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Post by explorer88 on Feb 27, 2020 10:37:36 GMT -5
This time next year will either be a love fest or firestorm with Ash.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 27, 2020 10:56:44 GMT -5
This time next year will either be a love fest or firestorm with Ash. I don't disagree. If we have the same or worse record next year and the freshmen that are then sophs all struggle then I'll be pretty concerned. (Caveat: barring significant injuries)
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Post by 23won on Feb 27, 2020 11:23:51 GMT -5
Cal, I think you have a big assumption problem that is affecting your conclusion. The team makeup is pretty simple. You have Ed and Jared for the 5 and the remaining 4 consist of Deas, Saul, Beatty and Spencer (the “Vets”) versus the 4 Frosh. Please show me statistically where the Vets are inconsistent? I don’t think they are. I think their stats are consistently better than the frosh but they are not getting enough run to optimize their flow in the game and effectiveness. Look at how we played last year 0-10 before Saul rejoined the team. There is a lesson there I think the frosh are regressing as the season goes on. You know they can “develop” over the summer. Playing 24 minutes when you are not ready doesn’t ensure development. If they were struggling on O but were absolute lock down beasts on D I could see giving some slack but that is not the case. I already showed Rays and Hikims analytics last week which illustrated they are improving and have consistently gotten better. A bad game against Davidson doesn't change that. Kenney and Stone had some injury issues but Kenney posted some strong games against SJU, GW and Richmond. He posted better analytics than Deas and Phiri in all of those games. Deas hasn't posted a +BPM and an even average ORTG in over a month. I attached Deas analytics for every game since the beginning of January below. He has regressed and shown he isn't reliable. I'm not trying to dump on the guy, he's a good rotational player but he shouldn't be playing over our freshmen at this stage. For some more context, currently, Beatty, Spencer and Croswell are ranked in the top 50 A10 players. At the beginning of the season only Croswell was there. For context, most A10 teams have between 3-5. Dayton, for example has 5. Oh and the Hawks...1. For now, while I'm not condoning blindly supporting Howard or not criticizing him, you just have to give him time to see his plan through. The end of next season is going to give us a very good idea if his plan is working. I think you're getting stuck on the analytics. I've seen the frosh play a lot of minutes. But for an occasional breakout game by Kenney or Hikim (but not both), the four have been unable to score in A10 play. You can't win unless you score more than the opponent. Is there a role for these guys now - of course, but I think we're better off letting the 4 vets get runs. We'd be better off with Beatty and Spencer getting about 30 minutes and Deas and Phiri at least 25 minutes. In fact, your Deas analytics support this. In the top chart, when he gets minutes and doesn't have to look over his shoulder for the hook, he does well - 13 ppg in 28 mpg (7 games, excluding the VCU game where he ad major flu issue). This is .46 pts/ minute played. In the bottom chart, he averages 4.7 minutes and 17 mpg. This is .27 pts/ minute played. Ash has been splitting minutes around 20 mpg around the 8 of them. The mystery and this debate could be solved by having Ash start the game playing the 4 vets and Ed for 5 minutes (the best 5 IMO) -- you then capture the plus minus. Then go 4 frosh and Jared for 5 and do the same. Then split Jared and ED 2.5 minutes each with the 4 vets, then the 4 frosh and see what happens. Alternate in the 2H and compare results. I'd actually like to see that.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 27, 2020 11:33:43 GMT -5
23, neither Phiri or Deas is going to move the needle. They have had 4 years to show what they can do and both are very inconsistent and limited in impacting games against good teams. Why not let the younger kids get those minutes and help them gain experience if you truly believe they are the future of the program?
If they are as good as everyone thinks they are it make no sense to me to limit their growth in sake of Saul or Shaggy playing. Those guys are not going to do much to help our season improve the rest of this year but those freshmen would benefit if they are our future squad.
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Post by a10champion15 on Feb 27, 2020 12:28:16 GMT -5
This time next year will either be a love fest or firestorm with Ash. I don't disagree. If we have the same or worse record next year and the freshmen that are then sophs all struggle then I'll be pretty concerned. (Caveat: barring significant injuries) Exactly
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 27, 2020 12:48:26 GMT -5
I can't imagine going undefeated so lets pencil the board in for "firestorm".
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Post by a10champion15 on Feb 27, 2020 13:46:24 GMT -5
I can't imagine going undefeated so lets pencil the board in for "firestorm". You already know the NCAA tournament is going to be some posters realistic expectations next year.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 27, 2020 15:37:45 GMT -5
Oh, I'm positive we can go back and find "NIT by year 3, tournament soon after" or something.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 27, 2020 16:57:41 GMT -5
I can't imagine going undefeated so lets pencil the board in for "firestorm".
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Post by vital on Feb 27, 2020 18:17:21 GMT -5
Cal, I think you have a big assumption problem that is affecting your conclusion. The team makeup is pretty simple. You have Ed and Jared for the 5 and the remaining 4 consist of Deas, Saul, Beatty and Spencer (the “Vets”) versus the 4 Frosh. Please show me statistically where the Vets are inconsistent? I don’t think they are. I think their stats are consistently better than the frosh but they are not getting enough run to optimize their flow in the game and effectiveness. Look at how we played last year 0-10 before Saul rejoined the team. There is a lesson there I think the frosh are regressing as the season goes on. You know they can “develop” over the summer. Playing 24 minutes when you are not ready doesn’t ensure development. If they were struggling on O but were absolute lock down beasts on D I could see giving some slack but that is not the case. Exactly...Well said
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 27, 2020 21:15:30 GMT -5
Oh, I'm positive we can go back and find "NIT by year 3, tournament soon after" or something. I freely admit I was of this mindset. I revised it upward to NIT by year 4 after watching what's been happening this year. I feel free to modify this up again next year if we are sub 500 in league play and trending toward the PIG
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Post by JoeFedorowicz on Feb 28, 2020 8:32:15 GMT -5
Oh, I'm positive we can go back and find "NIT by year 3, tournament soon after" or something. I freely admit I was of this mindset. I revised it upward to NIT by year 4 after watching what's been happening this year. I feel free to modify this up again next year if we are sub 500 in league play and trending toward the PIG I think it's safe to say that if the team isn't sniffing (defined however you'd like) NIT by year 4 then we're talking about possibly moving on. No more decade-long tenures without results. A caveat here is a small extension if a renovation is getting done.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 28, 2020 8:56:32 GMT -5
The post-Calipari UMass plan. Not sure that's worked out too well.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 28, 2020 8:59:48 GMT -5
Fuller answer: I can't see moving on, at this level, after 4 or 5 years unless its a complete disaster. The A-10 wins with either fluke superstars or with strong rosters and Year 4 means Howard's 1st class is juniors. Its just not enough time to show anything.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 28, 2020 9:18:42 GMT -5
Fuller answer: I can't see moving on, at this level, after 4 or 5 years unless its a complete disaster. The A-10 wins with either fluke superstars or with strong rosters and Year 4 means Howard's 1st class is juniors. Its just not enough time to show anything. I don't know that I would move on unless it was a complete disaster like you said, but I disagree about it's just not enough time to show anything after his first class is juniors. By the end of their junior year that class should be showing something if they are good recruits. It also means his second class would be sophomores and we should see some development from them as well. If we're still treading water after 4 years with similar records (hovering below or at .500), then it's fair to question if he has "it".
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 28, 2020 9:20:38 GMT -5
I didn’t have a ton of time to dig into it and only had time to review one player but my “inconsistency” point is being misunderstood I think. Being a senior doesn’t mean you are consistent. Being a freshman doesn’t mean you are inconsistent. My point was if both players are inconsistent, the value as a coach is in allowing the freshman to play even when inconsistent to see if the inconsistency can wear off.
Deas is as likely to shoot below 15% in a game (5 times) as he is likely to shoot above 51% (5 times). That much of a spread is not consistent. He’s had half his games above and below 33% and not by shooting 3-for-9 every night where you could know what to expect from him.
The team’s collective struggles on offense for long stretches of games is a result of inconsistency with shooting the ball, being streaky. Awesome when they are on and absolutely horrific when they are off. Unfortunately they have very little to show in between extremes. Those horrible stretches lead to 20 point deficit too often.
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 28, 2020 9:38:59 GMT -5
I don't know that I would move on unless it was a complete disaster like you said, but I disagree about it's just not enough time to show anything after his first class is juniors. By the end of their junior year that class should be showing something if they are good recruits. It also means his second class would be sophomores and we should see some development from them as well. If we're still treading water after 4 years with similar records (hovering below or at .500), then it's fair to question if he has "it". I think we agree. The players should be showing something but that doesn't mean getting those 2 extra wins to NIT level is a success and not getting it is a failure. Its still the build.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 28, 2020 10:05:24 GMT -5
Next year has to be winning record and better wins than we have this year assuming our players are healthy next year for me.
I also have to have a tangible feeing we are ascending to some degree: We will know this time next year about Ash’s recruiting ability.
Sorry, I would not keep him past his current contract if he doesn’t have a NIT bid during his initial contract but I don’t necessarily need one next year.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Feb 28, 2020 10:46:55 GMT -5
Next year has to be winning record and better wins than we have this year assuming our players are healthy next year for me. We can schedule cupcakes again and have a winning record. I want a winning A10 record where we finish in the top half, have games where we aren't going into 20-point deficit, not be in the PIG, and win a couple of A10 tourney games.
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 28, 2020 10:58:10 GMT -5
Next year has to be winning record and better wins than we have this year assuming our players are healthy next year for me. We can schedule cupcakes again and have a winning record. I want a winning A10 record where we finish in the top half, have games where we aren't going into 20-point deficit, not be in the PIG, and win a couple of A10 tourney games. Fair points. A little too in depth as I am just conveying very high level performance but I understand what you a asking for:
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Feb 28, 2020 11:54:33 GMT -5
One thing I'm greatly looking forward to is an honest interview with Kenny Johnson once he moves on about the challenges of recruiting here.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 28, 2020 12:35:11 GMT -5
One thing I'm greatly looking forward to is an honest interview with Kenny Johnson once he moves on about the challenges of recruiting here. "It was that god damn Explorer Town board. It just killed us! Oh and no seats behind the basket hurt us as well."
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