goes into extended scoring ruts, leading to 18-0 runs or worse (GW, UNI, Providence, UMass, St Bona ...). We have to amp up the D when we have these offensive ruts. Keeping guards fresher and committing to matchups and limiting reliance on switches (as noted above) will help. We also can't let bigs wander out for easy 3s and I have noticed Zack and DJ failing to match up and giving away 3s on bigs on may occasions. This has to stop, especially today, since Loe is capable of sneaking out for 3s and can light up a gaming changing 3 or 4 3s, which would kill us if we give it away.
Continue to Limit Turnovers (#2 and 3 Above). We have done a good job with turnovers this year. We need to continue to do that today. In the close games that StL has prevailed on (wins over Valpo by 2, URI by 1, Duquesnse by 4, Mason in OT, Bonnies by 6) the notable difference in the boxscore was an advantage in turnover margin in StL's favor. If we can eliminate that advantage in this game (and we are capable of doing this, as we won at home against StL 2 years ago), we can win this game.
Final Point - Rebounding In its 2 losses (Wich State and Wisc.) and in most of the close wins noted above (Mason, Duq and Valpo), StL lost the battle of the boards, creating opportunity for the other team. We can have this advantage if G plays his bigs as noted above, we do a good job boxing out and the refs give us a fair game. Jerrell gets some phantom calls that puts him in PF trouble, but G has to let up and let him play; when we had no choice in the NCAAs, he came through then and I think he can come through today as well. We cannot go small, as we will not force turnovers against this experienced StL guard unit, but if we do and put DJ on a big like Evans, Evans will have a monster night. We can't go that route and have a prayer of winning.
Stay fresh, be smart (not stubborn), box out (all guys, not just bigs) and go with the game plan above, and we WILL succeed!
So, to break down their strengths, StL wins (20-2, AP#13) because 1) they play great defense; 2) they don't make mistakes; 3) they are experienced and have great guards; 4) they have balance and score with equal contributions from the frontcourt and backcourt; 5) they don't force 3s and shoot far less 3s than in years' past, and as a result have an effective 3 point shooting percentage; 6) they do not over-play key players and use 7 core players and 3 lesser used players, and as a result the best players generally play under 30 minutes a game.
If you compare those strengths to what La Salle has underachieved on this year, it is a pretty depressing sutuation, unless G IMPLEMENTS change in how he uses his players against StL and uses it (a) for purposes of turning the season around with a win today and/or (b) as a teaching experience to learn how to beat St Louis at the Barclays Center, where we'll need to win if we want to play in A tourney this year. We have had some success with (1), (2) and (3) above this year, but it has not been consistent, so I will save suggestions on better consistency on points (1) - (3) for the end of this discussion.
Scoring Balance and Efficiency (#4 Above) In the games we have lost, the general reasons for the loss can be attributed to the following : (i) departure from early success in frontcourt scoring, (ii) poor offensive flow and passing around perimeter, with the result that we take a forced or low quality shot, and (iii) horrendous 3 point shot selection and very low 3 point accuracy. This can be fixed with a variety of solutions, including (I) continuing to go to the low post, and having a plan for defeating a Jerrell double team (a common and constant phenomenon) by picking for a perimeter player off ball to cut to an open space near Jerrell for a dish and finish (this never happens), (II) emphasizing the need for perimeter motion, better spacing and quick passing, and (3) revoking 3 point shooting privileges for Tyrone (23%), DJ (25%), Lewis (23%) and Rohan (11%) unless we are winning by at least 8 and it is an incredibly high quality shot. Reek (38%) and Mills (41%) are the only green light 3 options. Emphasizing balance, and success with low post scoring, also will enable better perimeter shots. Our guards also have to resist driving in deep and forcing a shot near the rim against 2 or 3 tall defenders; they need to dribble or pass out. We are ranked 313th nationally and 12th in the A10 (out of 13) in offensive field goal shooting percentage; if we don't make changes, including those mentioned above, this terrible stat will continue and we will remain a .500 team.
More Selective and Less 3 Point Shooting (#5 Above). See point (3) in the prior paragraph.
Use of Players/Substitution Patterns (#6 Above). This has been an oft discussed topic and I will not recycle past thoughts, but only offer the following. We can match up against StL, but we have to resist the desire to sub for mismatches (that worked with Ramon last year but is not working this year) and instead keep guards as fresh as possible and all players locked into one player (i.e., resist the constant switching and try to mark and stay with YOUR man as much as possible). In this regard, I think we should line up mano a mano and stick with it. Some guys will get less time than normal and some will get more than others, but that is what could be a major difference in approach that works in this game. This year we match up well as compared to years' past, and we should take advantage and sub in synch with Crews' substitution patterns as much as possible; almost all of the following players match up size wise and athletically and should be on the court the following minutes, based on average playing time for StL players this year: Mills- Jett (29 Min.); Garland - McBroom (5'9" and the only big starter 3 ball threat to mark) (23 minutes); Duren - Mc Call (29 minutes); Wright - Evans (29 min.); Zack - Loe and Manning (38 min.); Brown - Glaze (15 min.); split DJ and Lewis 11 min each - Barnett (22 min.); Lewis - Crawford (watch the 3 ball threat off the bench) (7 min.); split Davis 3.5 and Wright 3.5 min. - Lancona (7 min.); Brown - Aghelco (6 min.).
Improve Defensive Efficiency (#1 Above) Our overall defense is average (6/13 in A10) but our 3 point D is horrendous (12/13 in A10). Bottom line is our perimeter D has been pathetic, especially when we get torched with 3s while our offense goes into extended scoring ruts, leading to 18-0 runs or worse (GW, UNI, Providence, UMass, St Bona ...). We have to amp up the D when we have these offensive ruts. Keeping guards fresher and committing to matchups and limiting reliance on switches (as noted above) will help. We also can't let bigs wander out for easy 3s and I have noticed Zack and DJ failing to match up and giving away 3s on bigs on may occasions. This has to stop, especially today, since Loe is capable of sneaking out for 3s and can light up a gaming changing 3 or 4 3s, which would kill us if we give it away.
Continue to Limit Turnovers (#2 and 3 Above). We have done a good job with turnovers this year. We need to continue to do that today. In the close games that StL has prevailed on (wins over Valpo by 2, URI by 1, Duquesnse by 4, Mason in OT, Bonnies by 6) the notable difference in the boxscore was an advantage in turnover margin in StL's favor. If we can eliminate that advantage in this game (and we are capable of doing this, as we won at home against StL 2 years ago), we can win this game.
Final Point - Rebounding In its 2 losses (Wich State and Wisc.) and in most of the close wins noted above (Mason, Duq and Valpo), StL lost the battle of the boards, creating opportunity for the other team. We can have this advantage if G plays his bigs as noted above, we do a good job boxing out and the refs give us a fair game. Jerrell gets some phantom calls that puts him in PF trouble, but G has to let up and let him play; when we had no choice in the NCAAs, he came through then and I think he can come through today as well. We cannot go small, as we will not force turnovers against this experienced StL guard unit, but if we do and put DJ on a big like Evans, Evans will have a monster night. We can't go that route and have a prayer of winning.
Stay fresh, be smart (not stubborn), box out (all guys, not just bigs) and go with the game plan above, and we WILL succeed!
