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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 6, 2013 13:20:38 GMT -5
My favorite ESPN feature is back: Bubble Watch. sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=144They have us at the top team in the A-10 with "Work To Do." As it goes on, there will be 3 categories: Locks (which Butler already is), Should Be In, and Work Left to Do: |
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Post by vasalos on Feb 6, 2013 13:48:32 GMT -5
Pretty accurate in explaining how wide open our conference is at this time. There will be some huge games in the next two-three weeks that will determine seeding going into the A10 tourney. St. Joe's - Dayton is a monstrous game tonight.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 6, 2013 15:18:42 GMT -5
we defintiely have work "left to do", meaning a continued need to win against lower-rated team and one more win against an equally-rated team - suprisingly there are no more games left against teams with a higher RPI than our own at the moment.
I imagine we will be favored in 6 of our last 8 games by the oddsmakers, we'll see what happens. The guys have played their way into the tournament, all they can do now is play themselves out.
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Post by Shout out to my Cousin Bern on Feb 6, 2013 16:48:35 GMT -5
we defintiely have work "left to do", meaning a continued need to win against lower-rated team and one more win against an equally-rated team - suprisingly there are no more games left against teams with a higher RPI than our own at the moment. I imagine we will be favored in 6 of our last 8 games by the oddsmakers, we'll see what happens. The guys have played their way into the tournament, all they can do now is play themselves out. Well said. Are you thinking the 2 games not-favored would be @temple, @slu? I would think so. I am personally nervous about @bonnies, and Saturday v. Fordham. Bonnies can really score and we don't have a record of playing well after long breaks. |
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Post by explorerman on Feb 6, 2013 19:10:46 GMT -5
We are Auburn, Creighton, UCONN and Mississippi State fans tonight.. They are all playing bubble teams tonight
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Post by vasalos on Feb 6, 2013 20:13:13 GMT -5
Hoopsfan hit right on the head. We ARE in the tournament right now. We control our own destiny. One loss to a team like St. Bonaventure and we are out. I think losses to St. Louis and Temple will be permissible. St. Joe's is the biggest game. Winner might be dancing in March.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Feb 6, 2013 20:29:26 GMT -5
Per Greg Eversmeyer, who has been doing the statistical analysis for our Bracket Report, St. Joseph's is out unless they really go on a roll. They are getting an at-large in under .5% of 10,000 simulations.
~Joe Fedorowicz
Philahoops.com
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Post by vasalos on Feb 6, 2013 20:33:37 GMT -5
If St. Joe's wins tonight (they are currently winning), I don't see them losing their next two games. That's means they will be one game ahead of us when we play them if we win our next two. St. Joe's has been hitting from 3 lately which has saved their butts late in games. Their advantage is their Bigs inside plus the ability to hit from 3. I wouldn't downplay St. Joe's right now. They are on a roll. If they lose tonight then throw my thoughts out the window.
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 6, 2013 20:34:57 GMT -5
Dayton's got a 2 point lead with 5 and a half to go. That game is going down to the wire.
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Post by vasalos on Feb 6, 2013 20:54:25 GMT -5
Huge loss for St. Joe's. More than happy to see Kevin Dillard take over the game for Dayton.
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Post by ltrain38 on Feb 6, 2013 21:25:58 GMT -5
They wouldn't have been ahead of us if they had won tonight. We'd both be 5-3. Hawks should have won this game tonight. I watched it and Dayton (once again) played out of control - rushing shots from three, sloppy turnovers.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Feb 6, 2013 21:39:44 GMT -5
Dayton played well down the stretch. Dillard is good, but Joe's looked terrible offensively. The key is stopping Kanacevic, as the offense flows best through him.
~Joe Fedorowicz
Philahoops.com
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 6, 2013 21:45:08 GMT -5
Keep SJU in half court offense and they get very stake on both ends if the floor. They like to jack threes and dunk alley-oops but when they have to grind out offense in the half court they get impatient and force some things that usually don't end well. Tay Jones can shoot then out of a game in no time if he's off the mark and I personally think they are a much better team without him. The stagnant offense then leaks to their defense and again, if they aren't making sports center they get impatient. It happened late in the game tonight against Dayton and has happened in other games for them as well. Jones dribbles the ball way too much and he reminds me of our own Ruben G. Dayton is a tough place to win, but SJU had that game on ice
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 13, 2013 12:11:41 GMT -5
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 20, 2013 10:25:32 GMT -5
espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatchNew update to Bubble Watch. We're still the top "Work Left to Do Team" although he now moved St. Louis up to "Should be In" status. Hard to argue with our standing right now, although I'd like to see a 2-0 week put us into the "Should Be In" line.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 20, 2013 11:16:35 GMT -5
we will "have work to do" up until the SLU game. losses in any of our 3 games after Temple make our resume very shaky. A win at temple allows more breathing room but I think there's basically the point that is to say that we've beaten a few good to really good teams but not enough in terms of volume so we need to prove we can win the last 2 games at home against inferior opponents and the 1 game on the road against a lower-rated opponent to prove we belong. losses to Temple and SLU don't prove we don't belong, wins solidify we do belong, but losses to GW, DUQ, URI to more harm to the resume than the good of winning against SLU and TU.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 20, 2013 12:51:25 GMT -5
we will "have work to do" up until the SLU game. losses in any of our 3 games after Temple make our resume very shaky. A win at temple allows more breathing room but I think there's basically the point that is to say that we've beaten a few good to really good teams but not enough in terms of volume so we need to prove we can win the last 2 games at home against inferior opponents and the 1 game on the road against a lower-rated opponent to prove we belong. losses to Temple and SLU don't prove we don't belong, wins solidify we do belong, but losses to GW, DUQ, URI to more harm to the resume than the good of winning against SLU and TU. What he said. |
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Post by broderickpresident on Feb 20, 2013 13:23:53 GMT -5
I'd like to think that with a win over Temple, it would take losses to DUQ & URI to keep us out. GW doesn't have strong RPI #s, but is a solid team we've already beat once.
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Post by MisterD on Feb 20, 2013 13:25:31 GMT -5
New "which is better" question. Assume we lose to Temple, beat URI and GW. Is it better to beat St. Louis and lose to Duquesne or beat Duquense and lose to St. Louis?
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 20, 2013 13:25:52 GMT -5
(Basically, is a good win better than a bad loss at this point or vice versa.)
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Post by scarletexplorer on Feb 20, 2013 14:45:37 GMT -5
New "which is better" question. Assume we lose to Temple, beat URI and GW. Is it better to beat St. Louis and lose to Duquesne or beat Duquense and lose to St. Louis? The latter. We have to win the games we're supposed to win, which is Duquesne. St. Louis would be a good loss, even if it were at home. If we go 3-2 it's going to be close, but those three have to come against lesser teams or we're really going to take a hit. |
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 27, 2013 11:08:00 GMT -5
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 27, 2013 11:30:47 GMT -5
I think it's pretty simple math right now. We've beaten enough legit teams at this point that avoiding losses to bad teams is the only piece missing. A win at SLU will only solidify our standing but a loss won't destroy it.
I'm really thinking that SLu might have to grind out it's next 3 games and may be a little out of gas by the time we get to them. They won't be desperate for wins or anything by that point and our guys just might.
If we can keep them from shooting a high % it will allow our guys to get out and run on them where I think LS has a big advantage
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 27, 2013 12:09:31 GMT -5
I think it's pretty simple math right now. We've beaten enough legit teams at this point that avoiding losses to bad teams is the only piece missing. A win at SLU will only solidify our standing but a loss won't destroy it. I'm really thinking that SLu might have to grind out it's next 3 games and may be a little out of gas by the time we get to them. They won't be desperate for wins or anything by that point and our guys just might. If we can keep them from shooting a high % it will allow our guys to get out and run on them where I think LS has a big advantage We have no advantage against SLU. We can win the game by shooting the lights out and the factors you mention coming to fruition. The problem we have to play the ultimate game and they have to have a bad game. Really bad game. A lot of if's have to happen basically. If we need to beat St. Louis to get in the NCAA's then you can pretty much say we are not going to make it. If we have to beat Duquesne, GW, and can lose to SLU but with a win in the A-10 tourney get in.......La Salle still has a decent chance. As a La Salle fan if you are pinning hope on beating SLU and getting in you may be pretty disappointed come end of that game. A real, real tough game for a team built like us to win. |
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Post by broderickpresident on Feb 27, 2013 12:15:50 GMT -5
X's win last night was big. Moved their RPI up to 88, which nudged us up a bit as well. Will also be nice if we can head into selection Sunday with only 1 "sub-100" loss on our team sheet in the committee room.
The next 2 games will hurt our RPI, win or lose, but hopefully we can stay in the high 30s with wins. If we don't run away and hide for each of the next 2 games, they will become the most stressful La Salle games to watch in recent memory.
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Post by victoriouslasalle on Feb 27, 2013 12:19:46 GMT -5
Seems like we are in a very decent spot. Beat GW, beat Duq, win 1 in the A 10. =high probability we are in.
This says a lot about the very good year we have had so far. Just continue to get business done where we have shown we can. We do not have to be spectacular or play over our head. Just play our game!
St Louis could be a nice but unnecessary cherry on top!
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Post by coqui900 on Feb 27, 2013 12:27:49 GMT -5
St. Louis is a great team but they're not John Wooden-era UCLA. If we can beat Butler and VCU (on the road) we can beat the Billikens. It will be tough but they're far from unbeatable. Friggin' URI got them.
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Post by coqui900 on Feb 27, 2013 12:29:21 GMT -5
But, yeah. Let's take care of business against the next two teams and then worry about St. Louis and the A-10s.
We still have a chance to win the regular season. If we win the next two, Butler beats VCU, St. Louis has a slip-up and then we take the Billikens we have the title. Improbable but far from impossible.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 27, 2013 12:35:00 GMT -5
St. Louis is a great team but they're not John Wooden-era UCLA. If we can beat Butler and VCU (on the road) we can beat the Billikens. It will be tough but they're far from unbeatable. Friggin' URI got them. Yeah, and Central Connecticut got us. We are talking in relative terms. SLU can be beaten and we can beat them. But everything as usually it stands to be, they are a very difficult team for us. We are far more likely to achive beating Duquesne, GW, and losing to them while winning one game in the A-10 tourney than sweeping the rest of these games. |
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Post by theneumann64 on Feb 27, 2013 13:02:26 GMT -5
We still got 2 games and that SLU games is 10 days from now. Not saying we need to "focus" because none of us are players or coaches so it doesn't matter really, but we'll drive ourselves crazy worrying about this game every day until then. Let's see what happens on the road to St. Louis first.
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