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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2014 21:20:30 GMT -5
If we finish conference play 12-4 (top 4 regular season finish) and win one A10 tourney game do we get in?
If we finish conference play 11-5 (top 4 reg season) what do we need to do in the A10 Tourney to get in?
I know it's early to be discussing this and is going to be tough to get in due to our early season struggles but was curious to get peoples opinions
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2014 22:07:41 GMT -5
We still need to win the A10 tournament. A runner up or semifinal bid could get us a sniff of some brackets, but we would not be a lock. Of course, we were far from a lock last year, and things worked out with other bubble teams losing in some critical games. The A10 may only a two bid or three bid conference if the chips fall correctly. Last year, we had two top 25 wins and belonged to a 5 bid megaconference. This year we have none to hang our hat on, and none remain on the schedule. So I think 12-4 and a semifinal loss is an NIT bid. I think a loss to St Louis in the finals keeps us somewhere on the bubble, waiting for the other bubble teams fates.
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Post by explorerman on Jan 18, 2014 22:21:27 GMT -5
Stop.. Please stop..
Not close yet
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Post by theneumann64 on Jan 18, 2014 22:31:15 GMT -5
To me, at minimum, right now: 13-3 A-10, 2 wins over SLU, VCU, UMass. Other 2 losses (assuming 2-1 to those 3) have to come from no one that finishes below say 7th in the conference. Have to get to at least the A-10 semis (via a Bye and a Win because 13-3 would definitely be top 4 in the conference).
That's the minimum to have a shot. That's 22 and 10. And that's probably not enough. In others words, knock it off.
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Post by durenduren on Jan 18, 2014 22:36:07 GMT -5
What do we need to get in?
A miracle. Let's just be happy we've got enjoyable basketball back.
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Post by theneumann64 on Jan 18, 2014 22:48:46 GMT -5
What do we need to get in? A miracle. Let's just be happy we've got enjoyable basketball back. This. We just beat Temple, which hasn't exactly happened too much. It was an absolutely perfect day for the team, school, Big 5, Atlantic 10 and sports culture of the city of Philadelphia. I understand excitement, and OP is entitled to ask a question, but after that Miami game, I think we were looking like a .500 team. Now, we're playing good ball, and I think the NIT is a very likely landing spot. The only really viable path the Selection Sunday right now is winning 3 or 4 games in Brooklyn. That can't happen until March, so let's just look for better basketball for the time being. If we're talking on Sunday, February 9th and have 1 A-10 loss or less, we can start to talk seriously about bids. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2014 23:14:12 GMT -5
12-4 w/1 A10 tourney win or 11-5 w/ 2 A10 tourney wins along with winning 2 of 3 vs. VCU, UMASS, St. Louis and no "bad " losses puts us in as good if not better position than last year.
We have a stronger schedule this year
We will have had no bad loses. Last year we had central ct
The only thing going against us is we may have not as good quality wins as last year.
We have a very realistic chance of 2 of 3 vs. vcu St. Louis and umass as I believe all are home. So far none our losses would count as bad losses.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Jan 19, 2014 3:23:59 GMT -5
Penn State loss is looking bad. They keep losing Big10 games.
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 19, 2014 7:18:50 GMT -5
Need to be top 4 in A10, then go out and win the A10 Tournament. Its about the only thing this group has yet to accomplish. This is the year.
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Post by mookie on Jan 19, 2014 7:35:40 GMT -5
I'm thinking 12-4 at a minimum with wins over VCU/UMass and St Louis. This teams wins against ranked opponents and against the top tier teams in the conference to show they can beat top teams.
The team will in all likelihood need to be in the A10 finals if we're going to base this on numbers.
If the committee looks at our early season struggles and say Duren was hurt and when he got healthy they became the team we expected then that might help. It's not a given they will look at us thatv way so I wouldn't bank on that.
Either way, that would get us in the NIT and that was a likely scenario (or at the very least) for this team prior to the season after losing Galloway. That would make it 3 consecutive years of post season play with a stronger team next year. As expected... At least in my opinion.
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Post by lasallescreamer on Jan 19, 2014 14:58:02 GMT -5
If we continue to play well and finish strong-but do not win A-10- would NCAA consider TD3s early season injury as well as injury to Lewis. If those 2 are healthy from get-go, we probably have 2 more wins.
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Post by ltrain38 on Jan 19, 2014 15:05:18 GMT -5
Thing is, we don't really have any kind of resume to speak of - we've beaten one objectively good team (GW) and maybe one other that could finish in the top 100 RPI (Quinnipiac), as long as they don't take bad losses in conference. We are seeing much better basketball, but starting this week, we play 9 out of the next 10 against top 100 teams, with 4 of them in the top 50. So yeah, the opportunity is there to build that resume, but we need to go on a ridiculous run against some high-level opponents. No matter how good we are now, it is likely that we take some losses in that stretch and we can't lose more than 3 the rest of the way, as I see, and get an at-large bid. Get a bye, win three in Brooklyn, that's our best bet.
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Post by durenduren on Jan 19, 2014 15:19:36 GMT -5
If we continue to play well and finish strong-but do not win A-10- would NCAA consider TD3s early season injury as well as injury to Lewis. If those 2 are healthy from get-go, we probably have 2 more wins. IF we got there, the committee isn't going to excuse a full two months of crap because of a nagging injury and missing a bench player. |
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Post by coachd on Jan 19, 2014 15:40:46 GMT -5
Just win and the rest will take care of itself. We have to go 11-5 minimum to give ourselves a shot. I am going to enjoy going to my local pubs to watch the games. Our program is setup now... Saturday brought in a new era as future recruits have to see what we are about. Let's enjoy the season.
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Post by vasalos on Jan 19, 2014 15:42:34 GMT -5
Here's a path:
@ St. Bonaventure: W
VCU: W
@gw: W
Duq: W
@umass:L
St. Louis:W
St. Joe's:W
@dayton:L
@richmond: W
St. Bonaventure: W
@fordham: W
George Mason: W
@st. Joe's: L
I think we are limited to 3 losses. If we don't get to 21 wins by the end of conference play we need one or two A10 tournament wins depending on where we stand.. So if we're 12-4 we need at least one win in the tournament. 11-5 then two wins. The fact of the matter is you gotta take this one game at a time. This can all go to hell with a loss Wednesday. Every game is important now. Games against GW, Dayton, St. Joe's, VCU, UMASS and St. Louis are even bigger.
One game at a time.
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Post by stlexplorer on Jan 20, 2014 12:18:36 GMT -5
Lunardi released his latest bracket math today and has us 84th on his S-curve which puts us the 16th team out of tournament as of 01-20-14
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Post by mikesmd77 on Jan 20, 2014 15:35:33 GMT -5
At this stage last year our resume needed help and we responded with two huge wins over Butler and VCU.. need a similar run this year, Anything can happen...
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Post by 23won on Jan 20, 2014 17:48:36 GMT -5
@ St. Bonaventure: W (L)
VCU: W
@gw: W (L)
Duq: W
@umass:L (W)
St. Louis:W (L)
St. Joe's:W
@dayton:L (W)
@richmond: W
St. Bonaventure: W
@fordham: W
George Mason: W
@st. Joe's: L (W)
I can see a way to the finish above - My differences compared to Vasalos are in parenthesis. 13-3 with wins over VCU, UMass puts us at 21-9 headed into the conference tourney. Given the lousy start, we'd need to win 2 in A10 tourney to be safe. Of course, if we pull off a win over ranked St Louis and don't treat the Bonnie game as a trap, we up our chances considerably even if we were to drop a game at UD or UR.
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Post by mookie on Jan 20, 2014 18:06:49 GMT -5
Are the Bonnies really a trap game? Winning it there had always been tough...
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Post by durenduren on Jan 20, 2014 18:19:06 GMT -5
Are the Bonnies really a trap game? Winning it there had always been tough... According to Urban Dictionary, the best part of Olean is the Walmart. Now I know why that's a dreaded trip. |
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Post by mookie on Jan 20, 2014 20:52:22 GMT -5
Are the Bonnies really a trap game? Winning it there had always been tough... According to Urban Dictionary, the best part of Olean is the Walmart. Now I know why that's a dreaded trip. Point taken |
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