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Post by stlexplorer on Oct 27, 2013 3:53:45 GMT -5
As dumb as it is to post a preseason rating, I kinda feel like it's exciting to have some actual basketball data to debate as opposed to media stories and personal expectations: 21. VCU 31. St. Louis 55. La Salle 60. UMass 66. Richmond 68. Dayton 74. St. Joseph's 89. George Mason 120. George Washington 132. Rhode Island 146. St. Bonaventure 173. Duquesne 198. Fordham kenpom.com/ |
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Post by vasalos on Oct 27, 2013 7:03:45 GMT -5
What's interesting is the coveted 4th A10 spot. It's really up in the air between the analysts. Picking UMASS 4 is interesting. Outside of the A10 he is really overvaluing Minnesota. They're young and they have an up and coming coach. But he might have them way too high on the list.
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expbrady03
Utility Bench Player
Back from the grave
Posts: 158 
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Post by expbrady03 on Oct 27, 2013 7:52:13 GMT -5
We had 7 votes in the Coaches Poll and landed at 55 with KenPom? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we finish higher than that when its all said and done. Very interesting that Temple is ranked 4th in the city way down at 88. What has Sam the Eagle shown up on Squawk Hill to warrant the #3 spot in the city? That team is consistently overvalued.
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Post by explorerman on Oct 27, 2013 8:20:15 GMT -5
Well we lost our highest rated KenPom player and subbed him with an inefficient player (Garland) and a player who struggled with shooting, leading to a lower KenPom score (Lewis). The statistical projections can't make dramatic adjustments for Summer improvement.
If there two players that would make a jump higher than what the projections would make, it would be garland and Lewis.
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Post by broderickpresident on Oct 27, 2013 8:50:39 GMT -5
The projection has us going 18-10, 10-6. It's missing the 2 "TBD" games in St Thomas. The individual projections have us going 20-8, but the overall # factors in some losses in games that are basically tossups. Looks like about half our A-10 games project to be within 3 points. The #s are pretty meaningless until teams start playing, but they're indicative of the how competitive the A-10 is. It will once again come down to winning the close ones. That's the difference between La Salle and Dayton last year
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Post by a10champion15 on Oct 27, 2013 11:40:09 GMT -5
The projection has us going 18-10, 10-6. It's missing the 2 "TBD" games in St Thomas. The individual projections have us going 20-8, but the overall # factors in some losses in games that are basically tossups. Looks like about half our A-10 games project to be within 3 points. The #s are pretty meaningless until teams start playing, but they're indicative of the how competitive the A-10 is. It will once again come down to winning the close ones. That's the difference between La Salle and Dayton last year I understand the projection, it makes sense. However, those expectations can be beaten as someone said before simply due to garland, lewis and maybe someone else like Zack. Interested to see how they improve but I imagine Garland is much improved. I also don't think were going to lose 4 games in the OOC. I only see three as of now but we shall see. Also seeing how favorable our schedule is I don't think will lose 6 conference games. Perhaps my expectations are too high.......Already prepared to get my ticket for La Salle @ Villanova. |
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 27, 2013 13:00:18 GMT -5
KenPom's a great tool but any season prognostication for anywhere is going to be off. For instance, Garland only had about half a season. And he played mostly in-conference games which are usually tougher than regular season contests. So his efficiency numbers will be down compared to other players who had a chance against Hartford or whoever.
It also doesn't factor in Jerrell's performance. Wright was limited in minutes because of foul trouble but was off-the-charts in the final stretch of the season. I seriously think he could become the most efficient player in the entire A-10. His FG% has been over 57% both seasons. That is absolutely terrific. And against harder competition w/o Steve playing, his FG% was well over 60%. He should get a lot more looks this year. If he gets 3-4 more shots per game, his FG% gets up around 60%, he gets to the line more and shoots at a better FT% rate and turns the ball over a bit less than he's an absolute monster.
All of this is absolutely possible. He averaged 24 minutes a game. That should increase by a few.
I really think JW will have an absolutely monster season. Like one of the best seasons any La Salle big man has had in memory.
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Post by stlexplorer on Oct 27, 2013 13:59:07 GMT -5
KenPom's a great tool but any season prognostication for anywhere is going to be off. For instance, Garland only had about half a season. And he played mostly in-conference games which are usually tougher than regular season contests. So his efficiency numbers will be down compared to other players who had a chance against Hartford or whoever. It also doesn't factor in Jerrell's performance. Wright was limited in minutes because of foul trouble but was off-the-charts in the final stretch of the season. I seriously think he could become the most efficient player in the entire A-10. His FG% has been over 57% both seasons. That is absolutely terrific. And against harder competition w/o Steve playing, his FG% was well over 60%. He should get a lot more looks this year. If he gets 3-4 more shots per game, his FG% gets up around 60%, he gets to the line more and shoots at a better FT% rate and turns the ball over a bit less than he's an absolute monster. All of this is absolutely possible. He averaged 24 minutes a game. That should increase by a few. I really think JW will have an absolutely monster season. Like one of the best seasons any La Salle big man has had in memory. Very well said |
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big5vet
Utility Bench Player
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Post by big5vet on Oct 27, 2013 14:13:03 GMT -5
Ken Pomeroy's system has tended to undervalue our actual results over the previous few seasons in my opinion. At he conclusion of last season, before the NCAA run, we ranked in the 44-48 range. I'm also surprised we are a 75% favorite over Temple. Pomeroy rankings have us an underdog vs Providence and Maryland in the Paradise Jam. I don't envision OOC losses to both Penn St and Miami either. I'm believing we'll finish slightly better than 18-10 and 10-6 in the Atlantic 10, also recognizing two Paradise Jam games are not included in this early prognostication.
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 27, 2013 14:27:01 GMT -5
I haven't checked KenPom in ages. But one of the things he always tracked was "luck factor." I forget what constituted that but I also remember one year we were down near the bottom in FT% against -- as in our opponents made well above the average # of FTs. There's nothing you can do about that.
Last year, I'm sure we would have done really well in the luck category, if you factor in that we won in the final minute or OT against Northeastern, Nova, St. Bonaventure, Butler and Ole Miss. So much luck goes into winning a game in any sport.
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