Best Case Scenario

[coqui900]

So, we know what the worst case scenario is.

But I am a positive person (except when wracked with social anxiety issues). What is our absolute best case scenario?

Say that we end up winning the A-10 AND also win the tournament. Could we end up as a 6 seed with a game in Philly?

[luhoopsfan]

If we win both the Regular Season AND A10 tourney? That's quite possible. I would think we would end up with as good as a seed as Butler in that scenario and they would fall from a 4 seed to a 5 or 6 seed

I'll tell you what's crazy - go through the GAMER projections on realtime RPI and look at the win totals. I came up with this list after tweaking it for us to pull out the victory in Olean next week and everything else going according to their projections.

TEAM WINS
BUTLER 11
LSU 11
VCU 10
SLU 10
CHARL 9
XU 9
TU 9
UMASS 9
RICH 9
SJU 8
GW 8
DAY 8
SBU 6
DUQ 5
URI 4
FOR 2

In that scenario, we would end up with the title as a result of our victory of Butler. Problem is, when you go through all the projections, every team has most of their games being decided by 5 or fewer points. There are going to be literally thousands of combinations and permutations for the league's standings this year. I would love for this scenario to be where we wind up. First place in A10 reg season will pretty much guarantee the NCAA bid, I think the committee would put as much weight on that as winning a tournament in our league.

[MisterD]

You could use confidence intervals, like a projected 3 point win is 55%, 5 points is 60% and so on then assign fractional wins.

(I know Pomeroy does the % but I'm not sure how he initially assigns the % to the spread.)

[lwc4591]

Best case is probably 11-5 with a 2nd or 3rd place finish and if we go 1-1 in A10 Tourny we would finish 22-9 and probably end up with a 10 seed in Big Dance. Every win above 22 gets us 2 seeds higher. If we collapse which I simply don't see happening we end 9-7 and go 0-1 in A10 Tourny we would finish 19-11 and be first four out. With our RPI I beleive 20 wins is our bottom number for making NCAA Tournament. My best guess is we end up with 22 or 23 wins entering the tourny with a 9 or 10 seed.

[Deleted]

Best case and best guess are two different things.

Best case is 12-4 and a complete three game sweep in Brooklyn to get to 25 wins. We have already beaten 1 and 2, so there is no reason to rule out this possibility. Even Duquesne made it to the finals one year, and Bonnies won it last year. This team is as good or better than both of those teams were. (The competition has been elevated.)

Best guess is 10-6 or 11-5, followed by getting it done in Brooklyn for a few days by redeeming ourselves against the likes of UMass and Charlotte, then dropping a semifinal or final game vs. St Louis so that we have to wait by the phone to get the call, which we will, with 22+ wins.

[scarletexplorer]

Agree with Hykos to an extent.

My best case would be 11-5, with two games in the A-10 Tourney. Puts us at 23 wins.

My best guess: I still see 10-6 in the regular season, with losses at Temple, St. Louis and (yes) St. Bonaventure. Pick up a game in the tournament, gives us 21 wins. Going to be tight.

[ltrain38]

I sort of expect 11-5 at this point. I think we will beat Bona and one of SJU and Temple. I'm really confident right now. My best case scenario involves somehow sweeping the Big 5.

[explorerman]

Looks like a couple teams are coming back to us... Wichita State with the bad 200+ RPI loss to Southern Illinois tonight

[luhoopsfan]

At thesis point we don't really need any help from other teams. Our guys control their destiny and unless there's a sudden surge of teams beating Top 25 opponents continuing to win will keep the team in the dance.

[mikesmd77]

I'll echo G's quote from earlier in the year that he can't remember a time a team won the big five and wasn't dancing - so my best case is win the Big Five. Put a notch on the banner, give this team something to really be remembered for regardless of how we fare in whatever postseason tournament we are in - and pretty much guarantee we are dancing.

And while I agree we do control our own destiny, teams ahead of losing can help our seeding, so I'm still rooting heavy for underdogs!

[Deleted]

I think only two teams have pulled it off, with an outright championship (no splits) and did not qualify for the NCAA. Even tying for the title has resulted in mostly NCAA teams, at least one a year, plus a few NIT teams.