MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Aug 23, 2020 19:18:31 GMT -5
If you took a snapshot of this country six months ago, one in every 2,000 Americans is now dead from Covid. And while it has absolutely been far more devastating to older people, part of that is due to outbreak control. Obviously not enough to resemble every other comparable nation, but enough to avoid the peak my region and places like Seattle saw early on. Anecdotally, of course, but I know three people 50 and under who have been severely affected. A nurse who is late 30s has a month long struggle and is dealing with myocarditis but recovering. A stage actress ~40 had a covid-related stroke and will face a long-at-best recovery. And a 50 year old dad with kids exactly the age of my kids, who we’ve known for as long as we’ve lived in this town, was one of the early fatalities when cases peaked here and hospital space was at a premium. He didn’t have to die, but he did because we weren’t prepared and he was sent home twice before being admitted and never getting back out. That’s what a forced return to normal in the fall will look like. A spike in cases, hospitals getting overwhelmed and then people who don’t have to die dying. A return to campus might seem to be about the kids, although we have no idea the long term effects on the heart and lungs, but it’s more immediately about the professors and support staff and all the workers who make the campus go. If La Salle stayed open, statistically, either there would be a student outbreak that shut us back down or/and our being open would directly kill someone. That’s how this works. All decisions right now suck. I hate that my kids school is closed but I absolutely wanted that to happen because the flipside is what if her favorite teacher or that teacher’s spouse or a custodian or whoever dies. This is, as far as we know, temporary, but the results are permanent. _______ and _______ will never again have their dad. Odds are _______ simply caring for herself again would be a victory. The virus has absolutely fucked us all to varying extents, but adding more bodies to the pile in the interests of normalcy or to prove fortitude or due to economics is absolutely not the way I’d ever want to see this university go. No matter what the consequences.
(And if anyone wants me to cite the anecdotes above, feel free to send a PM and I’ll do so. Everyone I know involved here would love for you to remain frustrated/inconvenienced rather than irreparably harmed.)
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 23, 2020 21:31:06 GMT -5
If you took a snapshot of this country six months ago, one in every 2,000 Americans is now dead from Covid. And while it has absolutely been far more devastating to older people, part of that is due to outbreak control. Obviously not enough to resemble every other comparable nation, but enough to avoid the peak my region and places like Seattle saw early on. Anecdotally, of course, but I know three people 50 and under who have been severely affected. A nurse who is late 30s has a month long struggle and is dealing with myocarditis but recovering. A stage actress ~40 had a covid-related stroke and will face a long-at-best recovery. And a 50 year old dad with kids exactly the age of my kids, who we’ve known for as long as we’ve lived in this town, was one of the early fatalities when cases peaked here and hospital space was at a premium. He didn’t have to die, but he did because we weren’t prepared and he was sent home twice before being admitted and never getting back out. That’s what a forced return to normal in the fall will look like. A spike in cases, hospitals getting overwhelmed and then people who don’t have to die dying. A return to campus might seem to be about the kids, although we have no idea the long term effects on the heart and lungs, but it’s more immediately about the professors and support staff and all the workers who make the campus go. If La Salle stayed open, statistically, either there would be a student outbreak that shut us back down or/and our being open would directly kill someone. That’s how this works. All decisions right now suck. I hate that my kids school is closed but I absolutely wanted that to happen because the flipside is what if her favorite teacher or that teacher’s spouse or a custodian or whoever dies. This is, as far as we know, temporary, but the results are permanent. _______ and _______ will never again have their dad. Odds are _______ simply caring for herself again would be a victory. The virus has absolutely fucked us all to varying extents, but adding more bodies to the pile in the interests of normalcy or to prove fortitude or due to economics is absolutely not the way I’d ever want to see this university go. No matter what the consequences. (And if anyone wants me to cite the anecdotes above, feel free to send a PM and I’ll do so. Everyone I know involved here would love for you to remain frustrated/inconvenienced rather than irreparably harmed.) In an average 6 month period 1 in 156 Americans will die, from any of a number of causes. And no one has died from Covid in this country from hospitals getting overwhelmed. Finally, no one is being forced to return. Being forced to do things typically happens in places like China and North Korea.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 5:46:05 GMT -5
And no one has died from Covid in this country from hospitals getting overwhelmed. This can't be right.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 7:28:40 GMT -5
And no one has died from Covid in this country from hospitals getting overwhelmed. This can't be right. Provide evidence that it isn't. I work for a large hospital network, have been involved in weekly, if not daily, Covid update meetings. There has not been one hospital in the country that has had to turn a patient away due to lack of Covid beds, or ventilators.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Aug 24, 2020 8:22:25 GMT -5
. If La Salle stayed open, statistically, either there would be a student outbreak that shut us back down or/and our being open would directly kill someone. That’s how this works. That's NOT how this works. You have zero epidemiological evidence to make this claim with the statistical absoluteness you did. That's not how science and medicine works. There simply isn't evidence to show that it will definitely happen, nor is there evidence to show it won't. We DO, however, have statistical data on transmission rates in the pediatric and young adult population, along with evidence of mask-wearing and maintaining proper social distancing preventing the spread of this disease. Also consider the mental health impact. A recently published report showed and adults from 18 to 24 years old were more likely to report experiences with suicidal ideation, substance abuse, anxiety, and depression tied to the pandemic than any other age group. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w (data tables are embedded in the report, if so interested). This is part of the risk-based calculation everyone must do. What you stated above claiming statistical certainty is the alarmist language that spreads misinformation about science. It is, unfortunately, reminiscent of the alarmist language by the administration used in the "explanation" as to why they are staying closed.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Aug 24, 2020 8:27:50 GMT -5
Provide evidence that it isn't. I work for a large hospital network, have been involved in weekly, if not daily, Covid update meetings. There has not been one hospital in the country that has had to turn a patient away due to lack of Covid beds, or ventilators. Covid-positive pneunomia patients being sent home then rushed back in via ambulance less than 12 hours later due to capacity issues happened and it happened because of caseload. I'm sure him eventually being admitted would negate him from the headcount, but capacity issues kept him from getting care until it was too late for that care to work.
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Post by jellybean on Aug 24, 2020 8:28:34 GMT -5
I feel like you’d be more at home on the St Joe’s and Duquesne message boards. The school, in my opinion, made a good decision in a lose lose situation. -1
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Aug 24, 2020 8:28:37 GMT -5
And to "prove" that, the same profile with the same symptoms right now would 100% not be sent back home.
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Post by glorydays on Aug 24, 2020 8:51:11 GMT -5
Good discussion (seriously). Joe, thanks for including Delaware in your stats.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 10:16:44 GMT -5
Provide evidence that it isn't. I work for a large hospital network, have been involved in weekly, if not daily, Covid update meetings. There has not been one hospital in the country that has had to turn a patient away due to lack of Covid beds, or ventilators. That's not what you said though. www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html"Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed."
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 10:17:01 GMT -5
Good discussion (seriously). Joe, thanks for including Delaware in your stats. Only the county that matters.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 11:26:13 GMT -5
Provide evidence that it isn't. I work for a large hospital network, have been involved in weekly, if not daily, Covid update meetings. There has not been one hospital in the country that has had to turn a patient away due to lack of Covid beds, or ventilators. Covid-positive pneunomia patients being sent home then rushed back in via ambulance less than 12 hours later due to capacity issues happened and it happened because of caseload. I'm sure him eventually being admitted would negate him from the headcount, but capacity issues kept him from getting care until it was too late for that care to work. I'd be curious to know what hospital or at least what city or town. As a physician, who has worked in ER's and taken care of patients in-hospital, who has treated Covid patients, I can just about guarantee you that patients are not sent home because of capacity issues. If a physician believes the patient needs to be admitted, the patient is admitted. If bed capacity at a particular hospital is ever an issue for any reason, the patient would be transferred to another hospital for admission. From a clinical standpoint, I'd bet the patient was originally discharged to home because their oxygen levels were fine and they didn't meet clinical criteria for admission. The unfortunate thing with this virus, though, is that some patients in or out of the hospital can go down hill rather quickly, after appearing relatively stable.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 11:29:37 GMT -5
Provide evidence that it isn't. I work for a large hospital network, have been involved in weekly, if not daily, Covid update meetings. There has not been one hospital in the country that has had to turn a patient away due to lack of Covid beds, or ventilators. That's not what you said though. www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.html"Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed." Emergency rooms have the same capacity, and perhaps even better capacity, to treat a Covid patient than even an ICU bed has. There is nothing magical about the patient "getting a bed" as an inpatient that makes them more safe. People died from the disease, not from a lack of beds.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 11:48:03 GMT -5
Emergency rooms have the same capacity, and perhaps even better capacity, to treat a Covid patient than even an ICU bed has. There is nothing magical about the patient "getting a bed" as an inpatient that makes them more safe. People died from the disease, not from a lack of beds. Stark difference between "cause" and "reason."
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 12:32:19 GMT -5
Emergency rooms have the same capacity, and perhaps even better capacity, to treat a Covid patient than even an ICU bed has. There is nothing magical about the patient "getting a bed" as an inpatient that makes them more safe. People died from the disease, not from a lack of beds. Stark difference between "cause" and "reason." No idea what you mean by this. Could you elaborate?
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 12:47:25 GMT -5
Stark difference between "cause" and "reason." No idea what you mean by this. Could you elaborate? The cause of death for everyone that died of COVID is COVID. The reason for their death was, at least in more than 0 cases, that hospital overcrowding and understaffing led to deaths that could have been prevented.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 13:12:20 GMT -5
No idea what you mean by this. Could you elaborate? The cause of death for everyone that died of COVID is COVID. The reason for their death was, at least in more than 0 cases, that hospital overcrowding and understaffing led to deaths that could have been prevented. What evidence do you have of that? I can definitely tell you, for a fact, that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. Our hospital system, just one hour outside of NYC, actually had to furlough staff --including doctors and nurses -- because, through most of the Spring, the hospitals weren't busy enough. Many hospital systems had the same problem. Believe it or not, they were less busy than normal. If you could provide a study, or even an article, that shows that overcrowding worsened mortality rates, I'd love to see it.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Aug 24, 2020 13:19:32 GMT -5
Emergency rooms have the same capacity, and perhaps even better capacity, to treat a Covid patient than even an ICU bed has. There is nothing magical about the patient "getting a bed" as an inpatient that makes them more safe. People died from the disease, not from a lack of beds. People here died from delayed treatment because others were more critical at that time. If he'd been the only Covid case at that time or if the same thing happened today rather than four months ago, he very likely survives. (I live where Seton Hall is.)
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 13:27:10 GMT -5
Emergency rooms have the same capacity, and perhaps even better capacity, to treat a Covid patient than even an ICU bed has. There is nothing magical about the patient "getting a bed" as an inpatient that makes them more safe. People died from the disease, not from a lack of beds. People here died from delayed treatment because others were more critical at that time. If he'd been the only Covid case at that time or if the same thing happened today rather than four months ago, he very likely survives. (I live where Seton Hall is.) So this person, who according to a doctor was sick enough to be admitted to a hospital, was not even permitted to stay in an emergency room, and was sent home, because a hospital didn't have room for them, and they couldn't be transported to another hospital center? In my 25 years of practicing medicine, I've never seen or heard of that happening in the U.S. Never. For any reason. Including Covid.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
Voted Most Popular Poster 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023
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Post by MisterD on Aug 24, 2020 13:30:49 GMT -5
This person had been sent home from the hospital less than 24 hours before being admitted and never returning home. Yes. If you'd like a name I can PM that and you can search what has been publicly written.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 15:10:10 GMT -5
The cause of death for everyone that died of COVID is COVID. The reason for their death was, at least in more than 0 cases, that hospital overcrowding and understaffing led to deaths that could have been prevented. What evidence do you have of that? I can definitely tell you, for a fact, that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. Doctors and nurses were coming out of retirement for coronavirus relief.
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Post by charmcityexplorer on Aug 24, 2020 18:57:27 GMT -5
The cause of death for everyone that died of COVID is COVID. The reason for their death was, at least in more than 0 cases, that hospital overcrowding and understaffing led to deaths that could have been prevented. What evidence do you have of that? I can definitely tell you, for a fact, that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. Our hospital system, just one hour outside of NYC, actually had to furlough staff --including doctors and nurses -- because, through most of the Spring, the hospitals weren't busy enough. Many hospital systems had the same problem. Believe it or not, they were less busy than normal. If you could provide a study, or even an article, that shows that overcrowding worsened mortality rates, I'd love to see it. For a fact? Check your facts. I can tell you, for a fact, that I have worked since the beginning of this pandemic with the Indian Health Service on many issues, including understaffing. As Joe points out, retirees and volunteers have been requested to assist. To be fair, staffing at many IHS hospitals has been a chronic issue, but it has been exacerbated immensely by the pandemic. I can also tell you, for a fact, that I’ve worked with the USPHS on issues related to it sending Strike Teams, due to staffing issues, to hospitals in underserved areas in the U.S. to deal with pandemic hot spots. Please tell your furloughed colleagues to contact me and I will arrange for them to put their skills to use. This will entail leaving the NYC metropolitan area for locals such as Gallup, New Mexico, Pine Ridge South Dakota, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (and I could go on and on) but to says that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. is not true.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 20:21:10 GMT -5
What evidence do you have of that? I can definitely tell you, for a fact, that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. Our hospital system, just one hour outside of NYC, actually had to furlough staff --including doctors and nurses -- because, through most of the Spring, the hospitals weren't busy enough. Many hospital systems had the same problem. Believe it or not, they were less busy than normal. If you could provide a study, or even an article, that shows that overcrowding worsened mortality rates, I'd love to see it. For a fact? Check your facts. I can tell you, for a fact, that I have worked since the beginning of this pandemic with the Indian Health Service on many issues, including understaffing. As Joe points out, retirees and volunteers have been requested to assist. To be fair, staffing at many IHS hospitals has been a chronic issue, but it has been exacerbated immensely by the pandemic. I can also tell you, for a fact, that I’ve worked with the USPHS on issues related to it sending Strike Teams, due to staffing issues, to hospitals in underserved areas in the U.S. to deal with pandemic hot spots. Please tell your furloughed colleagues to contact me and I will arrange for them to put their skills to use. This will entail leaving the NYC metropolitan area for locals such as Gallup, New Mexico, Pine Ridge South Dakota, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (and I could go on and on) but to says that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. is not true. Those areas have always been underserved, and you likely know it. It has nothing specifically to do with Covid. Those issues were there prior to Covid. They will be there after Covid is over. Until someone decides to pay physicians and healthcare providers enough to more permanently do those jobs, they will always be an issue.
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Post by big5explorer on Aug 24, 2020 20:29:40 GMT -5
What evidence do you have of that? I can definitely tell you, for a fact, that there were never any understaffing issues in hospitals in the U.S. Doctors and nurses were coming out of retirement for coronavirus relief. And good for them. But ultimately, they didn't have to.
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Post by 23won on Aug 24, 2020 20:29:46 GMT -5
I just don't know who to believe on this. A doctor's position backed by 25 years of real life experience in our region and facts and data drawn from 5,000 patients and an 11 hospital network of treatment or two basketball board moderators who majored in communications.
And then if the data presented by the Doctor isn't compelling enough, out of the blue a strawman argument emerges that historically understaffed Indian facilities in remote/stressed regions of the country cast doubt on one peripheral issue secondary to the Doctor's main point and therefore the overall important point must be debunked and rejected.
This is pretty humorous to read, actually.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Aug 24, 2020 20:50:42 GMT -5
I just don't know who to believe on this. A doctor's position backed by 25 years of real life experience in our region and facts and data drawn from 5,000 patients and an 11 hospital network of treatment or two basketball board moderators who majored in communications. And then if the data presented by the Doctor isn't compelling enough, out of the blue a strawman argument emerges that historically understaffed Indian facilities in remote/stressed regions of the country cast doubt on one peripheral issue secondary to the Doctor's main point and therefore the overall important point must be debunked and rejected. This is pretty humorous to read, actually. ^^^^^^ THIS ..... THIS IS WHY AL GORE INVENTED THE INTERNET
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Post by theneumann64 on Aug 24, 2020 21:17:03 GMT -5
I just don't know who to believe on this. A doctor's position backed by 25 years of real life experience in our region and facts and data drawn from 5,000 patients and an 11 hospital network of treatment or two basketball board moderators who majored in communications. And then if the data presented by the Doctor isn't compelling enough, out of the blue a strawman argument emerges that historically understaffed Indian facilities in remote/stressed regions of the country cast doubt on one peripheral issue secondary to the Doctor's main point and therefore the overall important point must be debunked and rejected. This is pretty humorous to read, actually. I haven’t even said anything on this thread since Friday. And all I offered was my opinion as it relates to La Salle’s opening. I didn’t cite any numbers or any of that. I don’t doubt Big5’s experience and I respect his point of view. But if we’re being fair, there are plenty of experts in both medicine and infectious disease who feel the other way. Something tells me you’ve got reasons why all those people shouldn’t be listened to though.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 24, 2020 22:05:15 GMT -5
And I was an English Writing major. Come on.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Aug 25, 2020 9:45:25 GMT -5
(this is fine dot gif)
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Aug 25, 2020 10:51:20 GMT -5
Nice cherry-pick of University of Alabama ...as their campus clearly mirrors La Salle's in size and location and is an accurate barometer of how La Salle would have fared. Meanwhile....on the Main Line.... 1 confirmed case from a commuter student since in-person classes resumed on August 17 - which would was also La Salle's start date in their original plan. www1.villanova.edu/university/return-to-campus/dashboard.html
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