MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 8, 2016 13:24:46 GMT -5
Stats and history are cool, so lets take a look! Assume we win no more games this year and "need" to win 20 next year, we'd have to improve 15 wins or more. How often does that happen? Over the last 10 seasons, ignoring programs in their first year of D1 play, 17 have improved by 15 or more games. As follows ...
Santa Clara (2012 to 2013): +18 Coastal Carolina (2009 to 2010): +17 Bryant (2012 to 2013): +17 Towson (2012 to 2013): +17 Notre Dame (2014 to 2015): +17 Temple (2014 to 2015): +17 USC Upstate (2011 to 2012): +16 UC Davis (2014 to 2015): +16 Washington St. (2006 to 2007): +15 Missouri (2008 to 2009): +15 Loyola Marymount (2009 to 2010): +15 Indiana (2011 to 2012): +15 Manhattan (2011 to 2012): +15 Nevada (2011 to 2012): +15 Toledo (2011 to 2012): +15 Canisius (2012 to 2013): +15 Northern Iowa (2014 to 2015): +15
So its both "not very likely" if you look at it with a denominator of all teams who could gain 15 wins and "not exactly unrealistic or an outlier" if you think of it as almost two teams doing it per season. And since we could theoretically win again, if you change it to 14+, its 27 teams. If its 13+, its 42. 12+ is 62.
(I tend to slide us to the positive side because I'm guessing our improvements will be more talent influx than the norm. Not into "we will" territory, but "we will have a much better chance than the standard sub-10 win team would. But I'm also a tad optimistic here, so who knows.)
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 8, 2016 13:36:22 GMT -5
I can see a way where we end up the season on a 3 out of 4 win run and end up with 8 or 9 wins on the year, making the delta from this year to next a little smaller.
Temple is probably the most comparable scenario to us from 2014 to 2015 as they too had a bunch of transfers waiting in the wings I think. obviously, the talent infusion we have is probably higher than most, if not all those teams listed above since we graduate only one player and add 3.
On the scale of Not at all likely, Not likely, equal chance, Likely to Most likely, moving left to right, I'm probably on the right end of the spectrum somewhere between equal chance and and Likely. Call it 58%.
Add 17 wins to 8 from this year and I think we can all be happy next year, and that's probably the high-water mark. I think it becomes more attainable psychologically as a fan to say 14 wins plus 6 or 7 this year and we're probably just about there.
It's not an excuse for this season, but if 4 guys can come to play next year, it's a totally new team and comparing anything to this season is really not possible.
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Post by durenduren on Feb 8, 2016 14:23:18 GMT -5
Good research, right there. By default, our hopes for next year are improbable. But I'm confident that the chemistry that's being hinted at really is something worthwhile.
Luckwarm at a 6.5 out of 10 on the "feel good" scale.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2016 14:56:57 GMT -5
Also: +8 (10 to 18), +6, +5, and +4 are G's top four "gap up" seasons.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 8, 2016 14:58:06 GMT -5
By default, our hopes for next year are improbable. We need someone with a more universal CBB background to figure out a comparable situation. In theory, we could be sitting in a perfect storm of being in a perennial multi-bid conference but not one so that's talented you can't just leap to the top.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 8, 2016 14:59:00 GMT -5
Also: +8 (10 to 18), +6, +5, and +4 are G's top four "gap up" seasons. True, but he's also never bottomed out before or had more than one major transfer join the roster in a single year.
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Post by durenduren on Feb 8, 2016 15:00:53 GMT -5
By default, our hopes for next year are improbable. We need someone with a more universal CBB background to figure out a comparable situation. In theory, we could be sitting in a perfect storm of being in a perennial multi-bid conference but not one so that's talented you can't just leap to the top. Agreed -- I'm not sure any of the teams you mentioned A) had the influx of talent, in both quantity and quality that we're potentially going to see and B) that are in as competitive of a conference as we see in the A10.
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Post by a10champion15 on Feb 8, 2016 22:49:24 GMT -5
I think this is a really good point.
We 100% have 4 solid players. Very valuable experience for this roster going forward.
The A10 while a top 7 conference consistently is a conference where the talent level is never unsurmountable that teams can't make significant leaps. It a consistent theme for the A10. A team finishes near the bottom one season and the following season completely turns it around the next whether it's SLU in 11-12, GW in 13-14 URI in 14-15, or SJU this season
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Post by lasalle89 on Feb 9, 2016 0:51:20 GMT -5
So our talent next year "could" win us 8-12 more games. How many games do we lose because of poor coaching?
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Post by weston2 on Feb 9, 2016 11:00:33 GMT -5
.500 / depends on OOC sked. Go from there.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 9, 2016 11:29:58 GMT -5
so obviously, the conclusion here is, when we win it's because of players, when we lose it's becaus eof the coach. never the inverse?
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 9, 2016 11:43:12 GMT -5
So our talent next year "could" win us 8-12 more games. How many games do we lose because of poor coaching? I don't know, man. Do you assume the 2011-12 NIT team was a true 26 win team on paper that he coached down to 21?
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Post by durenduren on Feb 9, 2016 11:59:15 GMT -5
so obviously, the conclusion here is, when we win it's because of players, when we lose it's becaus eof the coach. never the inverse? And we've got a winner!
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Post by Gnocchi on Feb 9, 2016 12:49:00 GMT -5
so obviously, the conclusion here is, when we win it's because of players, when we lose it's becaus eof the coach. Charlie Manuel...
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Post by lasalle89 on Feb 9, 2016 13:02:36 GMT -5
You only have to be a little objective and know a little bit about basketball to see that G is not going to win many games because of his coaching. Next years team is going to be loaded with talent. I do not want any excuses from G or anybody else on this board if he does not get us into some sort of postseason play. Everybody is giving him a pass this year including me. Next year he will have a very talented team that he has built which he should get credit for. Now he must do what he is being paid to do and that is win games.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 9, 2016 13:16:50 GMT -5
What are we counting as coaching? Like I remember when part of the foolproof evidence of his awful coaching was not using Yevgen more.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 9, 2016 14:17:30 GMT -5
so obviously, the conclusion here is, when we win it's because of players, when we lose it's becaus eof the coach. Charlie Manuel... Phil Jackson
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2016 14:34:33 GMT -5
What are we counting as coaching? Like I remember when part of the foolproof evidence of his awful coaching was not using Yevgen more. The message board collective has also chastised G for: -Playing Weingarten (at all) -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) -Playing too much man to man defense (over the zone) -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) -Allowing too many transfers out (Never mind that AM and DW each transferred themselves, like, 3 times each?) -Playing Zack too much (again he closed his career with career high 24 & 15) -Playing Wright not enough minutes (due to fouls, fatigue) -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game (Mooney holds the record for that) -Losing to Majerus -Losing to a final four team
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Post by durenduren on Feb 9, 2016 16:28:24 GMT -5
The message board collective has also chastised G for: -Playing Weingarten (at all) -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) -Playing too much man to man defense (over the zone) -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) -Allowing too many transfers out (Never mind that AM and DW each transferred themselves, like, 3 times each?) -Playing Zack too much (again he closed his career with career high 24 & 15) -Playing Wright not enough minutes (due to fouls, fatigue) -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game (Mooney holds the record for that) -Losing to Majerus -Losing to a final four team You forgot the part when they hated his pin-striped suits.
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Post by broderickpresident on Feb 10, 2016 6:50:07 GMT -5
What are we counting as coaching? Like I remember when part of the foolproof evidence of his awful coaching was not using Yevgen more. Well, a *real* doctor would have cured him
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 10, 2016 8:32:07 GMT -5
Point conceded.
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Post by calsufan on Feb 10, 2016 9:57:25 GMT -5
What are we counting as coaching? Like I remember when part of the foolproof evidence of his awful coaching was not using Yevgen more. The message board collective has also chastised G for: -Playing Weingarten (at all) -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) -Playing too much man to man defense (over the zone) -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) -Allowing too many transfers out (Never mind that AM and DW each transferred themselves, like, 3 times each?) -Playing Zack too much (again he closed his career with career high 24 & 15) -Playing Wright not enough minutes (due to fouls, fatigue) -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game (Mooney holds the record for that) -Losing to Majerus -Losing to a final four team Some of your examples are valid points and some of them are cherry picks or legitimate gripes by fans. Cherry picks: -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) - Having one good week of shooting does not mean his shooting / finishing problems are cured. Most weeks, his stat line would be no where near that. His FG% would bare that out. -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) - Referencing one game is wrong. It's the whole body of work. Overall, I am generally happy with how Zack and Wright played, but you can't speak to one game. With that being said, I think as far as Wright goes, he wasn't developed as well as he could have been. He only had one post move and he never developed a short jumper. I have more of a gripe though with just showing one game as proof. Legitimate gripes by fans: -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) - How many other coaches do that? Not many and that should tell you something. How effective was it? Not very. -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) - The most recent examples are Shuler last year (G pretty much wasted a year on him) and Harris (and to a smaller extent Dusan) this year. if I sat and analyzed the other years, I'm sure I could come up with more names. -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game - Sometimes a technical is necessary to protect your team or to support your team. It gets a point across to the ref. He virtually never gets one.
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Post by explorerman on Feb 10, 2016 11:06:54 GMT -5
The message board collective has also chastised G for: -Playing Weingarten (at all) -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) -Playing too much man to man defense (over the zone) -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) -Allowing too many transfers out (Never mind that AM and DW each transferred themselves, like, 3 times each?) -Playing Zack too much (again he closed his career with career high 24 & 15) -Playing Wright not enough minutes (due to fouls, fatigue) -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game (Mooney holds the record for that) -Losing to Majerus -Losing to a final four team Some of your examples are valid points and some of them are cherry picks or legitimate gripes by fans. Cherry picks: -Sticking to Stukes in a 1 of 12 slump (Season Ast to TO = 58-26, is shooting 9/16 this week since the slump with two double digit finishes) - Having one good week of shooting does not mean his shooting / finishing problems are cured. Most weeks, his stat line would be no where near that. His FG% would bare that out. -Couldn't develop bigs (Zack closed career with career high 24 & 15 while Wright went 8 of 9 from the field) - Referencing one game is wrong. It's the whole body of work. Overall, I am generally happy with how Zack and Wright played, but you can't speak to one game. With that being said, I think as far as Wright goes, he wasn't developed as well as he could have been. He only had one post move and he never developed a short jumper. I have more of a gripe though with just showing one game as proof. Legitimate gripes by fans: -Trying too many sub patterns (5 in 5 out) - How many other coaches do that? Not many and that should tell you something. How effective was it? Not very. -Being too loyal to a certain line-up (in general) - The most recent examples are Shuler last year (G pretty much wasted a year on him) and Harris (and to a smaller extent Dusan) this year. if I sat and analyzed the other years, I'm sure I could come up with more names. -Not collecting enough technicals in choice moments... where those lost points would not necessarily cost us the game - Sometimes a technical is necessary to protect your team or to support your team. It gets a point across to the ref. He virtually never gets one. I didn't want to bother answering that list but great, objective response, Cal
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Post by calidelphia on Feb 10, 2016 11:38:07 GMT -5
I just watched Steve fisher pull a few 4 man changes against co st in the first sub of the game. When you're deep it makes sense. He would have pulled trey kell as well but they just don't have another pg. anyways that immediately stopped the early bleeding and they won the game by 2.
The loyalty is double sided. Both a recruiting value and a short sited approach. I would argue that shulers case was a bad roster decision and not a loyalty issue.
Also I think a good coach can get their point across to a red without having to get kicked out of the building. While he could improve there, I believe the majority would consider it embarrassing and unprofessional before they would say it is a helpful strategy. This isn't baseball. My knock on G is the roster decisions and a few misses on recruits and transfers. That said we are la Salle and we take what we can get in that regard from time to time. I can think of three names that could have changed the outcome of this year had they really hit.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 10, 2016 14:18:56 GMT -5
Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray. Who is the third?
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Post by thelasallelunatic on Feb 10, 2016 14:26:38 GMT -5
Buddy Hield?
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Post by lasalle89 on Feb 10, 2016 15:03:51 GMT -5
Is LaSalle the worst program in the A10? I know this year we are but we seem to have a brighter future with the transfers sitting out. On the whole who would you say is the worst A10 program and why? It is hard to believe we were the media darlings and had the nation excited about our brand of basketball just a few years ago.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 10, 2016 15:31:46 GMT -5
Last 10 Seasons (2006-07 - This Year) In Conference Winning Percentage: .750 Virginia Commonwealth .679 Davidson .573 Dayton .558 Richmond .538 Massachusetts .513 George Washington .506 Saint Louis .500 Saint Joseph's of Pennsylvania .487 Rhode Island .436 La Salle .436 St. Bonaventure .420 Duquesne .339 Charlotte .239 George Mason .218 Fordham
No Longer in Conference: .786 Xavier .714 Temple .688 Butler .339 Charlotte
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Feb 10, 2016 15:33:35 GMT -5
Now where *could* we rank relative to the conference is the upsetting part. Dayton has built an incredible brand, as has VCU, but I'm not sure we're second to anyone in terms of location plus history. I don't think we have a ceiling.
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Post by luhoopsfan on Feb 10, 2016 15:36:03 GMT -5
I would argue we are NOT the worst in the A10 in terms of overall program, but we are probably in the bottom tier of programs in the conference and maybe the best of that bunch.
Dayton, VCU and SLU are the premiere programs I would argue. SJU, GW, DAV, URI, RICH, UMass I would put in the "traditional/typical A10 program LAS, DUQ, SBU, GMU, FORD I would put in that bottom tier and would probably argue LAS is the best of that group.
Yes, GMU has a facility on par with that top tier, but they've only been a program since 1978 and while they did well with a great coach in the CAA, Personally, I just don't view them as a great basketball school. At best you move them to the next tier of avg A10 program, thus the debate about if La Salle is the best of the bottom tier.
I would like to see La Salle make the commitment to move to that "typical" A10 program because those programs are regular post season teams and are really nice programs. I think we're moving up the ranks, not down, but to make that next step the Unviersity needs to make a commitment to that direction, it's not going to just happen on its own.
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