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Post by fvp47 on Feb 28, 2021 20:50:02 GMT -5
Not ready to throw in the towel yet though like all of you I am not thrilled with the lack of consistency Year Overall Conf Kenpon #of conf teams in top 100 Hawks Kenpon 18-19 10-21 8-10 228 3 189 19-20 15-15 6-12 181 7 260 20-21 9-15 6-11 188 7 192
In Schmidt/s first three years in conference he finished 14th, 11th and 8th.
Just thought I would pass it along.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2021 21:56:04 GMT -5
Didn’t read every post, but a few thoughts I think some people also included. 1. I think there is talent on this team 2. I think Ash deserves a 4th year if the locker room isn’t a dumpster fire 3. The whole staff needs to be humbled 4. This isn’t and never will be Villanova 5. This season is one of the most frustrating of my life
I think everyone will agree we were excited by Ayinde at times. We were with Ed. We were with Stone. We were with Sherif and we were with most of the guys on this roster. Jared never really impressed me, but I think he was fine. What has me beside myself is how much talent I believe is on this team, but how poorly they perform. The turnovers, lack of defense, and sometimes lack of effort have me looking at the bench, and not the players on it. Beating Dayton, SLU and Richmond prove there is talent. I don’t expect to beat everyone. But we have gotten obliterated by bad teams. Lost to awful teams. And that’s what concerns me. That shows there is talent and ability here, but a SEVERE disconnect. And if 2-3 kids transfer, it’s hard to believe we really have progress next year.
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Post by coachd on Feb 28, 2021 23:17:03 GMT -5
Ash has one more year to show he can coach division 1 and develop and keep the guys he recruits. He can fire the assistants this off-season as a start if they are causing the internal problems.
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Post by 23won on Mar 1, 2021 6:51:48 GMT -5
I think there are some overreactions here about Ash and will point out a few things.
Actual peer comparison. Ash’s A10 record percentage for his first three years is within 2% of Mason’s Paulsen, who is looking pretty good right now. Paulsen has the benefits of a big arena, nice safe suburban location, state tax dollar budgets we don’t have and better facilities.
Both coaches have recruited the same way - chasing under the radar players who didn’t grade out for the P5/BE. Mason’s offensive scheme runs better (Ash can improve there) right now, but he’s been there longer so you need to take that into account.
So, with the close games we had this year and some scheme improvement and some better focus on not letting sure Ws (2 this year) slip away, it’s plausible that Ash finishes 2 games over .500 next year. Add one or two transfers who can score the ball and plausible becomes likely with room for 1-3 more wins.
The core group is something to build on - and very young since this class in real eligibility next year is like this (net)
Kenney, Clark, Ray - Soph Jig and Gill - incoming frosh Moore - junior
Jared - senior?
Add two scoring transfers and this is a good 8 you could play above .500 for.
If you fail to add transfers and you retain Beatty and Spencer maybe you play at .500.
Is that the end of the world. Do you trade down to a lower conference where you lose the benefit of selling a recruit PT in one of the best mid major conferences? And where your facilities will still be the worst?
Hey, this is not an ideal situation, but you have to build on what you have to improve and not listen to the noise of the fans who have put on a suicide vest.
The basketball landscape has changed incredibly since ‘13 and immeasurably since the Lionel, Brooks and Durrett days. You can't wave a magic wand to go back there when the teams you could beat back then are eating your lunch locally (Nova, TU, PSU and Rutgers). Time to get real.
If you asked me what two things could help now, I’d say:
(1) Add an assistant with program knowledge of offensive success and implement a greater system of floor spread, proper angles to drive to the hoop, back cuts and off ball movement and let that system take hold over the summer.
(2) Have the BoT write some checks, tap the Glaser money and make this a program with a fighting chance to compete
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Mar 1, 2021 7:02:45 GMT -5
Need to go the Duquesne route and get one of the many local hospital systems to write a check for some signage and exclusive use of our nursing students in clinical work.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 7:55:50 GMT -5
So, with the close games we had this year and some scheme improvement and some better focus on not letting sure Ws (2 this year) slip away, it’s plausible that Ash finishes 2 games over .500 next year. Add one or two transfers who can score the ball and plausible becomes likely with room for 1-3 more wins. Which close games are you talking about? I assume the 2 sure Ws we let slip away were Fordham and St. Joe's. The only other game that was "close" (less than double-digit loss) was Army. Every other game we lost by 11 or more points. Close would be more acceptable in year 3. Our losses were by an average of 15.6 a game. Last year the 15 losses were by an average of 12.8 per game, and 2 years ago an average of 11.8 per game for the losses. We are trending the wrong way. This comes back to my original point. It's not that we lost...it's HOW we lost and showed no improvement.
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Post by 23won on Mar 1, 2021 13:06:46 GMT -5
Those 2 games are correct Glitter. I hear you on the improvement point, but with a young team you're going to have inconsistency. It's not going to be linear progress. It even happens in a good program with experience, like VU's losses to St John and Butler.
The other factor is focusing on and executing high quality shots. If you don't have that ingrained in your DNA (we don't now) and you have 3 guys taking a ton of 3s and shooting under 30%, you're going to lose those games. If you ain't makin' 3s, you have to do a self-check and if that doesn't happen the coach and his analytics guy have to intervene. If that doesn't happen, you have a fail scenario. So it's less about improvement and more about shooting discipline and shot adjustments when the 3s are not falling.
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Post by diehardexplorer on Mar 1, 2021 13:45:50 GMT -5
Those 2 games are correct Glitter. I hear you on the improvement point, but with a young team you're going to have inconsistency. It's not going to be linear progress. It even happens in a good program with experience, like VU's losses to St John and Butler. The other factor is focusing on and executing high quality shots. If you don't have that ingrained in your DNA (we don't now) and you have 3 guys taking a ton of 3s and shooting under 30%, you're going to lose those games. If you ain't makin' 3s, you have to do a self-check and if that doesn't happen the coach and his analytics guy have to intervene. If that doesn't happen, you have a fail scenario. So it's less about improvement and more about shooting discipline and shot adjustments when the 3s are not falling. i stopped reading once you compared la salle's situation to villanova's. come on.
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 14:39:10 GMT -5
Tony Bennett, Fred Hoiberg and Larry K at college level Bennett and Krystkowiak had seven and four years respectively of assistant coaching at or above the level they first got a head coaching job at. They climbed the ladder. Hoiberg is the only actual comp here and he's the singular example of this working out with someone who has no school coaching experience at all. If that justifies Legler, it also justifies tens of thousands of other people. Objectively, Donnie Carr is infinitely more qualified to take over this team. I imagine there aren't a ton of people here who would push it, in no small part because "was a great player for us" isn't a qualification to run a program when you're allowed to hire anyone you want.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Mar 1, 2021 14:48:59 GMT -5
Tony Bennett, Fred Hoiberg and Larry K at college level Hoiberg is the only actual comp here and he's the singular example of this working out with someone who has no school coaching experience at all. Thanks. Feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 17:17:29 GMT -5
It's not going to be linear progress. It looks like the opposite of linear "progress"
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 17:36:58 GMT -5
Shit, I didn't realize our "average point differential in losses" had trended so badly. Might need to re-think everything.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Mar 1, 2021 17:56:27 GMT -5
Shit, I didn't realize our "average point differential in losses" had trended so badly. Might need to re-think everything. We’ll never be good until we lose better.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 18:23:57 GMT -5
Shit, I didn't realize our "average point differential in losses" had trended so badly. Might need to re-think everything. You can see a fairly clear pattern here. That shows me we aren't making progress when we finish lower and lose by more. This gets into number of losses and quality of our play.
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 19:54:25 GMT -5
I’m not going to debate that “stat” and not just because it’s not a real metric of any value, but because we both know you looked at the readily available average scoring margin and it didn’t fit your three year decline concept. We’ve all done it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 20:24:02 GMT -5
FWIW when we went to the NIT on that team with earl Pettis, the only two teams to not have a single double digit loss al season: Us and Kentucky.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 20:45:14 GMT -5
I’m not going to debate that “stat” and not just because it’s not a real metric of any value, but because we both know you looked at the readily available average scoring margin and it didn’t fit your three year decline concept. We’ve all done it. 23won referenced "close games" this year that we lost and spoke about progress. The stat was to show the games we lose aren't getting closer in score year-on-year, but getting greater. At the same time as we are losing by more, we are finishing lower in the standings each year. Closing the gap on "close" games means that line should go up in the graph, not downward.
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 21:15:09 GMT -5
Swear on Duquesne’s new arena you didn’t look at average margin then have to pivot.
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Post by lasalle69bestever on Mar 1, 2021 21:15:28 GMT -5
Shit, I didn't realize our "average point differential in losses" had trended so badly. Might need to re-think everything. We’ll never be good until we lose better. lol (unfortunately)
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 21:25:08 GMT -5
Swear on Duquesne’s new arena you didn’t look at average margin then have to pivot. Swear. It was really to see how many "close" games we had versus last year and the year before.
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 21:25:29 GMT -5
I love pretending this board would be fired up for the future if we had the same record but an “average margin of loss” of 5.7.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 21:33:46 GMT -5
I love pretending this board would be fired up for the future if we had the same record but an “average margin of loss” of 5.7. Not saying they’d be fired up for it. But some of these losses have been some of the most humiliating in history. 78 points to an average mason team in 2 games. Thats downright appalling.
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 22:20:34 GMT -5
We “averaged a double digit loss” before our run in 2013. It’s not a real stat.
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Post by las71 on Mar 1, 2021 22:22:10 GMT -5
I think we should go back to the MAAC. I see this from a somewhat different perspective. The Power5 and Big East are making it increasingly difficult for the other DI conferences to compete and the tournament bids will continue to shrink for all the other conferences. One bid in our years in the A10 is proof enough to me that we need to move to a league where we can compete. I understand that we get more money in the A10 but it's based on the success of other conference teams not our own. Our failure to thrive in the A10 has cost us a generation of fans as graduates in the last 20+ years have had little to get excited about men's basketball. The alums that do attend for the most part grew to love men's basketball when we were in the MAC and MAAC and had great success. Another area where things are stacked against us is the transfer portal. Power teams will use lower conference teams as a farm system. If we get an outstanding underclassman, a big team will make their interest known and the kid will end up in the portal and gone. Will be incredibly difficult for non power teams to hold players who prove themselves at schools like ours given the allure and cost of attendance money big schools offer. As MSNBC shuts down many A10 teams will struggle to get TV coverage and philly area newspapers only cover Villanova with occasional coverage of other city schools. So my question is what do we get from being in the A10? I would prefer us to join the MAAC and work at becoming the Gonzaga of the MAAC. I don't mean we would be as big time as the Zags but every year we could be in the hunt in the MAAC for the NCAA bid. Might generate some excitement on campus and create some life long fans to replace that mostly white haired group sitting in the West stands.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 22:25:25 GMT -5
Last year we lost by 13 to Mason. This year...33 and 35. UMass last year...lost by 8 and 11. This year...19 and 16. Rhode Island last year...lost by 3. This year...13. Davidson last year...lost by 25. This year...24. YAY!!! PROGRESS!!!!!
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Post by MisterD on Mar 1, 2021 22:28:02 GMT -5
This is a great point and no one could easily point out the wins this year.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Mar 1, 2021 22:31:34 GMT -5
This is a great point and no one could easily point out the wins this year. You need to remember the point from which this started from 23won... "So, with the close games we had this year and some scheme improvement and some better focus on not letting sure Ws (2 this year) slip away, it’s plausible that Ash finishes 2 games over .500 next year."I was merely wondering what the "close games" were that we lost besides Army and the 2 sure Ws that got away.
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Post by golasalle on Mar 1, 2021 23:05:52 GMT -5
This is a great point and no one could easily point out the wins this year. You need to remember the point from which this started from 23won... "So, with the close games we had this year and some scheme improvement and some better focus on not letting sure Ws (2 this year) slip away, it’s plausible that Ash finishes 2 games over .500 next year."I was merely wondering what the "close games" were that we lost besides Army and the 2 sure Ws that got away. And I believe he responded to you.
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Post by 23won on Mar 2, 2021 3:28:20 GMT -5
The focus was not on margin of victory but letting 2 sure Ws go. With those wins we are 8-9 and in the same neighborhood in the standings as Richmond and Dayton, who most pundits had high in the standings and dancing. We beat both of those teams!
The larger point below that one was youth and lack of quality shot taking. Everyone in the standings above us other than mass had far more experience than us. SLU is a vet team and we beat them! So I think you have to give them space and time to improve and recognize that this is a damn good league.
I’d rather be in a good league and struggling to improve than settle on the MAAC. Every argument I hear for it I have an argument against. Most notably that you’d be a bigger minor league talent developer there than the A10 if we lucked on a diamond in the rough (and those days are pretty much over anyway) Stated differently do you think we could have recruited Ramon Reke Tyrone jerrell and even Sherif or Jig now if we were in the MAAC? I doubt any would have settled for the MAAC. When we were in the MAAC a lot of that success was around having one or two star players in the lineup. The chance of getting Lionel Doug and Doug Randy on a team now in the MAAC is zero. Those guys would be at BE schools or Penn State Rutgers or MD now. The MAAC would be a disaster. And MAAC era alums are not greater or stronger than other eras. They just have better memories. So please enough with the MAAC already.
Bottom line. Ash gets another year. If he performs at or worse than what he did this year we have a coaching problem. But he needs to get transfers that can compete in the A10. If he doesn’t do that and/or the offensive scheme does not improve significantly we will have this problem next year.
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Post by LaSallePal on Mar 2, 2021 6:06:44 GMT -5
I’d rather be in a good league and struggling to improve than settle on the MAAC. Every argument I hear for it I have an argument against. Most notably that you’d be a bigger minor league talent developer there than the A10 if we lucked on a diamond in the rough (and those days are pretty much over anyway) Stated differently do you think we could have recruited Ramon Reke Tyrone jerrell and even Sherif or Jig now if we were in the MAAC? I doubt any would have settled for the MAAC. When we were in the MAAC a lot of that success was around having one or two star players in the lineup. The chance of getting Lionel Doug and Doug Randy on a team now in the MAAC is zero. Those guys would be at BE schools or Penn State Rutgers or MD now. The MAAC would be a disaster. And MAAC era alums are not greater or stronger than other eras. They just have better memories. So please enough with the MAAC already. Bottom line. Ash gets another year. If he performs at or worse than what he did this year we have a coaching problem. But he needs to get transfers that can compete in the A10. If he doesn’t do that and/or the offensive scheme does not improve significantly we will have this problem next year. I will always like the MAAC's geographic compactness, and the flip side of the upside of the A10 against that doesn't really hold up now that the marquee programs left for greener pastures. I'm still in favor of staying in the A10, but if La Salle gets forced out (and I vaguely hope this happens if it comes with a fat check) the MAAC is the natural destination.
Diamond in the rough days aren't really over, unless we're considering Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference a high major. They produced 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Ja Morant. Other diamonds might transfer or turn pro early, but they had two years and 54 wins with him (and a pretty good run over the last decade even excluding those years). I think we can all agree we would be comfortable with players leaving La Salle because they're that good, leaving behind an average of 27 wins a year. Putting aside that statistical outlier (which wasn't much of an outlier since Murray State has had 3 coaches over the last 10 years and still maintained a high level of success relative to their surroundings), two things: Most of the statistical leaders in the last full season (2018-19) came from non-major schools (ex. Campbell, Hofstra, Detroit Mercy, South Dakota State, Marquette for points per game, Norfolk State, Lafayette, Farleigh Dickinson, Wofford, Florida A&M for 3 point percentage), and La Salle still has the bread and butter of "I hate this major program and I want to come home." Where else are those people gonna go? Drexel? Pretty sure Zach Spiker's still blacklisted. Rider? I almost never hear them mentioned in relation to Philadelphia basketball. Delaware? Not a bad destination, but probably not. Second chances are a great way to build a program if you have the right guy (see: Eric Musselman at Nevada).
I would be surprised if Howard doesn't finish out his contract. I would also be surprised if things improve by the end of that contract, since three years in he still seems a little green. It wouldn't surprise me if the university moves on and then in ten years it turns out he blossomed into a really good coach.
"(unintelligible sounds of elation)"
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