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Post by stlexplorer on Nov 20, 2013 21:19:58 GMT -5
From kenpom:
Paradise Jam (TV: CBS Sports Network, Nov. 22-25)
Semis Final Champ 61 Maryland 91.0 63.3 33.5 44 Providence 64.2 48.3 31.0 76 Vanderbilt 35.8 22.7 11.5 108 La Salle 79.9 26.7 11.4 122 Northern Iowa 56.3 21.0 7.6 155 Loyola Mmt 43.7 14.0 4.3 260 Morgan St. 20.1 2.3 0.4 287 Marist 9.0 1.7 0.2
Reason to watch: La Salle finding itself. Maryland gets the edge here by virtue of its first-round friendly against Marist. What’s the deal with La Salle? The Explorers figured to be really good this season, what with bringing back an experienced core form a Sweet 16 team, but they haven’t looked sharp in starting the season 2-2 with ugly wins against Quinnipiac and Siena. Some of this is dumb luck - opponents are making high percentage of their threes (39.7%) and grabbing a ridiculous number of missed shots (39.7% vs. 26.7% last season), too. I wouldn’t take them too lightly here.
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Post by stlexplorer on Nov 20, 2013 21:20:36 GMT -5
Sorry for the bad formatting of those %'s I'm on my phone
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Post by jellybean on Nov 21, 2013 8:20:28 GMT -5
This year La Salle is #199 on defense. Last year was #99 according to Kenpom.
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Post by lwc4591 on Nov 21, 2013 8:28:36 GMT -5
We can't even lose to Morgan State and we win by 6-8 points. After that we are no match for solid teams remaining and limp home 1-2 with an overall record of 3-4. Hartford game we lose but no longer consider it an upset and then get embarrased by Nova and stand at 3-6 when 500 show up for the big game against Wagner which should be a nailbiter.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 8:54:27 GMT -5
We can't even lose to Morgan State and we win by 6-8 points. After that we are no match for solid teams remaining and limp home 1-2 with an overall record of 3-4. Hartford game we lose but no longer consider it an upset and then get embarrased by Nova and stand at 3-6 when 500 show up for the big game against Wagner which should be a nailbiter. Here are a couple gems from you last year. Why don't you give it a break and give the team some more time to get their act together.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Nov 21, 2013 9:14:31 GMT -5
Ha ha ha ha ha. Sorry LWC, but callbacks on fatalists are one of my most favorite internet things. Take a deep breath. Calm down. Its ok.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Nov 21, 2013 9:25:59 GMT -5
Well done KJ. I'm as frustrated as much as anyone - but it's not like we are getting destroyed by these teams. The perimeter defense needs to improve and start forcing TOs, that was the bread-and-butter last year and it's not happening right now. I think a lot of it has to do with our player' collective fear of committing fouls. They've committed fewer fouls this season than last season which is supposed to be impossible and the TO margin is in our favor, but it's not leading to enough extra possessions.
Rebounding needs to improve, but offensively, the team is fine and will be fine. Defense can come around, but I honestly think we need to see some lineup changes. I'm not trying to make anyone the enemy or scapegoat. I think the lineup of Petersen, Wright, Zack, Mills, Duren has played the best. That's who we had on the floor against Siena when it was time to get their shit together. Plus, I think it helps set a better defensive tone early and establish the tempo a bit better and then bring Lewis, Garland and Brown off the bench.
I understand this team could be 0-4 right now, but it could also be 4-0 and at worst should be 3-1. Manhattan is good and the game was on ice.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 9:43:00 GMT -5
I think a lot of it has to do with our player' collective fear of committing fouls. They've committed fewer fouls this season than last season which is supposed to be impossible and the TO margin is in our favor, but it's not leading to enough extra possessions. That's it in a nutshell to me.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Nov 21, 2013 10:08:26 GMT -5
upon further review, it's technically not "fewer" fouls than last year, it's actually about the same when you exclude Wright & Zack. 10.7 last season, 11.1 this season by our guards/wing players.
On TO's, we're taking better care of the basketball this year with fewer TO's and a better TO margin, but only forcing 12 TOs per game as opposed to 14 per game last season. But the overall aggressiveness on the perimeter is visibly lacking. Our guys used to pride themselves on being able to pick up the other team 90 feet from the basket and I feel like we haven't seen any of that this season.
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Post by explorer88 on Nov 21, 2013 10:20:15 GMT -5
upon further review, it's technically not "fewer" fouls than last year, it's actually about the same when you exclude Wright & Zack. 10.7 last season, 11.1 this season by our guards/wing players. On TO's, we're taking better care of the basketball this year with fewer TO's and a better TO margin, but only forcing 12 TOs per game as opposed to 14 per game last season. But the overall aggressiveness on the perimeter is visibly lacking. Our guys used to pride themselves on being able to pick up the other team 90 feet from the basket and I feel like we haven't seen any of that this season. Good stuff hoops. Whatever the reason we need to get back to that because we are not putting enough pressure on the ball. When that happens running an offense is much easier. The team will figure it out.
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Post by golasalle on Nov 21, 2013 10:28:19 GMT -5
I think a lot of it has to do with our player' collective fear of committing fouls. They've committed fewer fouls this season than last season which is supposed to be impossible and the TO margin is in our favor, but it's not leading to enough extra possessions. That's it in a nutshell to me. I was thinking the same thing. Does anyone think that our guys are over-compensating for the new rules regarding hand-checking, etc. and not being as aggressive on defense? Not that I want to see them committing more fouls but it seems weird how few fouls they have committed in the first 4 games. I am hoping that they will adjust.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 10:34:48 GMT -5
Does anyone think that our guys are over-compensating for the new rules regarding hand-checking, etc. and not being as aggressive on defense? Yes.
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Post by lwc4591 on Nov 21, 2013 11:50:10 GMT -5
Kjmac you are taking me to serious. I actually believe the team will turn it around in time. As far as things said in past who in the world hasn't stated things out of frustration on this forum. Kjmac I noticed you didn't post many of th gems I was correct about but I guess that was an oversight or just a convenience.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Nov 21, 2013 12:01:01 GMT -5
I'd actually love it if someone tried to do that with me. Find some reactionary flipout (on the team, not at other posters) that I'd disown now.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 12:05:53 GMT -5
Kjmac you are taking me to serious. I actually believe the team will turn it around in time. As far as things said in past who in the world hasn't stated things out of frustration on this forum. Kjmac I noticed you didn't post many of th gems I was correct about but I guess that was an oversight or just a convenience. You throw enough sh*t against the wall, some of it is going to stick, lwc. I just don't see the need to rip into the team as much as you do, especially after a few games. You claim you're a realist and not a fatalist, now you think we take you too seriously? I can't figure it out.
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Post by jellybean on Nov 21, 2013 12:07:09 GMT -5
Explain to me how the hand checking rule is allowing us to allow wide open 3's? The new rule is a bonanza for point guards with the ball.
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Post by lwc4591 on Nov 21, 2013 12:44:32 GMT -5
Kjmac did you mean I or do you speak for everyone. The team is playing like shit so being critical should come as no surprise. In life you do bad you get slammed you do good you get loved. If the team continues to play like shit believe me you and many others will vent and vent big time. I have supported team when others have been shown tough love but I understood where they were coming from.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Nov 21, 2013 12:51:30 GMT -5
Explain to me how the hand checking rule is allowing us to allow wide open 3's? The new rule is a bonanza for point guards with the ball. we aren't pressuring the ball enough on the perimeter and allowing teams to get their offense flowing. Last year a major component of the defense was picking the ball up at least at 3/4 court and reducing the amount of time teams had to get their offense set. We're sitting back on the perimeter now which is allowing teams to run their offense and get the open looks. Need to get more aggressive on the perimeter to force TOs or hurried offense or bad shots instead of teams getting 30+ seconds to run their offense. If you give teams that much time, eventually someone is going to come wide open. Get that # down to 27 or 28 and you're more likely to be able to force a bad pass or shot. Just one guy's opinion
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Post by jellybean on Nov 21, 2013 13:36:33 GMT -5
The three's are wide open and uncontested. The opponents are making the extra pass when we are caught in switches. Opponents also run plays to pick and screen us. They have movement with both the ball and the man. Hand checking has nothing to do with it.
Just dawned on me. Todd Bozeman is Morgan State HC. One of the "interesting" coaches in D1. Man can coach. Surprised on one hand he's still at Morgan State. Radioactive?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2013 14:08:05 GMT -5
Kjmac did you mean I or do you speak for everyone. The team is playing like shit so being critical should come as no surprise. In life you do bad you get slammed you do good you get loved. If the team continues to play like shit believe me you and many others will vent and vent big time. I have supported team when others have been shown tough love but I understood where they were coming from. It's a long season. You have this team dead in the water after four games. You did the same thing last year on multiple occasions. I'll be critical occasionally, but don't count on me venting "big time". This isn't a pro team. It's college kids. As long as they play hard and represent the school with class, I've never been one to rip them apart.
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Post by durenduren on Nov 21, 2013 14:28:15 GMT -5
Guilty of being down the last few days, but the season is far for over and there's plenty of ways to make a splash.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Nov 21, 2013 15:03:08 GMT -5
The three's are wide open and uncontested. The opponents are making the extra pass when we are caught in switches. Opponents also run plays to pick and screen us. They have movement with both the ball and the man. Hand checking has nothing to do with it. Just dawned on me. Todd Bozeman is Morgan State HC. One of the "interesting" coaches in D1. Man can coach. Surprised on one hand he's still at Morgan State. Radioactive? Exactly my point, we're giving the opponent time to make the extra pass and get set int heir offense because we aren't pressuring the ball enough. last year we were forcing our opponents to get se tin their half court with a lot less time on the shot clock. This year we're allowing them to much time to run their offense which will almost always lead to open looks at the basket. The defense this year isn't forcing the opponent to rush into any decisions. I think this starts with the fact that our guys seem hesitant to get after the initial ball handler.
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Post by jellybean on Nov 21, 2013 17:02:57 GMT -5
Last year in 34 games opponents were 142-470 .302 shooting 3's.
This year extrapolated for 34 games (4.25 games X8) they would be 256-592 .432 from 3. That's a problem and it's not because of the hand check rule or that Galloway isn't here.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Nov 21, 2013 20:54:06 GMT -5
So you don't attribute the lack of fouling to a lack of aggressiveness on the perimeter?
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Post by jellybean on Nov 21, 2013 21:06:48 GMT -5
No I don't when you are on pace to allow 120 more attempts and almost 110 (+80%) more made threes. I attribute it to being out-schemed, slow reactions both mentally and physically. Better ball movement and movement by the opponent.
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Post by golasalle on Nov 22, 2013 8:13:49 GMT -5
Last year in 34 games opponents were 142-470 .302 shooting 3's. This year extrapolated for 34 games (4.25 games X8) they would be 256-592 .432 from 3. That's a problem and it's not because of the hand check rule or that Galloway isn't here. I understand, but you have to be careful of extrapolation of a small sample size. Also, some of this can be attributed to bad luck, especially in a small sample size. I can think of at least 2 long-distance 3s banked in in the Siena game. Some of that will even out, but it does appear that we are allowing more open looks from 3. That being said, I do agree that less aggressive ball pressure is allowing teams to get more comfortable in their half-court sets which can lead to more open 3s.
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Post by jellybean on Nov 22, 2013 8:42:26 GMT -5
I will grant everyone that 4 games is a small sample but it's still (4/30) 13.3%. It's been a long time but I think I remember from a stat class 15% is a good number when sampling. Let's see where we are after Paradise Jam.
I will also agree that two 3's were luck but there is always luck. That doesn't change things for me. Kenpom said we were unlucky because opponents are making an abnormally high percentage of 3's against us. I say it can't be all luck.
Line is 10. I'm figuring we win by 4. Let's hope we cover comfortably. Second game against either Providence or Vanderbilt will be a battle. I give Providence a slight edge over Vanderbilt.
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Post by broderickpresident on Nov 22, 2013 9:21:50 GMT -5
The thing we can control is the number of 3s our opponents attempt. Kenpom claims teams have very little control over opponent 3-pt percentage (with Syracuse being an exception). While I'm not certain I entirely buy that, I agree with his overall point that running shooters off the 3-pt line is huge (and you don't leave yourself open to "bad "luck"), especially when your interior D is as awful as ours. So it's troubling that our opponents are shooting so many more 3s than last season. The main strength of last season's D was how few 3s our opponents took. Hopefully we can recapture that mentality. We gave up a ton of easy layups and dunks last season, just like now. But we can't have that AND teams burying us from deep. Just my 2 cents.
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Post by ltrain38 on Nov 22, 2013 9:25:51 GMT -5
I think running them off the three point line is the key. I think last season we allowed fewer three point attempts than almost anyone in the country (I can't remember exactly where we ranked, but it was incredible). So that helped atone for some of our other defensive failings.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2013 17:24:03 GMT -5
Is this 4 games in 4 days? That's a lot of action. Should help prepare for Brooklyn in March.
Looking forward to TV game Sunday late.
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