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Post by big5explorer on Sept 24, 2020 12:43:22 GMT -5
The point of “shut everything down to flatten the curve” was to buy the federal government time to come up with a coordinated response. Instead we got “drink bleach, testing is bad, open by Easter.” No. That is incorrect. The "shut everything down to flatten the curve" was specifically done to protect the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. If the hospitals had been overwhelmed it would have worsened mortality rates. Show me one story from March or February where our communities or country was told we were closing businesses" until the government could come up with a coordinated response."
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 24, 2020 12:53:10 GMT -5
This thread continues to impress... Almost as good as Fauci having to re-educate Rand Paul on the very basics re: Herd Immunity this AM during a hearing... Winter is coming and the leading medical executives are holding their breath.. Early November is focus.. Not looking good as some states are already looking pretty shitty.. 14-day Moving Averages have 40 states reporting increasing infection rates from a low of just 14 at the trough (early July). And the temperature really hasn’t fallen yet around the country.. weeeeeeeeee Read this article below, then go back and watch the full exchange between Fauci and Rand Paul, and not the abbreviated one that MSNBC put out there, and you might realize that Paul actually schooled Fauci. i. Keep in mind that Rand Paul is also a physician, who got his degree from Duke. As a physician myself, I am frankly mortified that Fauci is making the argument he is in the last minute of the video that mitigation, and not some degree of herd immunity, is the reason the NY area is doing so well right now. That narrowed-minded, and I would argue naive and arguably negligent thinking, by Fauci, at this point, is enough to have me believing he needs to be removed from his position. For Fauci to argue at the very end of the video above that Paul "is the only person to think that way" (that NY has reached a degree of herd immunity) is truly sad. But don't take my word for it. Read the article from this week, from the British Medical Journal, then go back and watch the full video. www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563?fbclid=IwAR1QEgmuvuqJUqRFQP-64e2xtElrkG3isxbNg4BcNX_wAFg4yUXOlp7W1BI
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Post by theneumann64 on Sept 24, 2020 13:40:41 GMT -5
The point of “shut everything down to flatten the curve” was to buy the federal government time to come up with a coordinated response. Instead we got “drink bleach, testing is bad, open by Easter.” No. That is incorrect. The "shut everything down to flatten the curve" was specifically done to protect the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. If the hospitals had been overwhelmed it would have worsened mortality rates. Show me one story from March or February where our communities or country was told we were closing businesses" until the government could come up with a coordinated response." Yeah the idea was both. We had to flatten the curve to stay under capacity, with the idea being while we did that the government would actually be working on a plan to increase capacity, equipment, personnel, etc. it wasn’t JUST stay under the curve to not swamp hospitals. Capacity wasn’t swamped as much as we’d feared, which is a sign that what we did worked to an extent, not that we were over-reacting in the first place. The fact that we’ve still had this as a persistent problem now going on month 7 is evidence that individual and local action alone isn’t enough. You have your opinions, you’re entitled to them and you certainly have a lot of first-hand basis for your opinion.
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 24, 2020 13:51:42 GMT -5
No. That is incorrect. The "shut everything down to flatten the curve" was specifically done to protect the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. If the hospitals had been overwhelmed it would have worsened mortality rates. Show me one story from March or February where our communities or country was told we were closing businesses" until the government could come up with a coordinated response." Yeah the idea was both. We had to flatten the curve to stay under capacity, with the idea being while we did that the government would actually be working on a plan to increase capacity, equipment, personnel, etc. it wasn’t JUST stay under the curve to not swamp hospitals....... You have your opinions, you’re entitled to them and you certainly have a lot of first-hand basis for your opinion. No, that is not my opinion. That is factually the reason Americans were told to close their businesses. Again, I challenge you to provide *just one* news article from early in the pandemic during the massive shutdowns where Americans were told to close businesses until the government could mitigate the virus away. If you'd like, I can provide countless news stories and interviews from officials where Americans were sold that the shut down was to flatten the curve. This is not a "we each have our differing opinions." You are simply mis-remembering history.
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Post by theneumann64 on Sept 24, 2020 14:07:15 GMT -5
What I'm saying is that we were told to close things (which we did nowhere near on the level of other countries) because we had to stop the spread of the virus. Hospitals were going to be inundated against a virus we were in no way prepared for. We didn't have adequate PPE, testing, ventilators, or even facilities. The first 2 absolutely were the case, the 2nd two didn't become the utter nightmare scenario, but that was the fear. So yes, of course, the reason was to not overhwelm hospital capacity. The subtext, all along, was that people who were supposed to be in charge of these things would be actually working to solve the problem. My governor was on TV every day begging for supplies and people and facilities. So yes, the immediate concern was that hospital capacity would be overrun. The implied solution to that was that the government was going to do something about it. But while we're at it: "Both Kayyem, the former homeland security official, and Jha stress that extreme social distancing is a temporary measure. The aim is to keep the number of infections across the United States low while authorities ramp up sufficient hospital beds and testing capacity to pivot to a stage two strategy that sounds a lot like the "containment" effort Fauci spoke of. There would be widespread testing to identify and isolate positive cases and their contacts. South Korea has demonstrated some success with this model. www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/27/822146372/experts-say-the-u-s-needs-a-national-shutdown-asap-but-differ-on-what-comes-next
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Sept 24, 2020 16:44:00 GMT -5
‘Watch Rand Paul school Dr Fauci’ is quite the Ben Shapiro tweet and not at all what happened in that exchange. Further, when COVID-19 starts causing major eye disorders maybe I’ll consider something he has to say vs Fauci, the literal expert on infectious disease.
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 24, 2020 18:51:54 GMT -5
‘Watch Rand Paul school Dr Fauci’ is quite the Ben Shapiro tweet and not at all what happened in that exchange. Further, when COVID-19 starts causing major eye disorders maybe I’ll consider something he has to say vs Fauci, the literal expert on infectious disease. "Experts" can be wrong. And he's wrong. 1. Explain how Fauci is more correct in that exchange. 2. Explain how or where Paul is incorrect, anywhere in that exchange.
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Post by calsufan on Sept 24, 2020 19:02:23 GMT -5
‘Watch Rand Paul school Dr Fauci’ is quite the Ben Shapiro tweet and not at all what happened in that exchange. Further, when COVID-19 starts causing major eye disorders maybe I’ll consider something he has to say vs Fauci, the literal expert on infectious disease. "Experts" can be wrong. And he's wrong. 1. Explain how Fauci is more correct in that exchange. 2. Explain how or where Paul is incorrect, anywhere in that exchange. I'll flip that and ask you why you feel Paul is right and Fauci is incorrect? Yes, experts like anyone else can be wrong from time to time, but I'll take almost 50 years experience in the field of work that's relevant over an eye doctor's and radiologist's opinions in a field they know virtually nothing about. Or were they dual majors in medical school?
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Sept 24, 2020 19:37:05 GMT -5
Rand Paul was making the case that New York is doing better with Covid because of herd immunity. Since NY has an infection rate of about 22%, this is a gross miscalculation about what "herd immunity" is and Rand Paul either knows that or is an idiot.
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Post by diehardexplorer on Sept 24, 2020 20:11:12 GMT -5
"Experts" can be wrong. And he's wrong. 1. Explain how Fauci is more correct in that exchange. 2. Explain how or where Paul is incorrect, anywhere in that exchange. I'll flip that and ask you why you feel Paul is right and Fauci is incorrect? Yes, experts like anyone else can be wrong from time to time, but I'll take almost 50 years experience in the field of work that's relevant over an eye doctor's and radiologist's opinions in a field they know virtually nothing about. Or were they dual majors in medical school? watch out big5explorer, joe's bestie has jumped into the fray to defend his bud. god forbid you don't agree with them.
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Post by diehardexplorer on Sept 24, 2020 20:14:29 GMT -5
‘Watch Rand Paul school Dr Fauci’ is quite the Ben Shapiro tweet and not at all what happened in that exchange. Further, when COVID-19 starts causing major eye disorders maybe I’ll consider something he has to say vs Fauci, the literal expert on infectious disease. yeah, i guess we should all follow chris hayes instead because he's not biased at all.
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Post by calsufan on Sept 24, 2020 20:26:36 GMT -5
I'll flip that and ask you why you feel Paul is right and Fauci is incorrect? Yes, experts like anyone else can be wrong from time to time, but I'll take almost 50 years experience in the field of work that's relevant over an eye doctor's and radiologist's opinions in a field they know virtually nothing about. Or were they dual majors in medical school? watch out big5explorer, joe's bestie has jumped into the fray to defend his bud. god forbid you don't agree with them. You're not a lil creepy now are you? And since you're quoting 1801, does that make you his bestie? The funny thing is it's lost on you. Just like 1801 you accuse the other person and then turn around and do the same damn thing. Smh.
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Sept 24, 2020 21:07:13 GMT -5
It's also a ridiculous concept. We've never met and I don't know you at all.
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Post by hykos1045 on Sept 24, 2020 21:08:33 GMT -5
We're all friends here.
But did I watch the same video? Fauci went toe to toe with a senator, and came out unscathed: 6:22 - You were not listening... If you believe that 22% is herd immunity, I believe you're alone in that!
*The senator interjects some nonsense about preexisting immunity of a third of the public getting you into the range of about two thirds and drops the mic, clearly trying to end the embarrassment for he's in way over his head. Incidentally, 22 + 33 = 55 which still falls way short of herd immunity, even if the assumptions are true.*
Fauci: "I'd like to talk to you about that also, because there was a study that came out that preexisting immunities to the coronaviruses ie. the common cold do not coreact with the COVID-19."
The senator has nothing to say to that. Because he was schooled. He went in with a different agenda, but was unable to support with facts. He really just comes across as testy and ignorant. You don't need an msnbc filter to see that there was an underlying political agenda, and no basis of fact.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Sept 25, 2020 6:59:18 GMT -5
Wonder what my eye doctor thinks about Covid and herd immunity. I'll post if/when I get a response from her.
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Post by victoriouslasalle on Sept 25, 2020 8:14:29 GMT -5
My take- The herd immunity ("mentality", per our president) may be a natural scientific phenomena (though not guaranteed to happen) but possible with some pathogens like corona. And according to the science I am reading it would likely require at least 2 million deaths in the USA should the level of cases be allowed to elevate to the level for this to possibly happen, to test it out.
Knowing Rand Paul, his rigid ideology and value system, I am not surprise that he would try to advance this as an acceptable approach. I sure hope not. Smacks of social Darwinism to me. If this is where he or others are coming from, let it wash through the population so we can see if we can gain herd immunity, this is immoral and cruel to me and against my religious values. IMO, legitimizing it as an approach also seems to be an organized effort by some at this time to justify the half-assed way our real medical expert's (like Fauci) wise guidance has been poorly implemented in the USA.
The "herd mentality" approach to corona seems more like a plan dreamed up by a bunch of science undergrad students who have not had their ethics courses yet, perhaps slept through their religion classes....what they dreamed up after smoking several bowls of weed, a "herb mentality."
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Sept 25, 2020 8:20:34 GMT -5
Doesn't advocating herd immunity also go against the fact that we don't yet know about potential mutations or whether/how soon reinfection is possible?
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angry04
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Post by angry04 on Sept 25, 2020 9:26:43 GMT -5
As a resident of Centre County, I'm curious as to what your point here is other then demonstrating that you can take a screenshot from your phone (my 10 year old nephew can do that with his older brother's phone too)? Are you informed enough about the situation here to make an intelligent assessment or are you just being a Karen and lazily rifling off graphics with no context to support a false narrative that there's uncontrollable "outbreak" occurring here?
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 25, 2020 9:44:16 GMT -5
I'll try and answer some of the questions or thoughts above in a single post here.
Where I am critical of Fauci is in his criticism of Paul is that he seems overly defensive and somewhat narrow-sighted. For Fauci to contend that the reason the greater NYC area is doing so well is due to their mitigation efforts, and not something like a herd immunity, seems naive. NYC is more open to business, interaction, and commerce now -- by far -- than when they were getting completely slammed by the virus. While I'm not contending that mitigation doesn't play some role in controlling the virus, it simply cannot be the primary reason NY is relatively quiet, especially for per-capita deaths, over the last several months. In my opinion, there can only be two reasons:
1. The virus has "saturated" that community already. (Most likely) 2. The virus has some seasonality, and the summer months have helped contain it. (Very likely)
If one reads the article I posted above, there is a very decent amount of fairly good research over the last few months showing that T-cell immunity probably plays some roll in community immunity. For Fauci to seem to ignore it and contend that Rand Paul is the only person who believes that is simply not true. And (this is important) even if Rand Paul was the only person to believe it, it doesn't mean it isn't true. As a scientist, Fauci should never use that as a scientific reason something isn't true. But, the fact is, there is quickly some growing support and growing bodies of data showing that Paul is likely correct -- that some degree of herd immunity is setting into places.
Finally, let me review the concept of herd immunity. Because the media (and even experts) do a terrible job understanding and explaining herd immunity. It is a misconception that the virus needs to hit 70% of the population for a community to have herd immunity. In fact, different diseases need different thresholds to get to herd immunity. I won't get into details as to why, but measles for example is about 95%. Polio, about 80%. Influenza, about 30-40%. Then, when one factors in the possibility that (for whatever the reason) some of us probably carry some degree of prior immunity to Covid, we VERY likely do not need to get to 70% of people getting Covid, before it can be contained. If the T-cell immunity model is correct, we may only need to get to 10-20% of people actually getting sick before the virus fades.
Also, if it is true that there is some degree of prior immunity in a large proportion of the population, even if there is seasonality to the virus, what we may begin to see as the winter comes, is another wave of new cases, but not nearly as many people getting sick. I believe we are starting to see this in Europe, and will see it here in the next few months. In my opinion, with how contagious this virus has been, with how quickly it inundates communities within weeks --even with mitigation -- it is really really likely that nearly all of us have been exposed a bit to some degree. I do think the virus has already taken-out many of the most vulnerable in many of the communities of the U.S., and It is likely we've seen the worst of this.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Sept 25, 2020 9:59:29 GMT -5
Without getting into the weeds there (and without even focusing on the fact that Paul's Covid beliefs somehow perfectly align with his greater political beliefs), you really don't get why an immunologist didn't have a lot of patience for an ophthalmologist when discussing a pandemic?
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 25, 2020 10:15:25 GMT -5
Without getting into the weeds there (and without even focusing on the fact that Paul's Covid beliefs somehow perfectly align with his greater political beliefs), you really don't get why an immunologist didn't have a lot of patience for an ophthalmologist when discussing a pandemic? That is correct. I don't understand that. Because all of us physicians are cross-trained in other specialties. All of us have had a course in immunology, all of have likely done rotations in immunology during residency. And, you might be surprised to know, that there are a boatload of eye conditions that are related to immunological diseases. So, eye doctors in particular are generally very up to date on immunology.
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Post by theneumann64 on Sept 25, 2020 10:27:08 GMT -5
From what I've read (and I'm admittedly dumb unless we're talking about one of the 5 things in the world I know about), it seems like there are some people putting forth that herd immunity for Covid has a threshold as low as Paul suggested (like in that journal you linked to), but there are also plenty of doctors, scientists, researchers, and epidemiologists who still believe the number is still fairly high. And it seems like comparing herd immunity that's largely vaccine-driven, versus herd immunity that occurs just through community transmission are much different things.
I actually agree with you that the worst is probably over, but the worst was also unacceptably terrible, and a shit load of people died who didn't have to.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Sept 25, 2020 11:09:49 GMT -5
That is correct. I don't understand that. Because all of us physicians are cross-trained in other specialties. All of us have had a course in immunology, all of have likely done rotations in immunology during residency. And, you might be surprised to know, that there are a boatload of eye conditions that are related to immunological diseases. So, eye doctors in particular are generally very up to date on immunology. Then I guess we have to reach back to my parenthetical on whether one believes Paul's medical background is driving his political stance or vice versa.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Sept 25, 2020 11:24:34 GMT -5
(And to be clear, I don't think that's unique to Paul or his party. There's a reason M4A can poll above 75% among Democrats and still not be a non-starter for most of the primary field.)
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Post by explorerman on Sept 25, 2020 11:38:23 GMT -5
This thread continues to impress... Almost as good as Fauci having to re-educate Rand Paul on the very basics re: Herd Immunity this AM during a hearing... Winter is coming and the leading medical executives are holding their breath.. Early November is focus.. Not looking good as some states are already looking pretty shitty.. 14-day Moving Averages have 40 states reporting increasing infection rates from a low of just 14 at the trough (early July). And the temperature really hasn’t fallen yet around the country.. weeeeeeeeee Read this article below, then go back and watch the full exchange between Fauci and Rand Paul, and not the abbreviated one that MSNBC put out there, and you might realize that Paul actually schooled Fauci. i. Keep in mind that Rand Paul is also a physician, who got his degree from Duke. As a physician myself, I am frankly mortified that Fauci is making the argument he is in the last minute of the video that mitigation, and not some degree of herd immunity, is the reason the NY area is doing so well right now. That narrowed-minded, and I would argue naive and arguably negligent thinking, by Fauci, at this point, is enough to have me believing he needs to be removed from his position. For Fauci to argue at the very end of the video above that Paul "is the only person to think that way" (that NY has reached a degree of herd immunity) is truly sad. But don't take my word for it. Read the article from this week, from the British Medical Journal, then go back and watch the full video. www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563?fbclid=IwAR1QEgmuvuqJUqRFQP-64e2xtElrkG3isxbNg4BcNX_wAFg4yUXOlp7W1BIAhhh it might surprise you but I was watching live... You can do better big5explorer.. A lot better than just to assume that I get my info from MSNBC... You discredit yourself greatly.. I am in the business of being correct.. Not right or left.. Or I don’t have the lucky success I have had so far playing this game.. But if you want to I can play... Rand Paul is a clown that Republicans don’t even like... The smugness that he talks just pisses people off especially when you consider he just rode daddy’s coattails and is a trust fund baby living in his fancy gated community... Speaking on that gated community, who gets his ass kicked by his neighbor? An asshole does... He won over even more people when he solely blocked 9/11 Victim Compensation bill a couple years ago.. Going further what I don’t have time for is misinformation/disinformation or incorrect interpretations of facts... If you really thought Fauci was schooled by Senator Paul then I can’t help you.. The Senator quoted and re-tweeted yesterday a paper thinking that it proved his point.. I guess his aide (because we know he sure as hell) didn’t read the paper the Senator referenced out because well... It says the opposite of Senator Rand Paul implies.. Senator Paul has for sometime, believed that NYC has hit Herd Immunity and that is the reason for the very LOW positivity rate. As a result, everything should go back to normal.. NYC is at 22% HI, the paper he quotes said something much much higher in order to get to Herd Immunity (43%). I know that is only off by 20% but 20% is a crapload... You really do not want to get there that means you have a whole other wave again and a lot more pain and suffering.. A lot of people had been waiting for his exchange because it has been going back and forth for sometime (largely Senator Paul on his twitter feed). For everyone’s pleasure, the piece that Senator Paul used as his “evidence”: science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846.full Look if you are going to use him a source backing up your angle then you should at least know something about the source. The source impacts the message. I believe I remember you earlier from the chain.. You are a doctor at a rural medical practice chain? Then you know that Senator Paul is an ophthalmologist, epidemiology is not something that you would remotely come close to in study or practice..
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Post by explorerman on Sept 25, 2020 11:43:21 GMT -5
Without getting into the weeds there (and without even focusing on the fact that Paul's Covid beliefs somehow perfectly align with his greater political beliefs), you really don't get why an immunologist didn't have a lot of patience for an ophthalmologist when discussing a pandemic? That is correct. I don't understand that. Because all of us physicians are cross-trained in other specialties. All of us have had a course in immunology, all of have likely done rotations in immunology during residency. And, you might be surprised to know, that there are a boatload of eye conditions that are related to immunological diseases. So, eye doctors in particular are generally very up to date on immunology. Ohhh just saw this one... Sorry I go post by post but I see you are still battling.. I regret to inform you Senator Paul has no formal background or “cross study” in epidemiology.. Great eye doc though..
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Post by explorerman on Sept 25, 2020 11:58:48 GMT -5
Rand Paul was making the case that New York is doing better with Covid because of herd immunity. Since NY has an infection rate of about 22%, this is a gross miscalculation about what "herd immunity" is and Rand Paul either knows that or is an idiot. Oh darn.. I just seeing all these.. I could have saved time trying to educate a fellow La Salle alum
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Post by diehardexplorer on Sept 25, 2020 14:39:18 GMT -5
Read this article below, then go back and watch the full exchange between Fauci and Rand Paul, and not the abbreviated one that MSNBC put out there, and you might realize that Paul actually schooled Fauci. i. Keep in mind that Rand Paul is also a physician, who got his degree from Duke. As a physician myself, I am frankly mortified that Fauci is making the argument he is in the last minute of the video that mitigation, and not some degree of herd immunity, is the reason the NY area is doing so well right now. That narrowed-minded, and I would argue naive and arguably negligent thinking, by Fauci, at this point, is enough to have me believing he needs to be removed from his position. For Fauci to argue at the very end of the video above that Paul "is the only person to think that way" (that NY has reached a degree of herd immunity) is truly sad. But don't take my word for it. Read the article from this week, from the British Medical Journal, then go back and watch the full video. www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563?fbclid=IwAR1QEgmuvuqJUqRFQP-64e2xtElrkG3isxbNg4BcNX_wAFg4yUXOlp7W1BIAhhh it might surprise you but I was watching live... You can do better big5explorer.. A lot better than just to assume that I get my info from MSNBC... You discredit yourself greatly.. I am in the business of being correct.. Not right or left.. Or I don’t have the lucky success I have had so far playing this game.. But if you want to I can play... Rand Paul is a clown that Republicans don’t even like... The smugness that he talks just pisses people off "i am in the business of being correct". funniest thing i've read in a long time. can't imagine you and glitterbro #2 being in the same room. it would be a deathmatch to see who wins "the smartest guy in the room" award. loved the quote about smugness. irony.
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 26, 2020 12:58:06 GMT -5
Rand Paul was making the case that New York is doing better with Covid because of herd immunity. Since NY has an infection rate of about 22%, this is a gross miscalculation about what "herd immunity" is and Rand Paul either knows that or is an idiot. Oh darn.. I just seeing all these.. I could have saved time trying to educate a fellow La Salle alum I must apologize. I didn't realize your business was in "being correct." Should I assume you are also a physician since you seem so aware of how physicians are trained, or what ophthalmologists may or may not know about immunology? Ophthalmologists, in general, are among the brightest of physicians, and gaining a spot in ophthalmology residency programs is highly competitive. I also likely don't have to explain how difficult getting into Duke medical school might be. And, you might be surprised to learn these "eye doctors" have a large amount of training in infectious disease and immunology, as they see countless eye conditions caused infections as well as immune diseases. So, to disparage Rand Paul as ill-informed, or to laud Fauci just because he is labeled as an "expert" is unfair. I will stop there defending Rand Paul. But I will defend my own credentials, which you seem to also have slighted. I'm not just some "country-doctor." I've been dual borded in family medicine. I've been teaching medical students and residents for over 20 years. I also have a job reviewing more medical journal articles in a week than some "experts" will read in a year. And, though I still think someone made a mistake in doing so, I've been previously named "Physician of the Year" by our rather large healthcare system. Are there other credentials or rubber-stamped "expert" credentials that I, or someone like Dr. Paul, should have to even question a Dr Fauci? Below, I will attach some additional medical research out this week that directly refutes Fauci's argument in that video. I do find it comical that the media will make the headline,"Less than 10% of U.S. has immunity." Why not address the positive, and arguably more meaningful findings of this study....that was done in JULY -- 2 months ago? www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88827The important finding of this study is that 25% of the Northeast had antibodies. And 34% of NY State had antibodies. And that isn't even measuring the innate T-cell immunity some people may already have. And so, in my country-bumpkin-medical-opinion, because NY and the Northeast's numbers are likely even better going into October, it will be highly unlikely for the Northeast or NY to see a Covid wave nearly as severe as the first one. And, even if they see a second wave, the mortality rate should be markedly lower.
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Post by big5explorer on Sept 26, 2020 13:33:42 GMT -5
Also, for those interested, or for those who don't believe we can get to "herd immunity," here is a study showing Tokyo is likely through the worst of this virus: "The seropositivity rate increased from 5.8% at the beginning of the study to an unexpectedly high 46.8 % by the end of the summer." www.news-medical.net/news/20200924/Tokyo-citizens-may-have-developed-COVID-19-herd-immunity-say-researchers.aspxIn my opinion, what we are likely to see over the winter, even if we are unable to come up with a vaccine, is that major cites will approach herd immunity first. And, in doing so, they are very unlikely to be crushed by massive fatalities. This is more evidence that the worst is over for places like NYC.
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