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Post by coqui900 on Oct 15, 2014 13:18:42 GMT -5
I am in this amazing college basketball pool. Maybe there's a chance someone else is in it, because it's largely folks from the Delaware Valley. But I don't know.
There are over 50 people in this thing. It's a snake draft format, so it goes 1-50 than 50-1. Everyone picks six teams. Whoever amasses the most total wins at the end of the season wins the prize. (And it includes EVERY tournament -- NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT.)
Last year, there were only something like eight teams that went unpicked. So towards the end I have to consider things like "I think FDU might be able to win five NEC conference games."
So this involves so much strategy. There are obviously good teams in BCS conferences that traditionally do well -- Duke, Kentucky and win 30 games. But good teams in mid-majors have an advantage because of an easier conference schedule. Stephen F. Austin last year was the fourth best team in this last year since they won 32 games. (But RPI wise, they were nowhere near that good, obviously.)
I have the 30th pick.
In the first round, I was really hoping for Georgia State. They won 27 games last year and have an absolutely nasty backcourt in what looks like a pretty easy conference. They went at 28. I ended up going with Toledo, who won 27 games last year, too, and return a bunch -- although the MAC is usually a bit harder.
On the rebound, I had a list of teams I wanted. My top list included Sam Houston State. They're in the Southland, won over 20 last year and return a ton, plus they play a pretty easy-ish non-conference schedule. Three of their losses came to SFA, too. I forget who else they lost to in the non-conference, but they had a few BCS losses. SFA graduated a few guys so there's no way they'll be as good.
Of course they were taken three sports in front of me.
My next big idea was UC-Santa Barbara. They have Alan Williams, the best player in the country no one has heard of. He's a center who averaged over 20 and 10 last year with an insane shooting percentage. I have no idea how he returned for another year of school. It makes zero sense. They also return most of last year's rotation, and they won over 20 and the Big West doesn't really stand out to me as a particularly good conference.
Taken right in front of me.
I was on the clock and ended up on UMass. I still think they'll be pretty good despite losing Chaz. Lasme's a beast and I think they'll have good vibes from Gordon. Their non-conference looks pretty hard, though. But the top half of the A-10 always does very well and I think they'll grab 20 wins.
On the rebound, I'll have around the 140th pick. I have a few sleeper teams, but I'm trying to talk myself into La Salle. I think I should, just because. They're such an unknown but do have arguably the best frontcourt in the A-10 and three seniors who have played a bunch.
I'll put up the list to date after the next update. I may need some help.
This is seriously amazing, though.
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Post by scarletexplorer on Oct 15, 2014 13:35:43 GMT -5
This fascinates me.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Oct 15, 2014 14:16:22 GMT -5
If my quick check of Kenpom is right, 18 wins is expected out of the 140th ranked team. As bullish as I am on this season, I feel like there has to be a lower conference team that's safer for 18, if for no other reason than a far lower chance of bowing out of their conference tourney in the 1st round.
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Post by theneumann64 on Oct 16, 2014 11:42:49 GMT -5
This is a really cool concept. Totally unique. May need to be something we organize for this board next year. (Doubt we'd have enough time to pull it together for this year)
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 16, 2014 12:27:37 GMT -5
The best part is that there are over 50 people in this. I found out about it through a friend of a friend. There was actually a waiting list to get in this thing and the only reason I got a slot this year is because someone in it previously moved to Japan for work.
The guy behind it puts out a pretty regular newsletter that is also really great and I wish he would make public. He's obviously a huge basketball fan and I've gone to a few games with him.
But the fact that less than 10 teams a year are what's left is the awesome part.
I can see some awesome trends developing. There are three types of drafters:
1) SHARKS -- People who do their research and due diligence and have a mapped out strategy for each pick. There are different levels of experience and talent in this department. I am of the "less good at that" department because I'm trying to make really educated picks but am so shocked other people are taking these teams before me.
1A) RISK TAKERS -- There are also people who are real risk takers as a sub-group. Wofford went in the first round in the 40s somewhere. I had them on my "maybe if they sneak to the third round" category. They return a lot of players from a decent enough team last year AND Davidson's no longer in the SoCon, which should open it up. But it's not like they return any really good players, even for a lower level conference. That seemed too high. Hopefully my Toledo first round pick doesn't fall in this department.
2) THE BUY HIGHS -- People who are making picks based on last year's records but aren't considering player turnover. Stephen F. Austin went super high coming off their season but graduated a bunch. North Carolina Central won 28 games last year (who knew?) but graduated 7, and they still went in the first round. (However, the guy who made that pick said he saw an interview with the coach who was wearing a white bowler had so he went with for a cool factor.
3) LOYAL ALUMNI -- People who pick where they went to college and/or a team they root for due to the fun factor. Someone picked St. Joe's in the early second round because their brother goes there and didn't think they'd be on the the board when he got to make his next pick.
I'll post the results to date once the second round is finished. (The draft takes a really long time because of work schedules and the sheer amount of picks.)
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MisterD
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Post by MisterD on Oct 16, 2014 12:42:59 GMT -5
Have you ever run the numbers to see what teams lead to winning picks? I'm torn between thinking you can't win playing it safe-ish and thinking it has to be impossible to pick a team of booms without being offset by busts.
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 16, 2014 13:39:01 GMT -5
Last year's winner had these picks
26 - New Mexico State (26 wins) 92 - Green Bay (24 wins) 137 - St. Joe's (24 wins) 206 - George Washington (24 wins) 251 - North Texas (16 wins) 320 - Miami OH (13 wins)
He won by 3 games. The person who came in second picked one sport beneath him.
Going through the data, the winners tend to have picked mid-majors with the first pick. (One guy picked Cal a few years ago when they won over 25 games.) But the second picks vary quite a bit. (One guy picked Savannah State one year, another guy picked UConn in the second round.)
I think the strategy is to to just try and get a team likely to win 20 plus (at least) in the first round. Good teams returning a ton in weak conferences is a really good bet. Then the second round you can also sort of hedge with that.
After that, it's a crap shoot. The guy last year snagged St. Joe's and GW and who thought they'd win 48 combined games? I didn't think either of those teams were going to win that many games. Last year, La Salle went in the first round in the 40s -- returning a bunch of players from a Sweet 16 team makes sense. We thought going in we would have had maybe the third best team in the conference but we ended up not that good.
There's also so much variance in college basketball and luck plays such a role. Look at how many close games we had last year and how many we lost. A few different calls and shot results would have gotten us a few more wins.
It's also tough to predict schedule strength. Last year we ended up playing a bunch of really good teams that didn't necessarily look that great on paper to start the year.
This draft is so fascinating. We've hit a lull period so I probably won't pick until tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have some time to really come up with a bunch of teams I hope fall my way next. But La Salle might be a really worthy swing-for-the-fences pick if they're available.
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MisterD
The Baptist Himself
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Post by MisterD on Oct 16, 2014 15:08:46 GMT -5
Do you have last year's draft order w/ eventual wins? I'm a huge nerd and want to see some stuff.
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Post by theneumann64 on Oct 16, 2014 15:41:22 GMT -5
Definitely keep us posted on this throughout the year. I'd love to try to get this going on here next year. Seems like you'd need to get 40 guys to make it work and o think we could do it..
Also I'd be awful at this, but it would be fun.
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Post by bredsdaman on Oct 17, 2014 8:17:23 GMT -5
Curious how the drafting process works? Is it online? Is it timed? Seems tough to get everyone on the same page.
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Post by theneumann64 on Oct 17, 2014 8:47:06 GMT -5
My guess is you'd have to have it over the course of like a week.
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Post by manayunk53 on Oct 17, 2014 8:48:06 GMT -5
That draft must take some serious coordination.
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Post by bredsdaman on Oct 17, 2014 9:10:46 GMT -5
I am guessing a google Doc would be best which is shared with all involved. I am definitely considering setting this up.
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 17, 2014 9:14:40 GMT -5
It started Monday and we're JUST getting into the third round. So yes, it does take a lot of coordination.
The guy who runs it is in constant text/e-mail contact with people as their picks approach. But he also has a job and life (as does everyone else), so it takes some time.
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Post by coqui900 on Oct 20, 2014 13:17:00 GMT -5
The logistics for the draft got stalled. The guy running the thing had work duties as did a bunch of the people in the pool. People were also busy during the weekends and etc.
As such, I just made my 3rd round pick. And I went with.... YOUR La Salle Explorers.
I did this for a few reasons:
1) My pick is around 145. This slot had 18 wins last year. We obviously didn't finish that high. But we have the best frontcourt in the A-10 (with apologies to what I assume VCU brings back) and a ton of unknown quantities in terms of transfers and freshmen. Maybe there's some magic in that formula? Last year's winner picked GW in the third round -- that was a flyer pick that ended up great, obviously.
2) A combination of loyalty/sloth. I was also really this weekend and couldn't study up as much as I wanted to. A bunch of the teams taken right before La Salle I had on my radar (Chatanooga, Hofstra, Morehead State) but there are also a few "what the??" like St. Francis (NY) and Delaware (who graduated a ton). My pick is a big risk/reward pick, which I think is the way to go this late in the draft.
Mr. D ran some numbers and said the optimum strategy with this is to not screw up. The key in this is to exceed the expected win total your pick provides. In other words, the La Salle slot last year was 18 wins. If the Explorers go anything about 18, that's a bonus. If the other teams I pick exceed their expected totals, then you can manage a slight loss (like 15 wins) at this pick. And if I somehow hit a home run with one of my picks, then you can really do some damage in this as long as every other pick plays close to the numbers.
This is a lot of fun.
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Post by stlexplorer on Oct 20, 2014 21:08:15 GMT -5
The logistics for the draft got stalled. The guy running the thing had work duties as did a bunch of the people in the pool. People were also busy during the weekends and etc. As such, I just made my 3rd round pick. And I went with.... YOUR La Salle Explorers. I did this for a few reasons: 1) My pick is around 145. This slot had 18 wins last year. We obviously didn't finish that high. But we have the best frontcourt in the A-10 (with apologies to what I assume VCU brings back) and a ton of unknown quantities in terms of transfers and freshmen. Maybe there's some magic in that formula? Last year's winner picked GW in the third round -- that was a flyer pick that ended up great, obviously. 2) A combination of loyalty/sloth. I was also really this weekend and couldn't study up as much as I wanted to. A bunch of the teams taken right before La Salle I had on my radar (Chatanooga, Hofstra, Morehead State) but there are also a few "what the??" like St. Francis (NY) and Delaware (who graduated a ton). My pick is a big risk/reward pick, which I think is the way to go this late in the draft. Mr. D ran some numbers and said the optimum strategy with this is to not screw up. The key in this is to exceed the expected win total your pick provides. In other words, the La Salle slot last year was 18 wins. If the Explorers go anything about 18, that's a bonus. If the other teams I pick exceed their expected totals, then you can manage a slight loss (like 15 wins) at this pick. And if I somehow hit a home run with one of my picks, then you can really do some damage in this as long as every other pick plays close to the numbers. This is a lot of fun. You shall be rewarded or frustrated that they are hurting you in the wallet as well
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