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Post by 23won on Jan 27, 2020 17:24:26 GMT -5
I looked at the +/- for all games with +/- stats reported on Goexplorers.com and excluded blow-out losses (Dayton, Richmond), for a total of 11 games. I did not include blow-out losses since all players were heavily negative for those games. Basically, I wanted to analyze the numbers for games that were winnable. +/- numbers were not available for the three game tourney we won. Net +/- on a gross and (per game played) basis are as follows:
Ed: +49 (+4.4) Deas: +32 (+2.9)
Spencer: +24 (+2.9)
Hikim: +4 (+1) Phiri: +2 (+.05)(10 games played)
Beatty: -4 (-1) Ray: -14 (-1.3)
Stone: -24 (-2.2)
Kenney: -32 (-3.5) (nine games played)
For 4 A10 games where stats were available (excluding blowouts), you have Ed at +33, Spencer +3, Phiri at +1. All others were negative: Deas -14 (-11 with flu for VCU); Hikim -15; Beatty -17 (-19 in Mason game); Ray - 28; Stone -29; Kenney (-32 in 3 games)
To me, the biggest thing that jumped out was how consistently positive Ed was and how he seems essential to our winning (or chance of winning). If the tourney stats were available, Ed's numbers would have skewed even more favorably against the pack.
Ed has gotten into foul trouble far too much this year. In the VCU game, he was the only one holding ground against Santos Silva, but his PT was diminished due to two fouls committed under our basket after an opponent's defensive rebound.
Aside from foul shooting improvement, we increase our chances of winning by (1) having Ed avoid fouls after a defensive rebound, (2) outside of crunch time, making Ed let a man score who is open or has beat him, and (3) running the offense through Ed, where we show better productivity.
Let me know your thoughts on this.
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Post by blueandgold on Jan 27, 2020 19:12:49 GMT -5
My only comment is that this confirms the eye test. Ed is the best talent on this squad and only a sophomore - I would love it if he is able to take another step or two before spring of 2022 arrives.
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Post by crayzeeguy on Jan 27, 2020 19:15:44 GMT -5
My only comment is that this confirms the eye test. Ed is the best talent on this squad and only a sophomore - I would love it if he is able to take another step or two before spring of 2022 arrives. He appears to be shooting a bit more recently, but could probably take over some games with the looks he passes up, or chooses not to create
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Post by sweat83 on Jan 28, 2020 7:49:29 GMT -5
Next year...Ed, Jared and Clifton Moore will be competing for minutes. All Juniors. One needs to step up and be a presence in the middle.
Speaking of which...Where has Jared been? No minutes the last 3 games. I haven't been paying much attention during the losing streak. Is he hurt?
The stats above are screaming "Don't play Stone or Kenney" Those are pretty high negative numbers. I know they are Freshman, but it would appear that their time on the court is taking us out of games. And they haven't been a factor on the offensive side of the ball.
The team really needs to step it up tomorrow night. Get a lead, and maintain the lead. Getting down by 10 at any point in the game doesn't do us much good.
Need to reverse course tomorrow night.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Jan 28, 2020 9:25:31 GMT -5
The stats above are screaming "Don't play Stone or Kenney" Those are pretty high negative numbers. Even beyond the whole "they have to develop sometime" aspect, I just don't think its a good enough stat to draw those kinds of conclusions. Its like NHL +/-, it'll tell you literally the even strength goals for minus against, but there's so much nuance in terms of game situation, quality of competition, etc that gets left out and can severely skew the analysis. Like if the game is tied with a minute to go, am I really sitting Beatty because the numbers tell me he's more likely to end up a negative than a positive?
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 28, 2020 9:44:32 GMT -5
Stone needs to play more. We need to develop him. He is long and can block shots. If we can get him open shots he can knock them down if he is playing consistently. Sure he is some what of a liability defensively but his length and ability to spread the floor with Hikim penetrating the basketball we should be doing more.
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big5vet
Mop-Up Time
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Post by big5vet on Jan 28, 2020 9:53:07 GMT -5
I believe Jared and Moustapha were both injured during practice. We have been playing with just two bigs for the last two games. I agree Ed has been the team's best player since November. Improving his footwork and faster decision making on offense will really boost his game; defensively staying out of foul trouble is a high priority. Based on the "eye test"(TV and in person), I rank performance by the Freshmen in order as Ayinde, Sherif (each has played hot and cold), Christian and Brandon. It's often a game to game decision as to how much PT a freshman receives. For the upper classmen I have have the most confidence in David followed by Scott. David can be a lock down defender, can create for himself, and makes good decisions with the ball more often than not.
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Post by a10champion15 on Jan 28, 2020 10:24:37 GMT -5
Just want to make sure I got this straight.
1. Let's not play the freshmen based on +/- figures.
2. Some are suggesting Ash should be on the hot seat.
3. We should be a fundamentally sound team right now.
It's hard not to just laugh at some of these comments on this board lately. Most of you KNEW this would be a rebuilding year. They just played 3 of the best teams in the conference. Yes, they should of won one of the Mason or UMass game but still I have absolutely no idea what some of you expected.
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Post by 23won on Jan 28, 2020 10:31:56 GMT -5
Just want to make sure I got this straight. 1. Let's not play the freshmen based on +/- figures. 2. Some are suggesting Ash should be on the hot seat. 3. We should be a fundamentally sound team right now. It's hard not to just laugh at some of these comments on this board lately. Most of you KNEW this would be a rebuilding year. They just played 3 of the best teams in the conference. Yes, they should of won one of the Mason or UMass game but still I have absolutely no idea what some of you expected. Your 1-3 are not in the OP, and I have not seen any post saying 2 or 3 in any meaningful way. The overall point is that, in an incredibly tough league with good 1-12 balance, the calculus of winning or losing can come down to a few swing points and if we ride our top horse in a stronger and smarter way, we could potentially see better outcomes based on the metrics.
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Post by GlitterBro #2 on Jan 28, 2020 10:40:44 GMT -5
The overall point is that, in an incredibly tough league with good 1-12 balance, the calculus of winning or losing can come down to a few swing points and if we ride our top horse in a stronger and smarter way, we could potentially see better outcomes based on the metrics. This is what G always used to say whenever I heard him speak...that the margin of victory in A10 games is so small on any given night, that the team that can focus for that extra minute or two, or make a few extra foul shots, can change the outcome of a game and even a season.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 28, 2020 10:44:03 GMT -5
The overall point is that, in an incredibly tough league with good 1-12 balance, the calculus of winning or losing can come down to a few swing points and if we ride our top horse in a stronger and smarter way, we could potentially see better outcomes based on the metrics. This is what G always used to say whenever I heard him speak...that the margin of victory in A10 games is so small on any given night, that the team that can focus for that extra minute or two, or make a few extra foul shots, can change the outcome of a game and even a season. I think and always thought G was absolutely correct. However, over the course of a season the deficiencies the program or a team has creates the losing record. For example, on any night we could shoot the lights out or protect the basketball and have the other team shoot poorly and win that game. Over 30 games we won't shoot it well enough or take care of the basketball well enough to have a winning record. The margin is small on a given night but over 30 games the margin increases.
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Post by 23won on Jan 28, 2020 12:58:01 GMT -5
88 I hear you, but if we keep Ed out of foul trouble he can help narrow that delta by playing more minutes, getting high percentage close in finish shots (which Ayinde and others have shown they can deliver on) and provide value as a better lane defender, relative to our other options.
Given the options, I'd rather have a 60% shot opportunity with potential for foul shots over a 36% or lower chance of getting hot from three land on any given night.
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Post by explorer88 on Jan 28, 2020 13:12:38 GMT -5
Don't disagree 23.
I would like to see the following:
Hikim as the start point guard. Ed and Stone playing the frontcourt. Beatty, Spencer, Shaggy, Saul getting the bulk of the wing minutes. Whoever has the hot hand gets the minutes that night.
I want Stone and the wings to spread the floor and work Hikim and Ed with a drive/dish scenario. You can have the wings spot up for threes to take it the rack if there is a lane. Fast ball movement is essential. I know we would have some tough shooting nights and would need to help Stone defensively but I think this is how we can help develop them and like the idea of spacing and size on the floor.
Anyone else on board or am I looking at a 0-30 coaching debut?
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Post by calsufan on Jan 28, 2020 14:36:04 GMT -5
My record is unblemished at 0-0.
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Post by broderickpresident on Jan 28, 2020 16:22:22 GMT -5
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Post by broderickpresident on Jan 28, 2020 16:44:44 GMT -5
Per Hoop Explorer here's adjusted per 100 possession "roland ratings" for our players. Roland ratings are taking your on-court differential and subtracting your off-court differential. Positive is good impact, negative is bad impact. Smaller the sample, the less reliable, but generally tells you who we're playing well with on the floor and prorates to per 100 possessions. Spencer is such a valuable versatile defender and shot maker/floor spacer. Ed is a big, active body that must be accounted for. Deas give you a creative spark that make something happen when our offense fails to produce good looks organically (an important skill). Saul is similar to Spencer in that he doesn't try to create much, limits mistakes and provides versatile D with some important floor stretching. Hikim makes mistakes but is a stir that straws the drink. Brings great pressure and is one of the few players we have that can beat a D and make a play for himself or someone else.
Spencer: +23.3 Croswell: +17.2 Deas: +13.6 Phiri: +5.5 Hikim: -0.9 Ray: -5.7 Beatty: -8.6 Stone: -14.6 Kimbrough: -17.0 Kenney: -17.9
Some interesting notes from this:
Croswell don't shoot 3s, but he sure makes it easier for those who do. We shoot 38.8% from deep when he's on the floor and 29.9% when he's not.
More intuitive is that we rebound 35.2% of our misses with Eddie in the game and just 22.0% without him.
When Spencer is on the floor we shoot 39.4% from 3. 23.2% (!) without him.
When Deas isn't on the floor, we shoot UNDER 50 percent at the rim (which is practically unheard of). Easy to lock in and protect the rim when you don't have to worry about any creative offensive players.
When we have Spencer, Croswell, Deas and Phiri all on the court, we're +32.0 adjusted points per 100 possessions
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Post by crayzeeguy on Jan 28, 2020 18:54:18 GMT -5
Per Hoop Explorer here's adjusted per 100 possession "roland ratings" for our players. Roland ratings are taking your on-court differential and subtracting your off-court differential. Positive is good impact, negative is bad impact. Smaller the sample, the less reliable, but generally tells you who we're playing well with on the floor and prorates to per 100 possessions. Spencer is such a valuable versatile defender and shot maker/floor spacer. Ed is a big, active body that must be accounted for. Deas give you a creative spark that make something happen when our offense fails to produce good looks organically (an important skill). Saul is similar to Spencer in that he doesn't try to create much, limits mistakes and provides versatile D with some important floor stretching. Hikim makes mistakes but is a stir that straws the drink. Brings great pressure and is one of the few players we have that can beat a D and make a play for himself or someone else. Spencer: +23.3 Croswell: +17.2 Deas: +13.6 Phiri: +5.5 Hikim: -0.9 Ray: -5.7 Beatty: -8.6 Stone: -14.6 Kimbrough: -17.0 Kenney: -17.9 Some interesting notes from this: Croswell don't shoot 3s, but he sure makes it easier for those who do. We shoot 38.8% from deep when he's on the floor and 29.9% when he's not. More intuitive is that we rebound 35.2% of our misses with Eddie in the game and just 22.0% without him. When Spencer is on the floor we shoot 39.4% from 3. 23.2% (!) without him. When Deas isn't on the floor, we shoot UNDER 50 percent at the rim (which is practically unheard of). Easy to lock in and protect the rim when you don't have to worry about any creative offensive players. When we have Spencer, Croswell, Deas and Phiri all on the court, we're +32.0 adjusted points per 100 possessions NPOA
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Post by 23won on Jan 28, 2020 19:09:45 GMT -5
88,
1) I like Hikim as the starting point guard and am willing to take the risk of him continuing to learn on the job (25-28 mpg). I think Beatty can spot him at point for the balance (12-15). I don't see Kenney or Phiri as a 1 and would like to see less of that.
2) Deas IMO deserves 20 mpg as he is one of the few who can score/create a shot. Beatty can pick up 10 and Phiri 10 at this spot.
3/4) Spencer is a guy who is key. I think he needs 30 mpg. Kenney gets the remaining 10.
3/4) I'd be ok with Stone running through screens for open outside looks and spreading the floor. I am ok with him starting and positioning us for a lead. I don't see more than 15 mpg though. Phiri and Ray can split 25 minutes each at this spot
5) Ed is a guy we have to maximize minutes for. Minimize the mental mistakes I noted above, keep him out of foul trouble and try to get him in the 28-30 mpg zone. We should not sub Stone for his position (not physically ready) but should have Jared or Mous fill his time.
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Post by hykos1045 on Jan 29, 2020 23:01:45 GMT -5
Here are the stats I ran manually from just the 3 wins in Florida:
Player +/- , For-Against
Spencer +50 , 180-130
Croswell +29 , 132-103
Deas +23, 120-97
Phiri +21 , 183-162
Beatty +10 , 123-113
Diagne +5 , 10-5
Kenney -6 , 126-132
Hikim -8 , 83-91
Stone -8 , 57-65
Kimbrough -13 , 53-66
Ray -13 , 73-86
I have revised the year averages accordingly, which is based on 14 games only. I did not incorporate the STL game and I do not know which other games weren't recorded in the box scores.
Ed: +78 (+5.6) Spencer: +74 (+5.3)
Deas: +55 (+3.9) Phiri: +23 (+1.8)(13 games)
Beatty: +6 (+0.4)
Hikim: -4 (-0.3) Ray: -27 (-1.9) Stone: -32 (-2.3) Kenney: -38 (-3.2) (12 games)
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Post by vital on Jan 29, 2020 23:04:54 GMT -5
Metrics showing the +guys who should have been in the game late...Men lie Women lie but numbers dont...
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Post by hykos1045 on Jan 29, 2020 23:11:26 GMT -5
OK but Deas was one of those guys, he's our leading scorer. But the shot was ill timed. Seemed a bit rushed and probably not the way it was drawn up. Credit STL defense too for shutting down the lane and getting two guys to put pressure on the ball.
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Post by hykos1045 on Jan 23, 2021 21:30:34 GMT -5
Bumpity bump!
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