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Post by explorer88 on Jan 31, 2013 9:09:29 GMT -5
I think the GW game is a must win. If we lose I think our NCAA hopes are done. Anyone else feel the same or am I over-reacting?
My concern is this team is just going to lose more games with tough games against Temple/St. Louis/ SJU upcoming. To lose two games this week with the possibility of going 0-3 or 1-2 during that stretch would be killer.
I would have felt much better sweeping this week heading into the final portion of the schedule. If we walk away 0-2 it could be devastating to our NCAA chances.
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Post by scarletexplorer on Jan 31, 2013 9:40:43 GMT -5
I agree that one of the GW games is a must win. I think we can split them and be okay so long as we pick up 6-7 games in the aggregate. It's going to be hard to beat them twice, and even if we win this weekend's game, the second game will be even harder if they figure us out.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 31, 2013 9:49:01 GMT -5
I agree that one of the GW games is a must win. I think we can split them and be okay so long as we pick up 6-7 games in the aggregate. It's going to be hard to beat them twice, and even if we win this weekend's game, the second game will be even harder if they figure us out. Where do you see the 6-7 wins in the aggregate? |
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jan 31, 2013 9:53:16 GMT -5
I think you're overreacting simply because losing to GW then running the regular season table puts us in great shape. "Must win" is really over/misused.
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Post by lasalle89 on Jan 31, 2013 9:53:24 GMT -5
I don't know the math and the RPI like you guys do. I do know heart and mental toughness. I liked what G said before the game that this season is far from over. He mentioned his Chicago Bears being 7-1 and not making the playoffs. He mentioned our fast start last year. He mentioned a bunch of A-10 last year that were real good and faded. He said it was a tough week mentally. Physically and emotionally for these kids. This is uncharted territory. We are not use to playing at a high level against top competition day in and day out. G is saying and doing all the right things. Ramon is saying all the right things. This is going to. E a tough stretch but we have proven we can win at home and on the road. We are going to have to come up big and go on another run to make up for some losses. When G does his press conference and drapes both arms over the chairs besides him that is a sign of confident man. He believes in himself. The kids believe in him. Now it's up to them to do it. Also doesn't the committee put se stock into how you are playing late in the season. We got to finish strong. AND win at least 2 in the A10 tournament.
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Post by scarletexplorer on Jan 31, 2013 9:59:08 GMT -5
I agree that one of the GW games is a must win. I think we can split them and be okay so long as we pick up 6-7 games in the aggregate. It's going to be hard to beat them twice, and even if we win this weekend's game, the second game will be even harder if they figure us out. Where do you see the 6-7 wins in the aggregate? Frankly, I don't, which is why I think we're NIT bound unless we have a great showing in the A-10 Tournament. All I'm saying is that we need to hit 6-7 wins at least if we want to keep talking NCAA, and at least one of those wins needs to come out of our two games against GW. |
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 31, 2013 10:00:14 GMT -5
I think you're overreacting simply because losing to GW then running the regular season table puts us in great shape. "Must win" is really over/misused. We are not running the table. That is just not going to happen. I may be overreacting but that isn't the reason. |
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 31, 2013 10:01:00 GMT -5
Where do you see the 6-7 wins in the aggregate? Frankly, I don't, which is why I think we're NIT bound unless we have a great showing in the A-10 Tournament. All I'm saying is that we need to hit 6-7 wins at least if we want to keep talking NCAA, and at least one of those wins needs to come out of our two games against GW. Gotcha ya. |
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Post by scarletexplorer on Jan 31, 2013 10:02:56 GMT -5
I think you're overreacting simply because losing to GW then running the regular season table puts us in great shape. "Must win" is really over/misused. We are not running the table. That is just not going to happen. I may be overreacting but that isn't the reason. Agreed. Two matchups against GW; chances are we split. Bonaventure is in Olean, not an easy game. Temple and Joe's will be loaded for bear. St. Louis won't be a pushover either, despite their struggles. If I had to pick "locks" (and as we have seen, nothing is ever a lock) I would say only URI, Duquesne and Fordham. That's three wins, and we need a lot more than that. |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 31, 2013 10:25:47 GMT -5
it's a little over reacting. If I told you coming into the 4 game stretch of Xavier, Butler, VCU and UMass I guaranteed a 2-2 record, would you prefer to beat Butler and VCU or Butler and UMass? I expect you would take the option of beating Butler and VCU.
The loss stings, especially because you can see so many avenues to how they could have won that game, but that's where I see the hope and reason for optimisim. If the Petersen, Mills, Garland trio shoots 35% instead of 25% last night, they win that game. If Zack holds onto that rebound instead of getting the jump ball, they win that game. If they don't fall asleep on that last drive by Williams, they win that game. If anyone other than Wright takes that last shot they (might) win that game.
My point is, they're too good to assume the worst the rest of the way. win the rest of the home games and pull out another unlikely road win and everything is fine. And don't say there's no way they win @ (SBU, TU, SLU) because I will point to the VCU game.
I agree from a perception standpoint, however, GW is a must win in order to keep the fans happy and for people to look and say hey, UMass is a bubble NCAA team and they squeaked out a tough win at La Salle who was coming off back to back monster wins.
....If only Tyreek hadn't gotten sick.......
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Jan 31, 2013 10:35:50 GMT -5
We are not running the table. That is just not going to happen. I may be overreacting but that isn't the reason. I don't think we are either but, until that's necessity, there are no must wins. |
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Post by scarletexplorer on Jan 31, 2013 10:42:51 GMT -5
I think URI, Fordham, and Duquesne are "must wins", judging by the difficulty of the other six games. I can understand if we falter against Joe's/GW/Temple/SL/SB.
I'll find it harder to swallow if we drop against URI/FU/DU.
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 31, 2013 10:53:21 GMT -5
GW (2), Bonnies, Rhodie, Dukes, Fordham. Need to go 5-1
Temple, Joe, STL.. Need to go 2-1
Finish up 11-5, we're in. But that's a tall order.
If we don't go 11-5, and finish with 10 or 9 wins, then we need to get a bye, and go to the A-10 finals.
We can play with anybody in this league, and vice versa. It's all how we finish up.
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Post by lasallerules1978 on Jan 31, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -5
I think you're overreacting simply because losing to GW then running the regular season table puts us in great shape. "Must win" is really over/misused. Completely agree. Must Win should be banned along with bracketology. Here is what some people are missing, the A10 added 2 ranked teams to the conference, so in years past the committee would give 4 bids because the league didn't have the depth it does now. What the committee loves to see is teams who can beat other tournament teams especially on the road. They are looking for teams who can pull off the upset. With that said we still need 21 or so wins, but to call Charlotte and UMASS must wins was a little premature. Maybe we can look back and say they were must wins. If you really want to figure this out, you have to follow all of the bubble teams and see if they are winning all the games they are "supposed" to win. It is very complicated at this point. I think the board might have a manic personality. The highs are too high and the lows are too low. |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Jan 31, 2013 12:54:16 GMT -5
According to CBS our RPI only dipped to 29 after the loss, tells me it would probably only have inched up a couple spots with the win. the "MUST" wins are the games against lower RPI teams.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2013 13:06:31 GMT -5
92006 taught us that the bye is worthless. We need wins. If we have 9, 10 wins at the end, we need 3 wins in Brooklyn to dance which would either mean we go to the finals (3-1)or we get a bye and win out. (3-0)
I still believe 23 is the magic number and SLU is the golden goose due to tiebreakers and quality road wins.
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Post by cpico on Jan 31, 2013 16:05:54 GMT -5
I think the GW game is a must win. If we lose I think our NCAA hopes are done. Anyone else feel the same or am I over-reacting? My concern is this team is just going to lose more games with tough games against Temple/St. Louis/ SJU upcoming. To lose two games this week with the possibility of going 0-3 or 1-2 during that stretch would be killer. I would have felt much better sweeping this week heading into the final portion of the schedule. If we walk away 0-2 it could be devastating to our NCAA chances. Agree. The GW game this weekend is a must win to still have a shot at the NCAA. Not holding on to that lead last night leaves us with basically no room for error. |
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Post by cpico on Jan 31, 2013 18:25:58 GMT -5
I think you're overreacting simply because losing to GW then running the regular season table puts us in great shape. "Must win" is really over/misused. If we lose to GW on Saturday what basis would anyone have in thinking we could run the table after that. This game is a must win Saturday, especially after a loss in which we had a lead with under 10 seconds left on our home floor. Need this one really bad to keep realistic hopes of an NCAA bid alive. |
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Post by MisterD on Jan 31, 2013 21:13:04 GMT -5
What basis was there to think we'd beat Butler and VCU after a bad showing against Xavier?
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Post by cpico on Jan 31, 2013 21:43:43 GMT -5
What basis was there to think we'd beat Butler and VCU after a bad showing against Xavier? You're talking about 2 games. Running the table after Saturday would mean winning 8 in a row. We have shown we are not consistent enough to do that. |
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Post by ltrain38 on Feb 1, 2013 1:01:50 GMT -5
Doesn't look like any team in this league can do that. We need to go 7-2 at this point and it would help a lot to take down either Temple or SLU. Don't think we've beaten either since '08-'09 and they're both road games (if any game in North Philly is really a road game).
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 1, 2013 7:49:17 GMT -5
We beat SJU in 2010/11 technically that's out home game this year but basically it's a neutral site. No one in the league is going to win 8 straight, i agree. winning 2 out of 3 the rest of the way is going to be impressive but doable. A win at GW and then a week off to rep for Fordham will be nice which starts a challenging 5 game stretch where 4-1 would be a great run and is doable. Fordham, @sbu, SJU, @tu, @uri - then a week off for the final sprint of 3 games DUQ, GW, @slu where 2 out of 3 is again doable. Finish up 11-5 in the league this year owning tiebreakers against 2 other teams that are likely to also finish around 11-5 could help immensely in terms of getting a first round bye.
A top 4 finish this year is really quite a reward, winning 3 games instead of 4 in this tournament is a major advantage in comparison to any other year.
I anticipate a finish somewhere like this, records are not exact as any 11-5 team could also be 12-4 or 10-6, 10-6 teams could be 11-5 or 9-7, and so on. My point being that at the top I think the best team MAYBE is 12-4 and then after that there are going to be a host of teams at 11-5/10-6, owning tiebreakers against 2 of those teams will be huge, especially if it comes down to 2nd tie breaker of wins against common oppponents or something like that. There's a ton of hoops to play and we are very much in the middle of the race for 1st place.
Butler 11-5
VCU 11-5
LS 11-5
XU 11-5
TU 10-6
UM 10-6
Char 10-6
Rich 9-7
SJU 9-7
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Post by lasallerules1978 on Feb 2, 2013 17:17:29 GMT -5
Now that we got that "must win" out of the way, did anyone notice uri giving butler a game and San Diego lost a "must win" to the air force academy. Lots of basketball left, need to take it one game at a time. -captain cliche
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2013 18:50:01 GMT -5
We beat SJU in 2010/11 technically that's out home game this year but basically it's a neutral site. No one in the league is going to win 8 straight, i agree. winning 2 out of 3 the rest of the way is going to be impressive but doable. A win at GW and then a week off to rep for Fordham will be nice which starts a challenging 5 game stretch where 4-1 would be a great run and is doable. Fordham, @sbu, SJU, @tu, @uri - then a week off for the final sprint of 3 games DUQ, GW, @slu where 2 out of 3 is again doable. Finish up 11-5 in the league this year owning tiebreakers against 2 other teams that are likely to also finish around 11-5 could help immensely in terms of getting a first round bye. A top 4 finish this year is really quite a reward, winning 3 games instead of 4 in this tournament is a major advantage in comparison to any other year. I anticipate a finish somewhere like this, records are not exact as any 11-5 team could also be 12-4 or 10-6, 10-6 teams could be 11-5 or 9-7, and so on. My point being that at the top I think the best team MAYBE is 12-4 and then after that there are going to be a host of teams at 11-5/10-6, owning tiebreakers against 2 of those teams will be huge, especially if it comes down to 2nd tie breaker of wins against common oppponents or something like that. There's a ton of hoops to play and we are very much in the middle of the race for 1st place. Butler 11-5 VCU 11-5 LS 11-5 XU 11-5 TU 10-6 UM 10-6 Char 10-6 Rich 9-7 SJU 9-7 That is boring. I want a six way tie. |
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Post by cpico on Feb 2, 2013 19:38:04 GMT -5
This was a really good win for us. Contrary to what some are alluding to I really think this game was a must win, and we won it. Good job.
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Post by lasallerules1978 on Feb 2, 2013 20:24:40 GMT -5
Don't misinterpret what I'm saying. "must win" is a bs term. I'm not saying this wasn't a good win. I just didn't think a loss put us out of tourney talk. It's a toug road, but the big wins will keep us alive for a while. I don't think people realize how big last week was. I'm usually a glass half empty guy but I was very impressed. Still the king of cliches.
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Post by cpico on Feb 2, 2013 20:37:46 GMT -5
Don't misinterpret what I'm saying. "must win" is a bs term. I'm not saying this wasn't a good win. I just didn't think a loss put us out of tourney talk. It's a toug road, but the big wins will keep us alive for a while. I don't think people realize how big last week was. I'm usually a glass half empty guy but I was very impressed. Still the king of cliches. Disagree with you. Today was a must win. You have to win games on the road, especially against teams that are solid, but not expected to finish as high as us. Must win in this case was not a cliche, it was reality and we did what we needed to do. |
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Post by explorer88 on Feb 2, 2013 20:45:47 GMT -5
Don't misinterpret what I'm saying. "must win" is a bs term. I'm not saying this wasn't a good win. I just didn't think a loss put us out of tourney talk. It's a toug road, but the big wins will keep us alive for a while. I don't think people realize how big last week was. I'm usually a glass half empty guy but I was very impressed. Still the king of cliches. Disagree with you. Today was a must win. You have to win games on the road, especially against teams that are solid, but not expected to finish as high as us. Must win in this case was not a cliche, it was reality and we did what we needed to do. Absolutely correct cpico. |
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 2, 2013 22:01:42 GMT -5
I was just happy to see the guys came out the way I hoped- intense and focused and made an immediate statement that they were there to win. Fordham will be tough, but revenge should be on our side. Then the next big challenge is at the Bonnie's in a possible trap game with our guys looking ahead to the SJU game.
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