Rothstein projects A-10

[stlexplorer]

I'm picturing Heath Ledger as the Joker, "and here. we. go."

@jonrothstein: Here's some early projections for the Atlantic 10 in 2014-15. Never too early to start talking ball!

@jonrothstein: 14-15 A10 Preseason Power Rankings: 1. VCU 2. Dayton 3. GW 4. UMass 5. URI 6. Richmond 7. La Salle 8. SLU 9. Saint Joseph's 10. George Mason 11. Duquesne 12. St. Bonaventure 13. Fordham 14. Davidson

@jonrothstein: 14-15 Atlantic 10 Preseason Player of the Year: Treveon Graham, VCU

@jonrothstein: 14-15 Atlantic 10 Preseason Sleeper: La Salle

@jonrothstein: 14-15 Preseason All-A10 1st Team: Kendall Anthony(Rich),E.C. Matthews(URI),DeAndre Bembry(SJU),Treveon Graham(VCU) Jerrell Wright(La Salle).

@jonrothstein: 10 Impact A 10 Freshman for 14-15: Terry Larrier (VCU), Justin Tillman (VCU), Jared Terrell (URI), Jarvis Garrett (URI), Yuta Watanabe (GW).Darrell Davis (Dayton) James Demery (SJU), Amar Stukes, (La Salle), Jordan Robinson (Duquesne), Eric Paschall (Fordham).

@jonrothstein: 5 Under-The-Radar A 10 Freshman for 14-15: Paul Jorgenson (GW), Eric Lockett (Mason), Manny Suarez (Fordham), Jonathan Williams (VCU), Antravious Simmons, VCU.

@jonrothstein: 5 Breakout A10 Players for 14-15: Mo Alie-Cox (VCU), Trey Davis (UMass), Shawn'Dre Jones (Rich) Scoochie Smith (Dayton),Hassan Martin (URI).

[theneumann64]

Good stuff. I think his placement of La Salle is more than fair.

[23won]

U Mass is a bit generous. Other than that, it seems spot on.

[a10champion15]

Jon Roth 2013-2014 NCAA Sleepers

A10 Dayton
Big East Providence
Big 10 Nebraska
Big 12 Oklahoma
Pac 12 Stanford
ACC Boston College
AAC SMU
SEC LSU

These are some pretty good picks in my mind. 5 for 8 even though you could debate SMU should of been in the tournament. Boston College seems to be the only bad pick. LSU had their chance and basically blew it. Lets hope he is right about La Salle.

[explorerman]

Considering the vast upgrade at the guard position that will occur in the offseason, it isn't that far off to being a sleeper... Especially considering how unlucky La Salle was last year when you look at the advanced metrics...

In my mind, Giannini just needs to get out of the way and let it happen... The upgrade at the 2 and 3 positions next year is so big that it will make up for the loss at the #1 last year (especially considering Duren was pretty much playing offense by himself and injured)... The front court should improve you would like to think...

I feel optimistic next year... The talent is certainly there..

[lwc4591]

How anyone believes St. Joe's can finish in the top 10 is living in denial or doesn't realize there is no 5 year plan for Galloway, Roberts and Canofketchup.

[Shout out to my Cousin Bern]

Does it really make sense that SLU would drop that much? Seems unlikely.

[23won]

Jul 9, 2014 15:18:49 GMT -5 Shout out to my Cousin Bern said:

Does it really make sense that SLU would drop that much? Seems unlikely.

They lost 5 senior starters who logged most of the minutes last year, so given the league's competitiveness, I'd say yes.

[broderickpresident]

Jul 9, 2014 12:46:38 GMT -5 lwc4591 said:

How anyone believes St. Joe's can finish in the top 10 is living in denial or doesn't realize there is no 5 year plan for Galloway, Roberts and Canofketchup.

Roberts, by the way, has looked great with the 76ers in Orlando. He might just catch on sonewhere (at least in time)

[Shout out to my Cousin Bern]

Jul 9, 2014 16:06:58 GMT -5 23won said:

Jul 9, 2014 15:18:49 GMT -5 Shout out to my Cousin Bern said:

Does it really make sense that SLU would drop that much? Seems unlikely.

They lost 5 senior starters who logged most of the minutes last year, so given the league's competitiveness, I'd say yes.

That could definitely be the case. I just expect them to be consistently good.

[ltrain38]

Not sure who they've brought in, so I'm hardly an expert, but I feel like I'm the only person who doesn't buy GW this season. If they haven't somehow replaced Armwood and Creek, I can't see them as a top 4 or 5 team in the A-10.

[23won]

Jul 10, 2014 10:17:13 GMT -5 ltrain38 said:

Not sure who they've brought in, so I'm hardly an expert, but I feel like I'm the only person who doesn't buy GW this season. If they haven't somehow replaced Armwood and Creek, I can't see them as a top 4 or 5 team in the A-10.

Larsen 6'10" and Garino 6' 6" were clearly their best players by year end.  They are being heavily followed by NBA scouts and IMO will get drafted.

McDonald and Savage are one of the best returning backcourts.  Savage had an injury during the season and was on a tear before then.

Kopriva is 6'8" and will score more now that he will get more PT and shots.

They likely brought in some solid recruits, but even without that I'd venture a bet that these 5 should earn an NCAA bid.

[luhoopsfan]

it's hard to say, not knowing the landscape of the rest of the NCAA, but how many NCAA teams do we believe are in our league this year? I have to think Dayton and VCU are strong candidates, but after that....are we a 6-bid league or a 2-bid league this year? Or somewhere in between?

[MisterD]

Those sound like the right corners of the bell curve with 4 as the assumption.

[a10champion15]

I think your right. I would be shocked if we got 6 again. I also lean towards us remaining around 4 this year maybe 5 if there is a surprise in the conference tournament.

I see about 7 teams right now that I think have a legitimate shot at the tourney. VCU, Dayton, GW, UMass, Richmond, URI and La Salle.

VCU and Dayton seem more than likely to return. VCU will be a level above the rest of the league in my opinion. Dayton lost some players but I was never to thrilled about Sanford or Kavanaugh. GW and UMass have some question marks. However if it comes down to coaching I trust Lonergan much more than Kellogg. The holes to be about the same for both teams. However, I think Chaz is a huge loss. Their season in my opinion hinges on a transfer, Jabarie Hinds. GW has a good recruiting class, Savage will be back from injury and their front court while not very deep you could a make a cause for Larsen and Garino being a couple of best big men in the conference. Lonergan had an issue with depth last year as well, the same will be the case this year but the guy is a very good coach.

In my opinion if any team makes a case this year besides from the hopefully returnees its URI. URI like GW last year filled all of their holes. They will have one of the best and deepest front courts next year. Got a huge commitment from Jared Terrell to go alongside E.C Matthews. They have a number of roles players at nearly every position. They have the talent and skill to get back to the NCAA. This year we will learn if Hurley can turn URI program around.

Richmond I have my issues with. While they have Kendall Anthony who is fantastic they aren't deep at the guard position whatsoever. Sheandre Jones will get his chance to shine. Unfortunately they only have two quality guards in my opinion which is a problem. Also while they have some quality big men like Nelson, Allen and now Cline none of them really wow me. This team hinges on it's freshmen and only has one senior. While Mooney is a good coach I just don't see Richmond returning to the NCAA tourney.

We already been over La Salle a million times. Rothstein expectations are right in my mind. It is fair to put us at seventh and maybe being a potentially sleeper seeing how our guard situation turns out to be. I think DJ and Khalid will have better years and will be important pieces to this season. Said it before I will say it again Zack and Wright are and will be the best big man duo in the A10.

[23won]

Jul 11, 2014 8:00:36 GMT -5 luhoopsfan said:

it's hard to say, not knowing the landscape of the rest of the NCAA, but how many NCAA teams do we believe are in our league this year? I have to think Dayton and VCU are strong candidates, but after that....are we a 6-bid league or a 2-bid league this year? Or somewhere in between?

Locks:

VCU
UD

Both are capable of being in Top 20 much of the year.

High Side of Bubble (likely to make it):

GW -- probably a team ranked in many top 35ish range


Mid- Bubble (all have to prove themselves, with likely order of finish behind top 3 below) 

La Salle -  we ca finish 4 if our D is as good as I think it can be; Navy SEAL traning a plus!
UMass - 5 spot; solid talent, but have more positional and bench gaps than lat year. Question -  will Gordon issue be a team distraction?
Richmond - probably an NIT team; Anthony and Jones are great but may have challenges with A10 length (see LSU '13/'14); I see a big jump in production from Allen and Davis
URI -  good talent, good coach, but still need to prove upper echelon status in league; NIT likely

Unless the mid-bubble teams kill each other and they all settle close to .500 in A10 play, I bet we get 4 teams in without issue.  5 is possible, but things have to break our way like recent history;  odds say we are not due for such great luck again.  I think 6 is a stretch; see odds point above. 

LSU Take-Away.  The key for us is to win at home convincingly (very possible) and finish with a +2 or 3 A10 road record.

Monster Break Out Year Prediction -- SBU's Ndoye.  Not sure why he was overlooked for Rothstein's First Team list.  Did I miss something here?  Has he decided to play in Europe?  By the end of last season, he was the last guy I wanted to see oppose us.  Made huge strides.  Very athletic for a big man.   If he can reign in the emotion, he will be wildly effective.

Let me know what you think. 

[a10champion15]

Ndoye is a gem in my opinion. I think Lalanne may be the best center in the league but Ndoye is fantastic. Could have a huge year.

Thats one thing we don't talk about enough is our defense. We were 125th with an SOS of 51. I think that is the hidden story behind this team this year. We were decent defensively last year we just simply didn't have the offense. Plus the defensively liability of Garland. Everyone underrates how good DJ and Khalid are defensively. Not many guards get past them. Zack is great in the interior and since sophomore year Wright has gotten better but still isn't great. Price and Cleon are a very good size and should defend better than Garland. Amar should also be a decent defender he works hard at it but is nothing special. All in all I think our defense is what will win us a number of games this year.

The player I have on breakout watch on our squad is Khalid Lewis. He is our best defender and creats a ton of pressure. He has had time to gel with the team and according to Jon and from what I heard he is healthy. Here a little stat line for you even though I didn't think kid was 100% healthy this season. From URI game to UMass game where he actually played this was his stat line. in 19.8 minutes 4.8 points 30 FG% 1.3 steals 1.8 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.5 turnovers 82% FT line. With him being healthy and practicing his shot his efficiency should improve.

[durenduren]

Agreed with all the Ndoye talk. Really growing into that lengthy frame, matching that with athleticism that's frightening .

[jellybean]

Jul 11, 2014 11:38:10 GMT -5 a10champion15 said:

The player I have on breakout watch on our squad is Khalid Lewis. He is our best defender and creats a ton of pressure. He has had time to gel with the team and according to Jon and from what I heard he is healthy. Here a little stat line for you even though I didn't think kid was 100% healthy this season. From URI game to UMass game where he actually played this was his stat line. in 19.8 minutes 4.8 points 30 FG% 1.3 steals 1.8 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.5 turnovers 82% FT line. With him being healthy and practicing his shot his efficiency should improve.

I don't want to come down on the young man too hard. I am certainly rooting for him and I am cutting him some slack because of the rustiness and injuries at the start of the season. But....

If you are going to cherry pick those games in the middle of the season (where I think you are saying he's healthy and showing what he can do.) then how do you explain the last 9 games after that sample to finish the year? In the last 9 games, he shot 3-14/0-3/3-4 with 5 rebounds,6 assists with 8 turnovers and zero steals. He averaged 1.0 pts.

As I stated in another post, according to basketball-reference, his OWS (offensive win share) was -.7. In other words, he helped the opposition. Defensively, he was +.4 which was the lowest on the team for players with over 300 minutes. His net contribution for the year was +.3. His Win Share/per 40 was -.28 ( +1.0 is AVERAGE). For his combined 2 season, he is -.8 OWS, 1.3 DWS, .4 WS and .012 WS/40. His career Offensive rating is 81.7 ( pts per 100 poss) and defensive rating is 105.7. So theorically, for a game with 100 possessions by both teams, his team would lose 105.7 to 81.7 with him.

Hey, the slate is clean I guess for the upcoming season. Hope he does have a breakout year. We will need it.

[a10champion15]

Jul 13, 2014 11:21:22 GMT -5 jellybean said:

Jul 11, 2014 11:38:10 GMT -5 a10champion15 said:

The player I have on breakout watch on our squad is Khalid Lewis. He is our best defender and creats a ton of pressure. He has had time to gel with the team and according to Jon and from what I heard he is healthy. Here a little stat line for you even though I didn't think kid was 100% healthy this season. From URI game to UMass game where he actually played this was his stat line. in 19.8 minutes 4.8 points 30 FG% 1.3 steals 1.8 rebounds 2.3 assists 1.5 turnovers 82% FT line. With him being healthy and practicing his shot his efficiency should improve.

I don't want to come down on the young man too hard. I am certainly rooting for him and I am cutting him some slack because of the rustiness and injuries at the start of the season. But....

If you are going to cherry pick those games in the middle of the season (where I think you are saying he's healthy and showing what he can do.) then how do you explain the last 9 games after that sample to finish the year? In the last 9 games, he shot 3-14/0-3/3-4 with 5 rebounds,6 assists with 8 turnovers and zero steals. He averaged 1.0 pts.

As I stated in another post, according to basketball-reference, his OWS (offensive win share) was -.7. In other words, he helped the opposition. Defensively, he was +.4 which was the lowest on the team for players with over 300 minutes. His net contribution for the year was +.3. His Win Share/per 40 was -.28 ( +1.0 is AVERAGE). For his combined 2 season, he is -.8 OWS, 1.3 DWS, .4 WS and .012 WS/40. His career Offensive rating is 81.7 ( pts per 100 poss) and defensive rating is 105.7. So theorically, for a game with 100 possessions by both teams, his team would lose 105.7 to 81.7 with him.

Hey, the slate is clean I guess for the upcoming season. Hope he does have a breakout year. We will need it.

I wasn't really cherry picking his games. His minutes completely dropped off after the Saint Louis game. I just have the impression he is a better player than appeared on the court last year. I never thought he was a 100% and I want a full impression of him this season. I don't think he will be some killer guards on the offensive end but I do think he is a very good defender and his shot should improve. Will see though. I am just inclined to pick him as our breakout candidate for some reason or another.

[23won]

I think Lewis could improve immensely in the off season by working on two things:

1) squaring up his shot, especially off of penetration

2) working on trying not to force too much off of the dribble.

On the shooting point, I found him far too often shooting across his body or in an off-balance force. Pretty simple solution. Work on the mechanics and G institues a rule that if he can't square up, he doesn't shoot and if he does he sits.

On the dribble point, I think he was trying to do way too much and needs to have some fallback to driblle out of trouble and reset. Of course, last year teams packed us in which made this a bigger problem than normal. If we can make the 3 ball, the lanes will be more open so dumb turnovers should drop but the point is still valid. He can't dribble with a mindset that there is a finish or a turnover. He has to cut down on TOs. If he can, he can run the point for much of the game and we'd be less dependent on having Amar or Johnnie step up immediately.

[explorerman]

Defense will not be the reason we will win more games this season.

The rapid improvement in our offense will. Defensively our team was good but inconsistent. Lanky, athletic big men absolutely kill us. Too tall and athletic for Wright and too quick for Zack.. With that being said, I would rather teams to work inside than outside...

Stukes I would expect to be a defense first PG.. He has the length to cause problems for the shorter PG.. Foot speed will be a key and was an issue coming out of HS.. Did he spend his offseason on it? We shall see because quickness is something that can be worked on and improved with a trainer especially over a year!

Plus if defensive speed is an issue then Shuler could come on as out of HS, he was quicker than Stukes..

Giannini had a good quote to pro scouts who were concerned about Duren's lack of foot speed.. Paraphrasing, he said that if he is so slow, how come throughout his collegiate career if was never consistently beaten off the dribble.. Stukes was similar in HS as he consistently got the basket whenever he wanted.. You would think a player that isn't quick would have a hard time getting around quicker players...

Price is another one.. He is quick enough at the start to get you on his hip and once he does that.. He is too strong

[a10champion15]

Jul 15, 2014 9:21:16 GMT -5 explorerman said:

Defense will not be the reason we will win more games this season.

The rapid improvement in our offense will. Defensively our team was good but inconsistent. Lanky, athletic big men absolutely kill us. Too tall and athletic for Wright and too quick for Zack.. With that being said, I would rather teams to work inside than outside...

Stukes I would expect to be a defense first PG.. He has the length to cause problems for the shorter PG.. Foot speed will be a key and was an issue coming out of HS.. Did he spend his offseason on it? We shall see because quickness is something that can be worked on and improved with a trainer especially over a year!

Plus if defensive speed is an issue then Shuler could come on as out of HS, he was quicker than Stukes..

Giannini had a good quote to pro scouts who were concerned about Duren's lack of foot speed.. Paraphrasing, he said that if he is so slow, how come throughout his collegiate career if was never consistently beaten off the dribble.. Stukes was similar in HS as he consistently got the basket whenever he wanted.. You would think a player that isn't quick would have a hard time getting around quicker players...

Price is another one.. He is quick enough at the start to get you on his hip and once he does that.. He is too strong

I think you are right on point. I do think defense will better this season and it will be the difference in a couple of games. However, defense is always important so it is hard to really put a number on it. I am trying to get some word on Shuler but it has been very limited. I think Stukes is going to be fine and I do think Shuler will help. How much will he help? I have no idea but you are right from what I seen and heard he is QUICK. Price has the quickness and size. He will be a very special player for La Salle. The two players I am concerned about are Tony Washington and Cleon. I am not sure if Tony going to contribute. His recruiting profile while sounds promising I haven't heard close to anything about him besides that he is practicing with the team and is eligible. Cleon while I know is a quality player I am concerned that the jump in competition might hurt him. He not a player that going to lead this team. He going to need to be assisted in order to get the most out of him and a spread offense will help if Amar and Khalid shot improved. I am pretty high on this team because I said it before the ceiling for this team is higher than I think any of G other rosters. He has outstanding big men, high impact guards, good defenders and for once a little bit of depth. 

GOOD NEWS: I heard that Sakhniuk "the nuke" is eligible this season. I am trying to get this confirmed. Interesting enough he comes from the same team as Alex Len and Gerun(once a West Virginia commit). Alex Len was a fantastic player at Maryland and now plays for the suns. 

[lwc4591]

A10 I would not be very concerned about Cleon Roberts he will be an above average A10 player when all is said and done. Washington is a good question because he is hard to get information on but he did play with a Georgetown recruit and he more than held his own with his teammate usually always being the leading rebounder, shot blocker and occasional scorer. The "Nuke" is a fundamnetals type guy who I like because he plays strong, has good footwork, tough around basket and can hit from 15-20 feet. There are no guarantees but I think all three will add something and most of it will be good provided we give them sometime to adjust to college game. Cleon has already had time to adjust so he has a clear advantage entering the season.

[23won]

To clarify my earlier point, I think our offense will be better and help us win for sure, but I still believe that if we are in amazing shape (see SEAL point) and G uses depth, we can really present problems with defensive intensity. If he can do this, we can finish high IMO. My only concern is that G may resort to playing his favotite top 7 and try to redshirt Shuler and Sakhniuk. I'd prefer to see that depth play often and play lights out while in.

Dayton used a deep bench and had some newcomers that really came on as the season progressed. Early on, they opened A10 play at 1-5. At year end, they were in the elite 8. They played 9 guys in mid teens or higher and had 2 other guys who made contributions. See where I am headed? Use the bench, stay fresh, push the D, create easy baskets, WIN.

[explorerman]

Jul 15, 2014 10:51:51 GMT -5 lwc4591 said:

A10 I would not be very concerned about Cleon Roberts he will be an above average A10 player when all is said and done. Washington is a good question because he is hard to get information on but he did play with a Georgetown recruit and he more than held his own with his teammate usually always being the leading rebounder, shot blocker and occasional scorer. The "Nuke" is a fundamnetals type guy who I like because he plays strong, has good footwork, tough around basket and can hit from 15-20 feet. There are no guarantees but I think all three will add something and most of it will be good provided we give them sometime to adjust to college game. Cleon has already had time to adjust so he has a clear advantage entering the season.

I agree with this. I am not nearly as worried about Cleon.

To be open, I am more worried about Price meeting some of the expectations that people are expecting of him. Roberts was one of the Top 50 Shooting Guards, by all recruiting agencies (and was a Top 150 overall via Rivals)coming out of High School with some big schools looking at him.

He absolutely doesn't need feeding him the ball.. One of his strongest attributes a couple years ago was him using his length and athleticism to get to the basket off the dribble. I, tally an restriction of "stat stuffing" to GA Southern playing a structured offense that called numerous set plays setting him for jump shots and him deferring to a upperclassmen guard (yes, that does come into play for basketball teams) even if he had more ability.

Shot creation from the backcourt will not be a concern this year..

[calidelphia]

Rothstein was at the GW practice yesterday and seems to be pretty impressed with the squad at this point.
_________________________________

Greetings from Foggy Bottom. Here for GW practice. Colonials should be one of the better teams in the A 10.

Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein

Two GW freshmen to put in bold print? Paul Jorgensen and Darian Bryant. Both should see time off the bench in 14-15. Ready to contribute.

Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

Questions for GW --- 1. Can they rebound? 2. Is their depth legitimate? 3. Can they stay healthy for an entire season?

Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

If Kevin Larsen played at a Big Ten or ACC school, he'd regularly be mentioned among the best big men in the country. 6-10 and SKILLED.

Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

Palpable buzz in DC surrounding GW freshman Yuta Watanabe. 6-9 and can REALLY run the floor. Going to play major minutes for the Colonials.

Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

GW needs quartet of McDonald/Savage/Garino/Larsen to average around 55 PPG. Averaged about 44 PPG last year. All potential All-A10 players.


Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

Early prediction on GW starting five --- Joe McDonald, Kethan Savage, Patricio Garino, John Kopriva, Kevin Larsen....


Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

Interesting nugget --- GW PG Joe McDonald didn't practice once last season due to a lingering hip injury. Will be much healthier in 14-15.


Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

The X-Factor for GW this season? Whoever plays PF. Colonials will be a different rebounding/shot blocking team post Isaiah Armwood.


Jon Rothstein @jonrothstein · 22h

Kethan Savage is a forgotten man in college basketball. Averaged just over 14 PPG for GW last year before a foot injury. Big time talent.