NIT Bracketology

[Gnocchi]

Before last Saturday's games.

bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Other teams considered for the NIT (ABC order): Eastern Michigan, La Salle, Manhattan, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, UNLV, Wake Forest.

The NIT bracket had the Bonnies in as a #7 seed, before their home loss to Overbrook, leaving SBU at 6-9 in the A-10 with a road game at VCU left.

If the Explos beat Mason, Overbrook and the Bonnies, will they be in? Looks like, yes. More interesting question is beating Mason and Overbrook to finish 8-8 in the A-10 but losing to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tourney, for the 2nd time out of 3 matchups.

Or will none of this matter, with it all being over after the first game of the season and the loss to the Jaspers after the timeout and ensuing turnover when up 3 with the ball in O.T.?

What say the Explorertown Bracketologist?

[big5explorer]

Cannot believe after losing one player we are on the outside looking in for an NIT bid. It's the most disappointing season I can remember.

[lasalle89]

Last Four to the Final Four. Same mantra but wrong tournament. This season has been a bust. We keep waiting for something to change. When we had that five game win streak I thought we turned the corner. Losing the VCU game and G stating we won't be able to get over that proved to be true. Would love to win the next three and extend the season for the seniors. Think TD needs to play the two so he can shoot the three.Must continue to leave JW out there and play Zack as much as possible. Still don't know why Dunn isn't getting more minutes. Seems to be the best shooter right now. Turn overs must be kept to a minimum. We just aren't that good. We need everything clicking just to win a game this year.

[fvp47]

This did cause me to take a look at Live Rp, realtimerpi and the NCAA rpi,

LaSalle in general 88-89. Notre Dame 116-120.

Always something to smile about.

[vasalos]

If La Salle can win their last two there's a chance at an #8 seed in the NIT. It's going to be real close.

[theneumann64]

I think they need 3 more wins. I will stand by that.

[Deleted]

I'm not sure what carries more weight with the NIT selection committee, but what La Salle currently has going for it is a strong SOS (currently at 34) and a RPI (88) within striking distance of getting consideration (last year, Providence (78), Indiana St (79), Washington (82), St Joe's (87), and Florida State (88) all got in.

If La Salle can beat George Mason and St Bona, that might be enough to jump the RPI another 5 spots. If they can pull an upset at St Joe's, that's probabably another ten spots on top of that. You'd be looking at a 17-14 record with an RPI in the low 70's going into the A10 quarterfinals against most likely St Louis. I think that would be enough to get them into the NIT. A loss to SLU would not drop the RPI any lower and may even raise it a couple spots.

And even if they lose at St Joe's, a road loss to a team with a high RPI (currently 34) would probably jump La Salle's RPI another few spots, getting them to the high 70's/low 80's. The question then is would a .500 record eliminate them from consideration. Another question is how much weight does the selection committee give the ESPN metric BPI. I seem to remember two years ago that La Salle's strong BPI played a big part in them getting a high NIT seed. Their BPI is much lower (currently 108) this year. That may keep them out more than anything. We have to hope that the committee gives equal weight to the SOS and RPI.

Another thing that would help would be as many regular season champions of the one bid leagues also winning their conference tournaments. The ones that don't get an automatic NIT bid instead. Last year, 10 of the 32 NIT bids were used on this, with 7 of those bids going to schools that had no shot at an at-large bid.

To say the least, this has been a disappointing season for the team and the fans but maybe sneaking into the NIT and going on a run there would take some of the sting out of it. Would love to see this senior class go out on a positive note.

[a10champion15]

You people are f*ckin ridiculous. Every god damn thread turns into how disappointing this season is. Give it a rest already. I would love to know how many times the word disappointing has been used on this board and it is same poster same comments..... enough already.

This thread is about discussing their NIT chances, nothing else. The team didn't do well this year but the seasons not over.

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2014 12:56:26 GMT -5 a10champion15 said:

You people are f*ckin ridiculous. Every god damn thread turns into how disappointing this season is. Give it a rest already. I would love to know how many times the word disappointing has been used on this board and it is same poster same comments..... enough already.

This thread is about discussing their NIT chances, nothing else. The team didn't do well this year but the seasons not over.

Please tell me that wasn't directed at me.

[calidelphia]

Mar 4, 2014 6:40:19 GMT -5 big5explorer said:

Cannot believe after losing one player we are on the outside looking in for an NIT bid. It's the most disappointing season I can remember.

whu whu whu whatt!?!? I can remember much more disappointing seasons in the past 5 years and this season isn't over. 

Having one Pro Level player (albeit euro league) like ramon was a blessing that shouldn't be taken for granted.  If we make NIT's (slim chance, but a chance) it's still 3 tournament seasons in a row.  It's a validation of all the hard work the seniors have put in this year.  We hadn't even made the NIT in 19 years before 2011-2012. 

[calidelphia]

Mar 4, 2014 7:16:30 GMT -5 lasalle89 said:

Last Four to the Final Four. Same mantra but wrong tournament. This season has been a bust. We keep waiting for something to change. When we had that five game win streak I thought we turned the corner. Losing the VCU game and G stating we won't be able to get over that proved to be true. Would love to win the next three and extend the season for the seniors. Think TD needs to play the two so he can shoot the three.Must continue to leave JW out there and play Zack as much as possible. Still don't know why Dunn isn't getting more minutes. Seems to be the best shooter right now. Turn overs must be kept to a minimum. We just aren't that good. We need everything clicking just to win a game this year.

Dunn has been one of our best shooters but as you mentioned to's need to be limited and he has had some tough to's, walks, double dribbles etc. Love the energy he brings but I agree with rotating him in as we have seen G do this year.  He has made some great shots but also some momentum stopping mistakes that he has owned up to the moment they happen.  Just a great character player but not the answer here. 
Sam on the other hand has played through some pretty bad injuries and I still think he could likely have been that guy to get it done with a few shots falling earlier in the season.  That would have completely changed the tone of this season.  I am glad to see what he is doing now and he has begun to earn his minutes.

[a10champion15]

Mar 4, 2014 13:11:09 GMT -5 @kjmac12 said:

Mar 4, 2014 12:56:26 GMT -5 a10champion15 said:

You people are f*ckin ridiculous. Every god damn thread turns into how disappointing this season is. Give it a rest already. I would love to know how many times the word disappointing has been used on this board and it is same poster same comments..... enough already.

This thread is about discussing their NIT chances, nothing else. The team didn't do well this year but the seasons not over.

Please tell me that wasn't directed at me.

Not it was not. You have actual interest in La Salle's nit chances despite the team not meeting expectations others just feel a constant need to beat up on this team and season.

[MisterD]

"How was dinner, honey?"

"Most disappointing thing since this La Salle basketball season."

[durenduren]

Mar 4, 2014 12:56:26 GMT -5 a10champion15 said:

You people are f*ckin ridiculous. Every god damn thread turns into how disappointing this season is. Give it a rest already. I would love to know how many times the word disappointing has been used on this board and it is same poster same comments..... enough already.

This thread is about discussing their NIT chances, nothing else. The team didn't do well this year but the seasons not over.

In their defense, it has been a painful and arduous season. Not much isn't going to trigger a similar response, and I can't blame them really. Don't know why talk of the NIT bubble would elicit trigger anything but.

[Gnocchi]

The Bonnies remain a 7-seed despite their home loss to Overbrook, as the Explos fall off the radar despite a tough road win at Fordham. Manhattan also in as a 7-seed.

bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Games through Tuesday March 4 (before Dayton, a 2-seed, beat SLU on the road last night)
Other teams considered for the NIT (ABC order): Cleveland State, Eastern Michigan, Miami (FL), New Mexico State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Western Michigan

Note: Regular season conference champions which do not receive a bid to the NCAA tournament will receive an automatic bid to the NIT. In the seven years since this rule was implemented, an average of 9 teams have entered the NIT automatically.

[big5explorer]

Mar 4, 2014 13:21:51 GMT -5 calidelphia said:

Mar 4, 2014 6:40:19 GMT -5 big5explorer said:

Cannot believe after losing one player we are on the outside looking in for an NIT bid. It's the most disappointing season I can remember.

whu whu whu whatt!?!? I can remember much more disappointing seasons in the past 5 years and this season isn't over. 

Having one Pro Level player (albeit euro league) like ramon was a blessing that shouldn't be taken for granted.  If we make NIT's (slim chance, but a chance) it's still 3 tournament seasons in a row.  It's a validation of all the hard work the seniors have put in this year.  We hadn't even made the NIT in 19 years before 2011-2012. 

I'm not taking Ramon for granted. But he isn't an NBA player. And we got Zack back from injury. 5 of these guys played huge, huge minutes last year, and they have another year of experience under their belt. And they have a losing record.

How can anyone seriously believe this team has a chance at an NIT bid?. 15 in the loss column against some very average teams? This is flat-out a gigantic disappointment after bringing 5 solid players back from a Sweet 16 NCAA team. How is it not?

You know how many points Galloway in LaSalle's win against #9 Butler last year? Six.
You know he was only 6 of 15 (40%) from the field with 5 turnovers in the win against Kansas State?

Let's stop pretending Ramon was this team's only player.

[calidelphia]

1. It's true, as I mentioned, he is not playing in the NBA.
2. He didn't start the game against butler, was in bad shape mentally after hearing his mom was in jail right before the game and still closed out the game winning point. That is the difference that we missed this year.
3. Having a guy that drew attention away from Wright, and Garland forced teams to alter their D and freed them up for game winners. Those two were literally triple teamed if they had the ball, last night in particular.

Point being, defenses could key on our guards and on wright this year because we lacked just one offensive piece. It's important to remember that you don't win or lose in the box score and that it is a team game. It's also important to remember that we weren't a great team last year, we defended well and won all our close games though.

I did not say that he took every game over, was the teams only player, or that without him we are short on talent. I agree they should have expected to win more games this year. If we had scored 8 points more total in 4 games we could have a bid at this point. One guy can be that 2-3 point difference in any particular game, and he can create greater efficiency of other players allowing them to get those points.

If you notice I made that post when we were .500 for the season.

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2014 11:14:52 GMT -5 @kjmac12 said:

I'm not sure what carries more weight with the NIT selection committee, but what La Salle currently has going for it is a strong SOS (currently at 34) and a RPI (88) within striking distance of getting consideration (last year, Providence (78), Indiana St (79), Washington (82), St Joe's (87), and Florida State (88) all got in.

If La Salle can beat George Mason and St Bona, that might be enough to jump the RPI another 5 spots. If they can pull an upset at St Joe's, that's probabably another ten spots on top of that. You'd be looking at a 17-14 record with an RPI in the low 70's going into the A10 quarterfinals against most likely St Louis. I think that would be enough to get them into the NIT. A loss to SLU would not drop the RPI any lower and may even raise it a couple spots.

And even if they lose at St Joe's, a road loss to a team with a high RPI (currently 34) would probably jump La Salle's RPI another few spots, getting them to the high 70's/low 80's. The question then is would a .500 record eliminate them from consideration. Another question is how much weight does the selection committee give the ESPN metric BPI. I seem to remember two years ago that La Salle's strong BPI played a big part in them getting a high NIT seed. Their BPI is much lower (currently 108) this year. That may keep them out more than anything. We have to hope that the committee gives equal weight to the SOS and RPI.

Another thing that would help would be as many regular season champions of the one bid leagues also winning their conference tournaments. The ones that don't get an automatic NIT bid instead. Last year, 10 of the 32 NIT bids were used on this, with 7 of those bids going to schools that had no shot at an at-large bid.

To say the least, this has been a disappointing season for the team and the fans but maybe sneaking into the NIT and going on a run there would take some of the sting out of it. Would love to see this senior class go out on a positive note.

We now need to win one more to finish 16-16 and get consideration. If we get to 17-16 with a win over SLU and another good RPI game on Saturday, we would be a lock for NIT.

But this late in the year I don't think RPI is as fluid as you suggest. If it goes up with a loss to St Louis then it goes down with a win over Mason and the two effects cancelled.

Never mind about the last two games going the wrong way. RPI doesn't care who you beat, it only cares who you schedule, and how well they do against their opponents. Whether you beat particular opponents or not is inconsequential to the overall RPI so giving up a loss at home to Mason recently nullified a St Joes road bonus as well.

All I mean to say is the game results mean more to us than RPI at this point. We will either fall one game below .500 and have a non qualified resume, orwe will finish at .500 and be in pretty good shape. Good news is we don't have to sweat RPI details anymore.

[glorydays]

For my own personal convenience, I would entertain....the Explos opening the NIT at the University of Delaware...if the Hens were to lose the CAA championship tonight and we were to grab 2 wins in Brooklyn.
Now, that is probably a far fetched scenario.

[Gnocchi]

Manhattan projected in as a 7-seed.

bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

Ouch...

[phillysports07]

you mean NCAA tourney? Because they got an automatic bid for winning their conference tourney

[Gnocchi]

Good catch. Missed last night's tourney results and the NIT bracket from earlier today had yet to be updated and still had Manhattan in the NIT. Iona, as the regular-season MAAC champ, is now in the NIT and projected as a 6-seed. Before they beat Iona, the NIT bracket had Manhattan in as a 7-seed.

bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

[phillysports07]

7 automatic bids in NIT so far

[theneumann64]

Yeah any chance we had at the NIT is really being hurt by all of these auto bids being snatched up. I didn't think we had much shot without 2 more wins, I think we definitely don't now.

[Gnocchi]

Mar 11, 2014 20:15:04 GMT -5 phillysports07 said:

7 automatic bids in NIT so far

Eight, after Mount St. Mary's took out RoMo in the NEC tonight. Need ND St. to prevail over IPFW in the Summit. Right now the Bison are down 48-47 with 7 minutes left. Eight auto bids in the NIT ain't all that bad historically.

"Note: Regular season conference champions which do not receive a bid to the NCAA tournament will receive an automatic bid to the NIT. In the seven years since this rule was implemented, an average of 9 teams have entered the NIT automatically."

[theneumann64]

Mar 11, 2014 21:34:08 GMT -5 Gnocchi said:

Mar 11, 2014 20:15:04 GMT -5 phillysports07 said:

7 automatic bids in NIT so far

Eight, after Mount St. Mary's took out RoMo in the NEC tonight. Need ND St. to prevail over IPFW in the Summit. Right now the Bison are down 48-47 with 7 minutes left. Eight auto bids in the NIT ain't all that bad historically.

"Note: Regular season conference champions which do not receive a bid to the NCAA tournament will receive an automatic bid to the NIT. In the seven years since this rule was implemented, an average of 9 teams have entered the NIT automatically."

Nice piece of analysis. Still a few more to go though, even after tonight.

[Gnocchi]

Quite a few: America East; Big Sky; Big West; Conference USA; Mid-American; MEAC; Patriot; Southland; SWAC; Sun Belt; and WAC.

Was asleep at the switch, again, figuring the 1-bid leagues were done -- maybe from the Explos' MAAC* days and Monday final. Not to be contrary, but on further review, might have to term it a HSPOA -- Horsesh*t piece of analysis.

*Speaking of the MAAC days of yore, Explo alumnus Jeff Neubauer, who played and learned at the feet of Speedy, stole a bid Saturday night with E. Kentucky in the OVC, putting Belmont in the NIT.

[gjc576]

Mar 11, 2014 22:25:46 GMT -5 Gnocchi said:

*Speaking of the MAAC days of yore, Explo alumnus Jeff Neubauer, who played and learned at the feet of Speedy, stole a bid Saturday night with E. Kentucky in the OVC, putting Belmont in the NIT.

awesome to hear! i will jump on the eastern kentucky bandwagon. hoping they avoid a 15 or 16 seed.

[Gnocchi]

Boston U. goes down to A.U. in the Patriot and Prairie View takes out Southern in the SWAC. Now up to 10 bid stealers in the NIT.

[Deleted]

Mar 12, 2014 23:36:07 GMT -5 Gnocchi said:

Boston U. goes down to A.U. in the Patriot and Prairie View takes out Southern in the SWAC. Now up to 10 bid stealers in the NIT.

No bid stealer in the SWAC. Southern and 3 other teams are ineligible for the NCAA and NIT due to APR issues. The SWAC decided to allow them to play in the conference tournament anyway. Whichever team that has an acceptable APR that advances the furthest in the tournament will get the NCAA bid.

No SWAC teams will be in the NIT. Good chance that Texas Southern and Aaric Murray will be in the NCAA's.